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 How bad are we?
Topic Originator: Gadgie59  
Date:   Sun 31 Oct 00:50

These numbers are based on what has been published on the BBC sport website for the Scottish Championship. I thought I’d compare ourselves with Morton, Arbroath and Raith Rovers; the data covers the 12 games played so far this season.

Apologies if the alignment is lost once this gets to the forum ...

These numbers are ‘average per game’; On-Target2 and Shots2 are opposition shots (average per game)
______________Shots__On-Target_Goals-For_Goals-Against____On-Target2___Shots2
Dunfermline____7.67____2.92______0.75______1.67_________3.83__________10.8
Morton________9.50____3.5_______0.75______1.25_________4.25__________11.42
Arbroath______11.25____5.0_______1.92______0.92_________2.83__________8.17
Raith_Rovers___9.83____4.0_______1.67______1.17_________3.75___________9.17

{so, on average teams get 2.83 shots on Arbroath’s goal; that’s less than 3 per game}

Using the above numbers it’s possible to calculate what percentage of shots on target produce goals (for and against) and also what percentage of shots produce goals (for and against)

These are:____________FOR_______________AGAINST
_____________On-Target___Shots_______On-Target___Shots
Dunfermline_____25.68%___9.78%________43.6%___15.46%
Morton_________21.43%___7.87%________29.4%___10.95%
Arbroath________38.40%__17.07%________32.51%__11.26%
Raith Rovers_____41.75%__16.99%________31.2%___12.76%

{so, for Morton, Arbroath & Raith, about 30% of on-target shots result in them conceding goals ..... for us almost 45%}

A couple of things I notice from this data is that other teams get more shots at Morton than they do at us, both just shots and shots-on-target.
However, in terms of actual goals conceded, Morton concede less goals (as a percentage of actual shots on their goal) than both Arbroath and Raith.
The other thing is how low our goal attempts actually are compared to Arbroath and Raith. Also, in terms of the number of shots on target, Arbroath are a lot better than Raith at stopping teams getting shots on goal. In fact, Raith’s numbers are pretty much the same as ours; just the rate at which they are conceding goals is over ten percentage points lower than us.

So, even though our rate of shots is better than Morton (but only slightly) the fact that we lose goals at almost “50% of shots on target” would seem to be a problem. Given that, perhaps(?), the general perception that our defence has improved a lot in recent games and lack of goals from the strikers is the big problem ..... is not the full picture? (I appreciate that the numbers will have been significantly affected by us conceding 4 goals to Arbroath).



Post Edited (Sun 31 Oct 01:22)
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 Re: How bad are we?
Topic Originator: Row_ZZ  
Date:   Sun 31 Oct 02:06

We are quite bad. Will take some doing to finish 8th or higher.

I Know There's Gonna Be (Good Times)
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 Re: How bad are we?
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sun 31 Oct 13:16

Better than Fort William, results-wise. Club spirit: rotten eggs.

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