DAFC.net
Home 19 September 2021 
 Post Message  |  Top of Board  |  Go to Topic  |  Search  |  Twitter Updates  |  Log In   Forum Rules  |  Newer Topic  |  Older Topic  |  end 
[ please login to use the Like feature ]
 45 points
Topic Originator: obiwanyouknowme  
Date:   Fri 5 Feb 12:07

Boredom has clearly set in during this lockdown and well I have been looking at previous seasons and tried to apply math and work out how many points will secure us 2nd place and the figure I have come to is 45 points

This is an average of 15 points each 3rd of the season.

So first 3rd - 18 points - 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat

So far second 3rd - 6 points - 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat

6 points needed from our next 4 games for my projection to work out obviously I want more and it is achievable with home games against Dundee and Alloa whilst being away to Arbroath and QOS.

Will my prediction run true



Post Edited (Fri 05 Feb 12:13)
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Fri 5 Feb 23:00

I suppose it depends on how you work the arithmetic ?

Dundee United were second on 65 points from 36 games - the last season completed, 2018/19.

That`s 1.8 points per game.

Extrapolated to a 27 game season and that calculates as between 48/49 points.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: Stanza  
Date:   Fri 5 Feb 23:19


Dundee United were second on 65 points from 36 games - the last season completed, 2018/19.

That`s 1.8 points per game.

Extrapolated to a 27 game season and that calculates as between 48/49 points."


But that season United would still have finished second with 57 points, equivalent to 42/43 over a shortened season. (Of course if they had got fewer points then the teams immediately below them might have got more, so the calculation is not foolproof!)

Two seasons earlier, Hibs finished 3rd with 70 points, equivalent to 52/53 points over a shortened season.

There really is no point in aiming for a certain number of points, other than 3 points from the next match.

_________________

Support Dunfermline Athletic Disabled Supporters` Club (it will cost you nothing) when you shop online with one of 4000 retailers and insurance firms etc
http://www.easyfundraising.org.uk/causes/dadsc
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Sat 6 Feb 11:35

Just proves how dubious these projected arithmetical calculations are.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Sun 7 Feb 11:12

A trawl through the six completed seasons since the Championship was setup finds the following second place points total.

67 - 70 - 70 - 60 - 62 - 65.

Total = 394 points

Average = 65.6 points for 36 game season.

Extrapolates to 49.24 points for 27 game season, say 50 points required to be in second place ?

Maybe`s aye........then again, maybe`s naw ?

Interesting to note that Livingston who achieved the lowest of these second places with 62 points went on to win promotion. Hamilton likewise on 67 points.

Whereas, Hibs and Falkirk achieved 70 points but did not win promotion.

In other words.................predicting football positions on previous stats is not a precise science !!!



Post Edited (Sun 07 Feb 11:14)
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: obiwanyouknowme  
Date:   Wed 3 Mar 07:51

As posted previously I have predicted that 45 points will give us/whoever 2nd place.

Fixtures to date show that breaking the 45 points down to 15 per 3rd means that as it stand after the 2nd round of games only 3 clubs can achieve 30 points.

Hearts already have and Raith have 2 chances the 3rd team would either be us or Dundee.

Hearts have played 18 and currently sit on 39 and will win the league

Raith have 27 so need to take 3 points from 1 of the 2 games in hand against either Ayr (H) or Inverness (H)

Ourselves have 27 from 17 and would need to take 3 points against Dundee (H)

Dundee have 24 from 16 so need to win both games in hand against us (A) and Ayr (H)

18 points from our last 10 games. Can we do it.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: parathletic  
Date:   Wed 3 Mar 15:13

We`ve taken 13 from the last 10 so need to improve.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: obiwanyouknowme  
Date:   Sun 14 Mar 12:20

Still sticking my neck out here and going to go with 45 points securing 2nd place.

With that being said. Hearts are already there so in theory are champions.

We are the only club to have won an average of 15 points per 9 games.

Can we pick up 15 points from our last 9 games? 5 home, 4 away

Home
Inverness (H) - Sat 20/3
Dundee (A) - Sat 27/3 - BBC Scotland
Raith (A) - Tue 30/3 - BBC Scotland
Hearts (H) - Sat 3/4 - May be changed for Scottish cup Rd 3
Ayr (A) - Sat 10/4
QOTS (H) - Sat 17/4 - May be changed for Scottish cup Rd 4
Arbroath (H) - Sat 24/4 - May be changed for Scottish Cup Quarter Final
Alloa (A) - Fri 30/4

Dundee (H - Date TBC)



Post Edited (Sun 14 Mar 19:28)
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: Berry  
Date:   Sun 14 Mar 17:50

It’s the classic take one game at a time starting with Inverness which will be a tough but very important game.

Those looking ahead would see this as a must win when you look at the next three being Dundee, Raith and Hearts and odds are we will be dropping points.

The last four games of the season have fallen nicely for us, whilst no game is an easy one you can’t complain with that tail end.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: Polt  
Date:   Sun 14 Mar 19:46

Wouldn't quite agree with that Berry, more than likely the last 2 before final Dundee game especially will be difficult games as both teams fighting for survival in the league. That's usually when you see some suprize results

Post Edited (Sun 14 Mar 19:47)
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: obiwanyouknowme  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 13:21

So many moons ago I made a prediction that 45 points will be what it takes to finish 2nd

So by that theory I can confirm the below in my head that is it

Hearts are now champions
Alloa, Arbroath, Morton and Ayr wont finish 2nd as they can’t get 45 points.

Queen of the south will need to win there last 5

We will need to win 5 of our last 6

Inverness will need to win there last 5

Dundee will need to win 4 of the last 6

Raith need to win 3 of the last 5

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: parsfan97  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 13:32

2nd ffs wake up and smell the coffee we are miles off it

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: buffy  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 13:37

I think yer needing a wee cuddle Parsfan97 to get aw that anger oot ye. 😊

buffysbuns.wordpress.com
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: parathletic  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 13:39

It`s conceivable that we could be 5 points off a relegation playoff place come Saturday night.I`m not saying it`s going to happen but we could end up in some squeaky bum games with relegation playoffs still a possibility with 2 games to go if we don`t win one of our next 3 games (Hearts, Ayr & Dundee) Not sure how it came to this!

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: 1985Par  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 13:41

The arithmetic aside, we`re just not good enough. Raith showed us up for what we are. Hopeless. We got off to a good start and when Dow, Turner and Thomas clicked we looked half-decent. It`s just as well we did accumulate some points early on and it`s a short season otherwise i would be looking down the way.

I`ll be quite relieved if we`re in this league next season. We`re not in the 4 best teams in this league and do not deserve to be in the play-offs.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: obiwanyouknowme  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 13:46

Parsfan97 obviously can’t read

The original post was put up many moons ago and I was being hopeful like the rest of us

The new post above was to merely point out that my prediction won’t be far off.

I don’t need to wake up nor do I need to smell coffee as I am fully aware that we are miles off it please review the multiple threads that I have posted in.

I do however think Parsfan97 can maybe do with some medication to take the edge of his/hers anger

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: Indiapar  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 14:14

If they pick it up we will finish 4th. At best we will be 3rd.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: eastendalloapar  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 14:57

Imagine it's the last game of the season, we have to beat Alloa and hope that Arbroath lose.

matt forsyth
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 15:21


"We will need to win 5 of our last 6"

Premature speculation - tomorrow is 1st April.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: obiwanyouknowme  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 15:33

I never said we would win 5 out of 6

I was making reference to the prediction I made that 45 points would guarantee second place and if we were to do it we would need to win 5 out of 6 which we all know will not happen

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 15:38

OK - apologies for misinterpretation.

I suspect they`ll be dancing in the streets of Raith when 2nd place is secured.

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: obiwanyouknowme  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 15:55

Yeah no doubt they will can’t see them not finishing second.

Another game on the TV for us to be humiliated

[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: summeragent  
Date:   Wed 31 Mar 23:08

Quote:

eastendalloapar, Wed 31 Mar 14:57

Imagine it's the last game of the season, we have to beat Alloa and hope that Arbroath lose.


Worst nightmare!! We wouldn’t beat Alloa away. They will be relegated by then and have nothing to play for. We will play worse than usual with our grim away record.

Can’t see me sleeping tonight now 🤨!!
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Re: 45 points
Topic Originator: Polt  
Date:   Thu 1 Apr 00:13

Quote:

summeragent, Wed 31 Mar 23:08

Quote:

eastendalloapar, Wed 31 Mar 14:57

Imagine it's the last game of the season, we have to beat Alloa and hope that Arbroath lose.


Worst nightmare!! We wouldn’t beat Alloa away. They will be relegated by then and have nothing to play for. We will play worse than usual with our grim away record.

Can’t see me sleeping tonight now 🤨!!


Seriously it is worrying. People saying give it time...we are running out of time and matches in which to gain the points.
Since we last beat Rovers we are getting progressively worse. We could end up in league 1. That is a serious threat and we have a team that it doesn't matter as majority will not be here....that's not meant as a dig at the players. It all rests at the door of managerial staff.
[IP address logged]
Report Abuse   Reply To This Message
 Top of Board  |  Forum List  |  Threaded View   Forum Rules  |  Newer Topic  |  Older Topic  |  end 


Rows: 0
 Forum List  |  Need a Login? Register Here 
 User Login
 User Name:
 Password:
 Remember my login:
   
 Forgot Your Password?
Enter your email address or user name below and a new password will be sent to the email address associated with your profile.
Security : type 'pars' in the box:
email:
© 2021-- DAFC.net