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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Sat 18 May 16:29
I think it is beyond clear now that political polls are a waste of time and money.
I am watching the conclusion of the Australian Federal Election and the Coalition Government has just retained power. This is despite all the pollsters saying that the opposition Labor Party looked certain to win.
I am losing count of the number of elections and referenda in the past five years that have gone strongly against the forecasts of the polling organisations.
Polling seems to be at best a pitifully inexact science; at worst it is a massive fraud.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sat 18 May 18:21
I think one problem with polls is that the intentions of older voters are not picked up effectively. This may be due to polling questions being asked online or by various ‘apps’ that older voters do not use. However, older voters are actually more likely to turn out at the voting booths.
The ‘unexpected’ support for Brexit in the referendum and the ‘surprise’ support for Corbyn in the last General election could have been down to older voters on both right and left feeling that they were hearing something that chimed with their own thoughts. Older voters are also, in my view, less swayed by excitable reporting of current events; so what appears to the metropolitan pollsters as a burning issue and be one of their key questions may mean precious little to an older voter.
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Topic Originator: parbucks
Date: Sat 18 May 20:48
Older voters are, I think, more reticent to openly share their voting intentions unlike younger voters.
The silent majority have had the edge in both recent referenda.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Sun 19 May 06:35
I had not taken the age issue much into consideration in voting matters, but I can readily understand the argument you are both putting. It would seem that there is an awful lot of pent up, silent and angry extremism hiding in our society today that only comes into view when ballots take place.
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Sun 19 May 08:26
Just putting it out there....but in the week a Tory won by more votes than were actually cast.....maybe it's all a con.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sun 19 May 09:28
Rasta could you provide a link to that election or some more details. I have tried googling it but it's too vague and I'm not getting anything.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Sun 19 May 12:53
Not the only link that’s missing...
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Sun 19 May 15:18
Possibly Rasta is talking about the Highworth Parish Council Election in Wiltshire?
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sun 19 May 15:49
Ahh right. That's definitely more c*ck up and than conspiracy.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: DBP
Date: Sun 19 May 17:54
I've been voting for over 30 years and (other than the actual election) have never been asked my opinion, how I intend to vote or how I just voted.
In fact I don't know anyone who's been polled, so I'd love to know who they're asking for all these polls I've seen over my adukt life
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Sun 19 May 19:02
Quote:
DBP, Sun 19 May 17:54
I've been voting for over 30 years and (other than the actual election) have never been asked my opinion, how I intend to vote or how I just voted.
In fact I don't know anyone who's been polled, so I'd love to know who they're asking for all these polls I've seen over my adukt life
I have been telephone polled twice in last 5 years.
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Topic Originator: GG741
Date: Mon 20 May 03:58
I wouldn't put too much faith in poll forecast results any more, as they certainly do appear to be less accurate these days.
We even had a betting company (in Australia) pay out on bets for a Labour win prior to the election, and they didn't win!
Perhaps the polling is affected by the ability for voters to cast their vote in the weeks leading up to the nominated election date. In some electorates, the percentage of 'pre-pollers' was near 40% by election eve.
This has an impact on how the political parties release their campaign information; more info needs to be released earlier if they want that to be considered by the wider population. Conversely, I've heard it said that the 'pre-pollers' are committed to their own views and are less likely to change their vote anyway.
It might be interesting when the data is released for the recent Aus election; how many didn't vote, or how many informal votes, etc.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Mon 20 May 14:06
I suppose where we differ to most other countries is the level of engagement in elections is very high given our compulsory voting system in Australia.
I've always rather distrusted parties that leave the release of their policies to the very last minute, so yes, they may have to rethink that strategy now that 40% choose to vote early.
On the bookies' story, I heard on Friday that one regular big punter (it is usually believed to be the advertising industry guru, John Singleton) put an $850,000 bet on Labor to win. I doubt the bookies would have paid up early on that one!
:)
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