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Topic Originator: WORST
Date: Mon 10 Dec 07:28
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Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Mon 10 Dec 08:53
Democracy - if it isn't already - will be officially dead in the country if Brexit doesn't happen.
I think that will be the case though and we will somehow find a way of weaseling out of it.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Mon 10 Dec 09:48
Official verdict in. Article 50 can be revoked at any time.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Bandy
Date: Mon 10 Dec 12:06
Excellent. Can we just revoke it and pretend that 2.5years never happened.
Please.
Thanks.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Mon 10 Dec 12:14
Not surprisingly the media report it as 6 British politicians that brought the case to ECJ. We all know it was 6 Scottish politicians who were thwarted at every step by English politicians
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Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Mon 10 Dec 12:38
Statement on its way. Expected to confirm the vote is being delayed.
When will this farce end ?
The good old days
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Mon 10 Dec 13:03
Vote confirmed as being delayed. Not sure what she hopes to achieve with that move. She doesn't really have scope to change the deal with the EU at the moment and I highly doubt she's going to convince enough in Parliament to get it through.
The defeat has to come at some point, might as well be now.
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Topic Originator: richie5401
Date: Mon 10 Dec 13:06
Get May out now.She is like an anchor to democracy.
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Mon 10 Dec 13:36
Quote:
londonparsfan, Mon 10 Dec 13:03
Vote confirmed as being delayed. Not sure what she hopes to achieve with that move. She doesn't really have scope to change the deal with the EU at the moment and I highly doubt she's going to convince enough in Parliament to get it through.
The defeat has to come at some point, might as well be now.
Statement at 15:30. Looks like it will be delayed. Absolute disgrace. Need rid of the whole lot of them.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Mon 10 Dec 14:36
There could be a vote to decide if the vote is delayed. That's how shambolic this has become.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 10 Dec 17:16
The most influential politician of the last 10 years? Surely Nigel Farage, a man who was never able to win a parliamentary seat at Wetsminster. Despite this, his UKIP grouping has forced a referendum, the result of which has paralysed UK politics for over two years.
It is ironic that a man unable to win a seat can be heard warning of the dangers to democracy, but that is the state of things at present. The UK's success as a country in the years ahead little matters whether we are in Europe or out, since a healthy, functioning society will fare well whatever its allegiances. Unfortunately the UK has long been rather less than that, and its gradual decline will continue whether we remain in Europe, become Rees-Mogg's cynical Singapore of the North Sea, or Corbyn's well-intended but probably doomed West Scandinavia. We have unfinished business from the 1640s regarding land ownership and inherited wealth, and no amount of Brexiting or Bremaining is addressing that.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Mon 10 Dec 18:03
It has been totally mishandled.
Who in their right mind given the trade balance would have taken a NO deal off the table?
If I am a German car maker, white goods maker or French farmer or Dutch flower/bulb grower would I be happy for the UK to decide on a NO deal?
By strengthening our commitment and making provision for a NO deal we would have caused a much more compliant EU to negotiate in good faith.
I am not a Trump fan but I can't help but wonder, given the same situation he would not have done it as I have suggested.
As soon as you take NO deal off the table you have lost ANY edge we might have had and the tragedy is there is almost no point in taking that stance now as Europe would not believe it.
As for May, I can't remember detesting a "politician" more.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 10 Dec 18:11
The Hard Brexiteers I interact with all seem to hate the EU, The Declaration of Human Rights, and have little time for the United Nations. Yet this distrust of international bodies completely evaporates when the magic letters WTO are spoken. It puzzles me that inward looking nationalists, determined to take back control of their borders and limit immigration, are so besotted by the globalist concept that is the WTO.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Mon 10 Dec 18:53
Bertie when you look at the trade imbalance as a % of the size of the economy, no deal impacts the UK more than the EU even though the numbers on the EU side are bigger. It doesn't give us an advantage unfortunately and threatening it will do little to improve our negotiating position.
Within the EU there are varying % impacts on different Member States with Ireland, Netherlands, Cyprus, Belgium and Germany being some of the biggest exposed to Brexit.
All the main German car trade bodies have said that the most important point for the EU is to defend the integrity of the single market and they'll take the hit on trade rather than compromise on that.
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Topic Originator: parbucks
Date: Mon 10 Dec 20:35
“All the main German car trade bodies have said that the most important point for the EU is to defend the integrity of the single market and they'll take the hit on trade rather than compromise on that”
Can’t believe that is real since the USA and the U.K. are the two biggest export markets for German cars.
Bit of political arm twisting maybe?
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Mon 10 Dec 22:25
The rest of Europe is a far bigger market for German made cars than the UK and U.S combined.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: donj
Date: Mon 10 Dec 23:12
Mogg and co are more concerned that the EU are going to clamp down on tax havens.They give not a **** about the UK.Money is their King and rules might cost them dearly.
Boris is just determined to get a job he cant fill but get his name in the history books.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Mon 10 Dec 23:58
Maybe but if you have a look in the domestic German press there's very little public pressure being applied from what I can see (I might be looking in the wrong places to be fair).
AAPS would probably be better placed than me to know for sure but I've had a look at a few German websites (Not those kind!) and whilst it's acknowledged it's an issue there seems to be an acceptance that there's going to be some level of hit.
Ties in with what our Government Affairs advisor was told not long after we voted Leave. Europe considers the best deal full membership and anything less will be a lose/lose for both sides.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Tue 11 Dec 11:20
Yep. Whilst Brexit makes the news, it is hardly making anyone break out in sweat over here in Germany.
Hear nothing from manufacturers or businesses who are begging for the UK to remain.
They will survive quite easily as they aren't dependant on the UK to survive.
Some of the UK plants who manufacture car parts or plane parts etc will just be moved into Europe to offset tariff costs and with the UK being mainly an importing nation they will still be able to export goods cheaply to the UK as a result.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: kelty_par
Date: Tue 11 Dec 16:36
"Who in their right mind given the trade balance would have taken a NO deal off the table?:
Because even the most ardent Brexiteers know that a No Deal would be utterly catastrophic for the UK? WTO rules (if they agree), customs checks all over the place, a physical border with the Republic of Ireland, UK firms struggling to get parts from Europe, the UK being forced into accepting lower standards from the USA, the Pound taking an absolute tanking... when even the Pro-Leave camp are saying it's a bad idea, you know it's an absolutely awful idea.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Tue 11 Dec 17:33
My point is obviously being missed.
I didn't say we should go for no deal but it should have been stood behind as a tactic. To waive it just like that was weak and utter incompetence.
Here are a few FACTS.
In 2017, road vehicles were also the UK's single largest import from the EU, valued at £47 billion.
The UK deficit with the EU in 2017 was the £67 Billion. Almost £350 Billion was imported by the UK.
About 44% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2017—£274 billion out of £616 billion total exports.
That share has generally been declining, since exports to other countries have increased at a faster rate. In conjunction the EU’s share of the world economy has been declining.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Tue 11 Dec 17:50
The simple reason exports have increased is due to the very weak strength of the pound.
That isnt a healthy sign despite the figures as they really aren't making any more of a profit in reality.
Wait till Brexit happens then the export industry really is in deep sh*t with tariffs imposed.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Tue 11 Dec 18:02
There is no disputing the facts. Anyone looking at that graph who didn't play up a NO DEAL shouldn't be out on their own.
And here's the proof.
Poland
"Mr Czaputowicz, in Brussels for a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers, told reporters that Poland is going to support a “certain measure of flexibility” as a Brexit without a deal would be the “worst scenario”.
France
"Rules passed in the wake of the 2008 market crash require all member states to have a deficit of less than 3 per cent of GDP, debt at less than 60 per cent of GDP, and for any member state with debts over 60 per cent to take steps each year to reduce it.
France's current debt is 97 per cent of GDP while economists believe Macron's new spending plans will push the deficit above 3 per cent in 2019. Countries found in breach of the rules risk being hit with hefty fines.
France is not the only country to flout the EU's spending rules after Italy passed a budget earlier this year which will see the budget deficit rise to 3.1 per cent by 2020, with debt already at 131 per cent of GDP."
Post Edited (Tue 11 Dec 18:44)
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Wed 12 Dec 11:55
If we were buying stuff out of the goodness of our hearts then the EU would have something major to worry about.
This is not the case.We buy stuff because we need it.
We are incapable of being self sufficient for a lot of things (including food, which most people agree is useful) and a no deal will cause huge issues for years.
We can, and probably will, recover from a no deal Brexit, but I reckon it would take us 10 years plus. Even then, we might only be back to the level we were before the referendum.
How many of you would take a 5 percent pay cut for the next 10 years just so that your company's board of directors is kicked out with a promise that you will probably be back to your current wage in 2028. Thanks but no thanks!
Post Edited (Wed 12 Dec 11:56)
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Wed 12 Dec 19:15
Not true.
A lot of the stuff that comes from Germany is luxury goods.
Machinery.
Data processing equipment. Computers. Integrated circuits, Broadcasting equipment,
Agricultural products.
Foodstuffs.
Metals.
Vehicles and car parts.
Chemicals.
Oil and gas.
I would also argue it is time we were starting to manufacture many of these things ourselves. Our own government with it's refusal to support R&D and to back our own inventions and finance their manufacture has handed these markets to the likes of Germany Italy and Sweden.
Coincidentally theses engineering processes were often the staple employers of people North of Watford.
Could we do without Bulbs and flowers? of course.
Can we process our own fish of course.
Can we get much of these vegetables from S. America, India, USA, Canada or Australasia? Of course.
My point is we have folded as if we had no power in this debate and that is not true. We need to have more faith in OUR farmers.
Your pay cut comment is spurious as you have no idea what effect that deal would have on our economy.
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Topic Originator: eastendalloapar
Date: Wed 12 Dec 20:13
The only thing that will hurt the Germans is when we stop paying in money and the Germans have to support the countries who are supported by us funding them. Then when there are massive tarrifs put on their cars whilst we have lower trade tarrifs with the rest of the world.
matt forsyth
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Wed 12 Dec 23:10
Bertie the chart you've put up above doesn't put any context on what the numbers mean.
If I gave the forum the choice of losing £100k or £1000 everyone would choose to lose the £1000 because it's far far less.
If the context of that scenario is that if you choose losing the £100k you've got £500 million in the bank and you've only got £1500 quid when losing the grand, all of a sudden losing a £100k becomes the more appealing option.
It's the same with the above chart. Ireland might have the biggest trade surplus as per the chart but it's going to have the one of the biggest exposures to Brexit of all the EU Member States.
In order to get a better understanding of what the real impact is on each of the Member States you'd have to look at loads of factors including what % of the total volume of exports would be impacted and also factor in what the threats to intra EU trade would potentially emerge as well as other political factors.
Quite a decent article here which points out the whole of Europe loses in a no deal scenario but also categorises it a bit more:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/19/no-deal-brexit-would-harm-all-european-countries-warns-imf
The risk to Europe is split across 27 nations whereas our loss is completely on us.
It's why no deal never was a credible threat.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Wed 12 Dec 23:11
Quote:
eastendalloapar, Wed 12 Dec 20:13
The only thing that will hurt the Germans is when we stop paying in money and the Germans have to support the countries who are supported by us funding them. Then when there are massive tarrifs put on their cars whilst we have lower trade tarrifs with the rest of the world.
You can't do that though you'd be putting tariffs on the whole of the EU and good luck winning that trade war.
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Thu 13 Dec 05:36
I agree that Britain should try to improve it's manufacturing sector to be less reliant on other countries, but this can take a year or two for some things and more than 10 years for others. It doesn't happen overnight.
The wage cut analogy remains a valid one. A no deal Brexit would be self harm with no guarantee of a complete recovery.
Interestingly the no deal Brexit has already started to have an effect on many sectors. Many businesses had their main (preferred) business plan for 2019 plus back-up plans for a no deal Brexit. They are now going to put their no deal plans into action since it is the only way to guarantee business continuity.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Thu 13 Dec 10:53
"Bertie the chart you've put up above doesn't put any context on what the numbers mean."
Your analogy isn't accurate though.
Firstly the graph is contextual ie we are talking in multiples of £Billions. Secondly what the graph shows is the extent of loss by the complete membership. ie what do you think these losses will mean to Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Italy?
These countries that sit in the second tier if you like, have not got the resilience of Germany and France. I have pointed out elsewhere that even Germany and France are having big problems. Who do you think has to foot the bill if Spain or Italy go into meltdown?
Your point about Ireland is well made but it just gives them as big a problem in reverse. There is no benefit to being at either extreme imo.
Your last point is moot. The fact there are 27 countries who will suffer to varying degrees will ultimately make it harder for them to accept a no deal. If I am Poland I would rather not have to find other markets or to pay higher tariffs for the sake of some leniency towards the UK. I don't like the idea of Germany and France telling me to sit tight and keep my nerve.
You forget the whole drawback with the EU is because it can take them 10 years or more to agree a trade agreement with a non EU country.
On not paying the real £39 Billion (and probably more) why not? If we are out of the EU without a deal the quid pro quo still stands. If they want to put high tariffs on our goods and services we will do the same.
I actually wish we had someone like Tump negotiating for us. Not because he is a bampot but because he comes from a business and bargaining background. We have been bullied by the EU and we are going to walk away with a deal where they risk nothing and we take all the knocks - no wonder they "say" they won't budge, they are getting everything they want.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Thu 13 Dec 11:04
"I would also argue it is time we were starting to manufacture many of these things ourselves. Our own government with it's refusal to support R&D and to back our own inventions and finance their manufacture has handed these markets to the likes of Germany Italy and Sweden."
I note we have been told that despite all the money and technology we have invested in the EU satellite coms and GPS system we are being shut out now because we are leaving the EU and we can't be trusted with the high tech secrets involved.
In answer to that May has given the go ahead for a UK satellite coms and GPS system.
That is what I meant when I said some of this breakaway from the EU can benefit us in the long run.
All our technology expertise was being given freely to the Germans, Swedes and French and of course they were no doubt using it to further their own high tech industries while the UK continued to put all its efforts into casino financial dealings and property.
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