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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Tue 19 Jul 23:34
I thought I’d devote a separate thread to this and base it on Elvis Lives’ remarks in the other thread.
Just looking at likely scenarii for now:
I’m assuming that Ross County will beat East Fife and win our group, in which case we need to beat Alloa to have a chance of being one of the three best group runners up.
I think Killie will likely finish on 10 points.
I think Hibs will score enough tomorrow to have a very good 2nd place.
Livi may thrash Kelty by at least 6.
What is more likely is Queen’s Park beating Hamilton – by a couple, say – in which case we need to match their result.
[edit- Raith may beat Aberdeen by the "wrong" number of goals, so that`s a possibility to be considered - the BBC table is wrong]
There may be other combinations of unlikely events (Killie losing to Stenny say) which improve our chances.
Post Edited (Tue 19 Jul 23:58)
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Wed 20 Jul 01:47
Hopefully, the Pars will win at home v Alloa to qualify in second place with 9 points and at least a +7 GD (assuming a one-goal win).
Killie should qualify as one of the second-placed teams with 10 points.
Hibs already have a +7 GD and host Morton tomorrow in Hibs` last game, with a win getting Hibs to 9 points. We`ll see what GD Hibs ends up with -- Morton can be stingy away. Also tomorrow in the same division, Falkirk visits Bonnyrigg Rose. A Falkirk loss would open a spot for another second-place team.
On the flip side, Annan Athletic will be the only team to qualify from its division since no second-place team can earn more than 8 points. Moreover, to get to 9 points with at least a +7 GD, Raith would have to win at Aberdeen and Airdrie would have to win at Arbroath. Neither one is likely to happen.
That leaves two pivotal games on Saturday in the last 2 divisions. First, Livi with 6 points and a +1 GD hosts Kelty. I don`t see Livi winning by 6+ goals. Second, Hamilton (+3 GD) hosts Queens Park (+5 GD) with each team on 6 points. I don`t see either team getting to a +7 GD.
Thus, if the Pars take care of their own business, that should be enough to the next round.
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Topic Originator: elvis_lives
Date: Wed 20 Jul 07:02
If results go our way on the Saturday chances are we would need to wait until the Sunday as the Aberdeen game is on TV.
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Topic Originator: par-91
Date: Wed 20 Jul 09:49
Quote:
elvis_lives, Wed 20 Jul 07:02
If results go our way on the Saturday chances are we would need to wait until the Sunday as the Aberdeen game is on TV.
If we win by 2 or more, the Aberdeen game is irrelevant. For Raith to match our GD, they’d have to win by the same number, which would mean Aberdeen’s GD would be worse than ours. If us and Raith both win by 1 and by the exact same score, we’d be level on everything down to goals scored. Not sure what the tie breaker is there?
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Topic Originator: JamesAndrew74
Date: Wed 20 Jul 09:50
Quote:
par-91, Wed 20 Jul 09:49
Quote:
elvis_lives, Wed 20 Jul 07:02
If results go our way on the Saturday chances are we would need to wait until the Sunday as the Aberdeen game is on TV.
If we win by 2 or more, the Aberdeen game is irrelevant. For Raith to match our GD, they’d have to win by the same number, which would mean Aberdeen’s GD would be worse than ours. If us and Raith both win by 1 and by the exact same score, we’d be level on everything down to goals scored. Not sure what the tie breaker is there?
I thought with only 3 places we wouldn’t get through
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Topic Originator: elvis_lives
Date: Wed 20 Jul 10:52
Quote:
par-91, Wed 20 Jul 09:49
Quote:
elvis_lives, Wed 20 Jul 07:02
If results go our way on the Saturday chances are we would need to wait until the Sunday as the Aberdeen game is on TV.
If we win by 2 or more, the Aberdeen game is irrelevant. For Raith to match our GD, they’d have to win by the same number, which would mean Aberdeen’s GD would be worse than ours. If us and Raith both win by 1 and by the exact same score, we’d be level on everything down to goals scored. Not sure what the tie breaker is there?
Just had a look it goes to away goals scored and then matches won.
So 1-0 we would win on away goals scored with our 2 to Rovers 1.
2-1, 3,2 to Rovers and we would be out.
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Topic Originator: par-91
Date: Wed 20 Jul 13:14
Quote:
JamesAndrew74, Wed 20 Jul 09:50
Quote:
par-91, Wed 20 Jul 09:49
Quote:
elvis_lives, Wed 20 Jul 07:02
If results go our way on the Saturday chances are we would need to wait until the Sunday as the Aberdeen game is on TV.
If we win by 2 or more, the Aberdeen game is irrelevant. For Raith to match our GD, they’d have to win by the same number, which would mean Aberdeen’s GD would be worse than ours. If us and Raith both win by 1 and by the exact same score, we’d be level on everything down to goals scored. Not sure what the tie breaker is there?
I thought with only 3 places we wouldn’t get through
I don’t think I’ve seen anyone say that, and I certainly haven’t. But do continue to make things up if you want.
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Wed 20 Jul 17:11
"Just looking at likely scenarii for now:"
I thought Italian was GG Riva`s area ?
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Topic Originator: dafc-chris1
Date: Wed 20 Jul 21:07
Morton lead Hibs 1-0 this could be massive
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Topic Originator: elvis_lives
Date: Wed 20 Jul 21:41
Well that was an unexpected surprise.
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Topic Originator: buffy
Date: Wed 20 Jul 21:49
Penalty shoot out finished
Hibs 1-3 Morton
”Buffy’s Buns are the finest in Fife”, J. Spence 2019”
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Topic Originator: saltonsgonagetu
Date: Wed 20 Jul 22:09
Falkirk 1-1 with Bonnyrigg won on pens
Hibs 1-1 with Morton lost on pens
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Topic Originator: elvis_lives
Date: Wed 20 Jul 22:19
Quote:
saltonsgonagetu, Wed 20 Jul 22:09
Falkirk 1-1 with Bonnyrigg won on pens
Hibs 1-1 with Morton lost on pens
got your winning and losing on penalties mixed up
Bonnyrigg lost on penalties and Morton won on penalties.
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Topic Originator: par-91
Date: Wed 20 Jul 22:36
Good result for us tonight. Realistically, only 3 teams can better us if we win on Saturday. If we win by 2 or more, only 2. So that should be enough. Still got to do our bit though - and we seem to have a habit of getting poor results against Alloa!
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Topic Originator: dpard
Date: Thu 21 Jul 07:05
From what I can see, a win should be enough barring some strange results elsewhere.
Group A - Aberdeen 9pts +9 gd
Raith 6pts +6 gd.
Could potentially come down to goal difference, i.e. if Raith win 1 nil they would have +7 and Aberdeen would have +8.
Group B - Partick and Killie most likely through on 10pts
Group D - out of the running
Group E - out of the running, if Airdrie beat Arbroath they finish on 10 pts but Arbroaths (9pts +6gd) gd will drop below 6 where ours is currently.
Group F - out of the running, can only finish on 8pts
Group G - Livi are on 6pts and +1 gd. Would need some score to be involved
Group H - Queen`s Park+ Hamilton both on 6 pts. Qp +5 and Hamilton + 3. Could potentially come down to gd.
The flame still burns
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Topic Originator: GJS93
Date: Thu 21 Jul 11:43
a penalty win could be enough now but it needs nearly every result on the day to go our way.
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Topic Originator: dafc-chris1
Date: Thu 21 Jul 12:07
Another scenario is if East Fife beat County and we beat Alloa we win group
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 21 Jul 13:37
It`s looking even bleaker for Hibs as they are being charged with fielding a suspended player last night so will probably lose the point they gained if found guilty. Stranraer are facing a similar charge.
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Topic Originator: Playup_Pompey
Date: Thu 21 Jul 13:37
Hibs will lose a point and Morton gain a point after Hibs played player who was suspended for last nights game
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Thu 21 Jul 13:48
Ref: dafc-chris1
Thu 21 Jul 12:07
`Another scenario is if East Fife beat County and we beat Alloa we win group`
----------------------------------------------------------------------
More than likely if Ross County field eleven Mr Blobbys.
Post Edited (Thu 21 Jul 13:54)
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Topic Originator: Playup_Pompey
Date: Thu 21 Jul 14:06
pretty sure would have said that about buckie taking points off county
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Topic Originator: dover par
Date: Thu 21 Jul 19:08
It’s by confirmed that Hibs result has been recorded as a 3-0 defeat
"Pressure is something you feel when you don't know what the hell you're doing."
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Thu 21 Jul 22:32
Ref: Playup_Pompey
Thu 21 Jul 14:06
`pretty sure would have said that about buckie taking points off county`
---------------------------------------------------------------------
You`re right, but I`d still be more confident if I saw the name `Blobby` several times on the County team sheet.
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Sat 23 Jul 15:47
After 40 mins or so,
Arbroath 1-0 Airdrie
Hamilton 1-0 Queens Park
Livi 1-0 Kelty
All good so far.
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Topic Originator: dpard
Date: Sat 23 Jul 17:03
Winning the bonus point, would`ve put us as 3rd best runner up too, on goal difference.
Can`t say we didn`t have chances
The flame still burns
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Topic Originator: jojo
Date: Sat 23 Jul 17:08
We need a fat , balding striker who does absolutely nothing in terms of work rate or running but when the ball lands at his feet or head he despatches the ball into the net a la Joey Harper
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Topic Originator: Raymie the Legend
Date: Sun 24 Jul 21:11
With Raith losing, QOS snatch the last place
It's bloody tough being a legend
Ron Atkinson - 1983
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Topic Originator: Ianoappar
Date: Sun 24 Jul 22:02
Queens snatch last place and get plum draw away to Rangers.
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Sun 24 Jul 22:17
Quote:
Ianoappar, Sun 24 Jul 22:02
Queens snatch last place and get plum draw away to Rangers.
That could have a big bearing on how the league turns out. Decent pay day for them, could allow them to strengthen their squad with a few more half decent players at this level. We had the chances to be in the draw and didn`t take them
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Sun 24 Jul 23:02
We got that plum draw last season & got slapped silly.
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: Parsweep
Date: Mon 25 Jul 07:22
Quote:
da_no_1, Sun 24 Jul 23:02
We got that plum draw last season & got slapped silly.
Aye we got slapped silly but got a big cheque.
OK we ( PG and the board) wasted that money , but I`m sure we wouldn`t mind another big cheque .
Even if it meant being slapped silly .
Bobvo
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Mon 25 Jul 07:24
Well I`d happily miss out on a big reaming for a few dollars more. Especially from them. Each to their own tho
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
Post Edited (Mon 25 Jul 07:24)
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Topic Originator: parsfan97
Date: Mon 25 Jul 08:23
Aye I’m sure the club are delighted at missing out on additional revenue
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Mon 25 Jul 08:24
Quote:
da_no_1, Mon 25 Jul 07:24
Well I`d happily miss out on a big reaming for a few dollars more. Especially from them. Each to their own tho
Really, you would prefer us not to get beat by 5 goals at Ibrox, and not have a nice six figure sum in the bank, and not add 4 solid, experienced pros to our team, but instead would prefer to see one of our rivals get that instead?
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Mon 25 Jul 09:10
No - I would much rather we got a winnable tie that gives us a chance to progress. Personally I hate the thought that any hope we have of signing good players so we can win any league relies on money handed to us on a silver platter by them & that we should be grateful receiving it.
We shouldn`t be budgeting for big-money cup-ties.
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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