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 Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Mon 22 Jun 08:25

Every football fan is familiar with the concept of home advantage and the various explanations for the phenomenon - the crowd acting as a "12th man, the home team obliged to adopt a more positive approach in front of its own fans, referees influenced by the crowd giving the home team more decisions, familiarity of surroundings, etc. all contributing to the overall stats which show that the ratio of home to away wins is 3:2.

After the Villa - Chelsea game on MOTD2 last night, Gabby Logan commented that Villa had only gathered 1pt from their last two home games and wondered whether this might be down to a loss of "home advantage" due to playing behind closed doors. Of course two games is hardly enough to draw any valid conclusions and Villa are near the foot of the Premiership precisely because they've struggled to win games - home or away - all season.

There are games currently being played behind closed doors in Europe's four major leagues right now and It will be really interesting to see if the 3:2 ratio holds up when they've been completed. My guess is that home advantage will not disappear completely, but it will be eroded. Maybe OPTA or a similar organisation will compile the stats?



Not your average Sunday League player.
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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: neils  
Date:   Mon 22 Jun 08:35

Well at the top level, the pitches are pretty much the same as well, so no slopes, muddy pitches etc.

Some (all?) Of the teams are flying up just before kick off, so the routine and travel is pretty much the same as a home game (no delays, private charter planes)

Obviously no fans, and the quirky stuff like Bournemouth (small ground) or West Ham (athletics ground) are discounted more.
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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: wee eck  
Date:   Mon 22 Jun 08:43

Aren't there stats already suggesting referees are issuing relatively more cards to home teams since games have been played behind closed doors?
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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Fri 26 Jun 08:12

It's still early days, but does any anorak have any stats for home wins v away wins, for closed door games so far? I read on another forum that home wins were down to 51% in the Bundesliga, but adding in the top flight games from the Premiership, La Liga and Serie A, will give far more reliable stats.



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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Sat 11 Jul 06:22

I decided to compile some stats to determine how significant a factor the lack of fans is on what we call home advantage. I looked at the results of the top two tiers in England, Germany, Italy and Spain, from the restart after the lockdown until the end of June.

A total of 367 matches produced 135 home wins, 125 away wins and 107 draws. If we exclude the draws, home wins account for 52%. That's a significant drop on games with fans, which previous studies have found to be 60%.

There were wild variations across the different leagues. e.g. the Bundesliga had 25 home wins and 36 away wins, whereas Bundesliga 2 had 34H v 18A. Perhaps that was due to the lower league normally having smaller crowds anyway, so the home teams are less affected by closed door games those in the top flight? The opposite trend was apparent in Spain; La Liga 23H, 13A; La Liga2 15H, 21A, so my little theory falls flat on its face straight away. :-(

I'll update the results once all the closed door games are completed, for anyone who is interested in this anoraky stuff. :-)



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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Sat 11 Jul 10:05

You would really need a full season of clubs playing every other club home and away with no fans to have some valid results.

Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd
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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: General Zod  
Date:   Sat 11 Jul 10:19

I believe the term “12th man” is no longer acceptable. It’s now 12th person. I honestly wish I was joking.
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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Sat 11 Jul 15:19

Quote:

The One Who Knocks, Sat 11 Jul 10:05

You would really need a full season of clubs playing every other club home and away with no fans to have some valid results.


I can't disagree with you, TOWK, but I sure as hell hope we won't be able to complete the valid survey you allude to. 🙂

Depending on the number of games in the survey though, it can give the stats some validity.



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 Re: Home Advantage No More?
Topic Originator: ianbd6  
Date:   Sun 12 Jul 19:34

I bumped into a Bradford City supporting friend of mine and we got talking about the past season for both our clubs. We also talked about the football at the moment with no spectators. He said that City's home performances this last season were pretty poor and he put it down to the home players being nervy because the crowd get on their backs as soon as a mistake is made.there was a player on some programme I forget which one but he said that playing without crowds would help some players because some freeze in front of noisy crowds. The AFC Fylde chairman said in his latest online interview that he had been told that the National League could be ready for kick off in September with crowds of a third capacity.the atmosphere would be pretty flat but it does sound optimistic.
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