DAFC.net
Home 16 November 2018 
 Post Message  |  Top of Board  |  Go to Topic  |  Search  |  Twitter Updates  |  Log In   Forum Rules  |  Newer Topic  |  Older Topic  |  end 
[ please login to use the Like feature ]
 Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: FergPar  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:05

Irn-Bru Cup.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home
Topic Originator: BerkshirePar  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:06

Bohemians v Sutton....ha



Post Edited (Tue 11 Sep 13:07)
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home
Topic Originator: Ronaldo  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:07


Gutted. Wanted Coleraine away.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home
Topic Originator: SAP PAR  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:07

Quote:

BerkshirePar, Tue 11 Sep 13:06

Peterhead v Sutton....ha


It’s bohemians v Sutton
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home
Topic Originator: General Zod  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:08

What a pointless cup 😏
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home
Topic Originator: BerkshirePar  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:08

YSAP PAR wrote:

>
Quote:

BerkshirePar, Tue 11 Sep 13:06
>
> Peterhead v Sutton....ha

>
> It’s bohemians v Sutton

Yep - Was only half watching! Misheard
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home
Topic Originator: WORST  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:10

Trust us to get the big team.



[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: General Zod  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:20

Bohs v Sutton. I wonder how many will go to that? A Scottish cup and that.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: back oh the net  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 13:24

***** draw tbh

Come on ye pars ⚽️
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: helensburghpar  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 14:10

Great draw. Going on holiday that day and not missing anything decent.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: Sliema Par  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 15:07

Are they the representatives from Hawaii!?

Why not?Everyone else is in it!
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: Parallel Lines  
Date:   Tue 11 Sep 22:05

Back to the youth squad then.

I looked for my pet in all the books on animals and birds and then I found it in the Book of Revelations.Marty Feldman
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: General Zod  
Date:   Wed 12 Sep 05:43

They’ll not be any worse than the utter garbage that was served up on Saturday.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: Playup_Pompey  
Date:   Wed 12 Sep 09:24

Same old Alloa, always cheating

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: 1970par  
Date:   Wed 12 Sep 09:28

Away at the Scotland game in Israel when this is played so not missing anything special, let’s hope we can get through then have an exciting draw in the next round
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: BlackLight  
Date:   Sat 15 Sep 00:49


That draw is so totally rigged, it's embarrassing.

5 non-Scottish teams in the pot and 4 of them draw each other and the other one travels to Scotland. There's no way that's a coincidence.

My guess is that Scottish clubs have been complaining about having to travel and the SPFL have rigged things accordingly.

I quite like having the non-Scottish clubs in this competition, it makes it a tiny bit less boring, but it's not much fun if you con't get to play them.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: RhinoPars  
Date:   Sat 15 Sep 11:18

Quote:

BlackLight, Sat 15 Sep 00:49


That draw is so totally rigged, it's embarrassing.

5 non-Scottish teams in the pot and 4 of them draw each other and the other one travels to Scotland. There's no way that's a coincidence.

My guess is that Scottish clubs have been complaining about having to travel and the SPFL have rigged things accordingly.

I quite like having the non-Scottish clubs in this competition, it makes it a tiny bit less boring, but it's not much fun if you con't get to play them.



The probability of getting two foreign only ties is higher than you might initially think. In this case, we are just interested in combinations of teams and you are not specifying who is at home, which foreign team plays what other foreign team or which of the five foreign teams would play against a Scottish side.

Ignoring the order of who is home or away there are 120 possible match combinations that can be drawn from the 16 teams (16!/[(16-2)!*2!]. There are also 10 possible combinations of the 5 foreign teams (AB AC AD AE, BC, BD, BE, CD, CE, DE). Thus I make it the chance of getting all foreign ties is 10/120 or 1 in 12.

Looking at it another way - assuming this might be a bit like the Monty Hall problem and you need to consider a-priori chances of getting two foreign teams out of five in a draw with eleven other sides (total 16). I get probabilities of two foreign sides at (5/16)*(4/15) = 8.333% and corresponding probabilities of all Scottish tie of (11/16)*(10/15) = 45.833% and probabilities of a foreign v Scottish tie of ((5/16)*(11/15)) for foreign team at home + ((11/16)*(5/15) for foreign team away) = 45.833%. 100/8.333 is 1 in 12.

Finally as a check I simulated 100 random last 16 draws (with 5 foreign and 11 Scottish teams) in Excel. 48 of my simulated draws had no all foreign ties, 44 had one all foreign tie and 8 had two all foreign ties. Obviously this is subject to sampling error in the same way if you toss a coin a 100 times you won't always get exactly 50 heads. My calculated probabilities however closely match the results of my 100 random draws suggesting my calculations are correct and there is a 1 in 12 chance of getting two all foreign ties.

While clearly the rarest of the three options, getting 2 all foreign ties is not that unusual. For me it seems a common enough outcome to rule out Blacklight's conspiracy theory that draw was clearly fixed.



Post Edited (Sat 15 Sep 12:33)
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: wetherby  
Date:   Sat 15 Sep 11:26

Lol - too much time on your hands out there Rhino Par - are the pubs shut!
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: Alloa at Home Irn Bru Cup
Topic Originator: RhinoPars  
Date:   Sat 15 Sep 11:49

:) Yes Wetherby - Pubs are shut but I think I will have a beer after that! Blacklight's post got me wondering what the odds were of this happening and I suspected it was a commoner outcome than you would intuitively initially think. It wasn't immediately obvious to me how to do this and so as a mental game for fun I wanted to see if I could work out what the odds were. As humans our intuition about probabilities is well known to be often wide of the mark; and I just suspected this might be the case here. I therefore wanted to check out likelihood of Blacklight's draw fixing hypothesis being true.

Almost forty years ago I did once look at the chances of Celtic and Rangers being drawn together in cup competitions; and interestingly for the period I looked at back then I recall they were drawn together far less frequently than one would have expected by chance. That was for a time before live draws on TV's using unmarked balls with team names inside.



Post Edited (Sat 15 Sep 12:06)
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Top of Board  |  Forum List  |  Threaded View   Forum Rules  |  Newer Topic  |  Older Topic  |  end 


f=[], target=[], forgotpass=[] ,
 Forum List  |  Need a Login? Register Here 
 User Login
 User Name:
 Password:
 Remember my login:
   
 Forgot Your Password?
Enter your email address or user name below and a new password will be sent to the email address associated with your profile.
Security : type 'pars' in the box:
email: