|
|
Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 19 Sep 23:35
The most obvious solution which has been there from day one was to allow Northern Ireland to remain in the Customs Union and single market.
Had Theresa May not called a General Election and lost her Tory majority, it's very possible Brexit would have happened already.
As to the here and now though, it is likely Johnston might be proposing something similar to what I said, but now he is -40 of any majority in the Commons so that won't get through.
The Irish situation isn't just about food and agriculture but freedom of movement allowed to continue as it is just now.
Then of course Scotland will also demand the same rights.....
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Fri 20 Sep 00:58
Ref: AdamAntsParsStripe
Thu 19 Sep 23:35
<<<The most obvious solution which has been there from day one was to allow Northern Ireland to remain in the Customs Union and single market.
The Irish situation isn't just about food and agriculture but freedom of movement allowed to continue as it is just now.>>>
I'm not sure exactly how to interpret Juncker's remarks but:
'Mr Juncker agreed that a deal would revolve around the idea that Northern Ireland would follow EU rules on food and agriculture, with other checks being done away from the border.' (1)
Would that not equate to NI staying in the Customs Union and single market, AAPS?
(1) source as hot-linked above.
Post Edited (Fri 20 Sep 01:01)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Fri 20 Sep 01:46
I've given that more thought. I think you've both made valid points there, Movie and AAPS. Freedom of movement is a hard one to resolve. But if our PM would consider not ending his life in a ditch, and get an extension instead, maybe a solution could be devised given more time and political will.
(Not realistic.)
I still think we're a wee bit nearer a deal after what Juncker has said though.
I wonder what the bookies think? I can't get bookies odds on my laptop but I see The Sun (10 Sep 2019) quoted Betfair at 1/100 -- yes unless it's a misprint or I'm seeing things, that's huge odds-on -- for a second EU in/out referendum.
Either they are bonkers or we are gonna have a second referendum!
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8018307/latest-brexit-odds-no-deal-second-referendum/
Post Edited (Fri 20 Sep 02:09)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 20 Sep 02:38
You've not made a mistake but the Sun has.
The market on Betfair is:
A second in/out referendum before end 2019.
No 1/100
Yes 12/1
So the bookies are pretty strong on no further referendum in 2019.
Betfair are also running a market on what the Government will officially ration first with fuel the 2/1 favourite 😂
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Fri 20 Sep 08:52
"But if our PM would consider not ending his life in a ditch, and get an extension instead"
We've already done that twice and it's solved nothing. Another 3 months will make no difference at all here.
If, as I fear, we're about to be offered nothing more than a small rehash of May's surrender document and sell Northern Ireland down the river I would far prefer we left without a deal, or even remained.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 20 Sep 09:03
You might be right.
When you see people claiming there has been a change in EU position (in articles like the one below) where there hasn't really been any change, it always makes me suspicious that the ground is being fluffed for some sort of deal that isn't really that much different to the last one:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1179954/Brexit-news-Nigel-Farage-UK-EU-deal-Juncker-Barnier-Boris-Johnson-latest
The EU have been saying they would negotiate over the backstop since it was rejected but that it was up to the UK to propose something so there's not really been a recent movement to negotiate as the offer has always been there.
I might well be wrong but it makes me think whatever is about to come out is being prepared to be sold to the public as a recent concession from the EU (Mighty Blighty forcing Johnny Foreigner to back down) when there was always the potential to negotiate over the back stop.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Fri 20 Sep 09:21
Don't think you're wrong at all. I think you're bang on.
Still difficult to see how he will ever get it through Parliament though and, in the unlikely event he does, it will be the last thing he does as Prime Minister (other than call an election) because the Conservatives will be wiped out by the Brexit Party as a result.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 20 Sep 11:51
Could be closer than last time. The DUP actually seemed to have changed their rhetoric a little bit and have moved from NI cant be treated differently to the rest of the UK towards a position that as long as there is no constitutional change they might be amenable to a deal.
With no deal blocked by law, it might lead some of those that would have preferred a no deal Brexit to sign up for a deal. Throw in the Labour contingent that want or have to vote for a deal to leave or they'll lose their seat and a deal similar to May's dressed up as something shiny and new might squeak through.
I do agree though that if it happens it could cost a lot of political capital and might be difficult to recover from.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Fri 20 Sep 12:16
This forum could revert back to being a really dull place if, or when, it happens ;)
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 20 Sep 12:20
I'm sure we'll find something to argue about 😉
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Fri 20 Sep 13:57
#Indyref2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 20 Sep 16:57
Looks like a good shout!
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: Luxembourg Par
Date: Mon 23 Sep 23:03
Well, my late father voted FOR Brexit.
His simple reasoning is that he believed the Tories will make such a hash of post-Brexit Britain, that the next Indy Ref will be a shoe in...
I've not seen any evidence that he would be wrong.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Wed 25 Sep 22:12
|
|
|
|
|
|
