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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Tue 16 Jun 06:46
USMac`s post got me thinking.... are the WC groups organised so that the 3rd vs 4th drawn teams happen first, and those teams are thought to be the lowest FIFA ranked teams?
With 3 games still to happen, there have been 5 draws already in those games which gives me a bit more hope for getting a 3rd place finish....
List below......
Post Edited (Wed 17 Jun 06:43)
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Topic Originator: Berry
Date: Tue 16 Jun 07:48
Iraq Norway hasn’t played yet?
The Iran and New Zealand draw is a good result for us as you’d expect they won’t win either of their next two and odds of them drawing both remaining games are slim so will finish behind Scotland.
The other draws, promising but because they are against the bigger countries, still a good chance a few of them could finish with 4 points.
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Tue 16 Jun 08:03
Ooops.....I`ll have to review my homework later!
I didn't have time to compare based on FIFA rankings but I will look to do that later. It is tricky based on the weird way they do the draws and put teams in different groups based on some other reasons.
Post Edited (Tue 16 Jun 08:05)
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Tue 16 Jun 09:00
Thanks Jeffery. Very helpful.
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Tue 16 Jun 15:38
Post Edited (Tue 16 Jun 15:56)
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Topic Originator: Jeffery
Date: Tue 16 Jun 16:25
Quote:
ipswichpar, Tue 16 Jun 09:00
Thanks Jeffery. Very helpful.
No problem Ipswich.
The image you posted isn`t loading so trying again here:-
Those two highly ranked teams are a big reason why Opta predicts us not being successful as a 3rd placed team. Results have gone as expected so far in our group.
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Tue 16 Jun 16:42
Thanks for fixing - not sure what`s up as it`s resolving ok this end.... oh well.
Rather than 3rd vs 4th (I`m not sure if that BBC explanation is accurate now) I have had a look at where the lowest FIFA ranked teams in each group are playing each other.
I was surprised at how many of these had yet to play. I know that there are massive assumptions, but generally I think these could be some of the most important games for us to keep an eye on, and hopefully a few of them will end in draws, with losses (or one draw) against the other two teams in the group.
I suspect the days following our last game are going to see us sitting with everything crossed ......
Date
14-Jun Haiti - Scotland 0-1
15-Jun Sweden - Tunisia 5-1
16-Jun Iraq- Norway 1-4
18-Jun Czechia- South Africa 1-1
18-Jun Ghana- Panama 1-0
22-Jun Egypt- New Zealand
23-Jun Algeria- Jordan
24-Jun Qatar- Bosnia & Herzegovina
25-Jun Cote d`Ivoire - Curacao
26-Jun Australia - Paraguay
27-Jun Saudia Arabia - Cape Verde
28-Jun DR Congo - Uzbekistan
Post Edited (Thu 18 Jun 18:59)
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Topic Originator: Berry
Date: Tue 16 Jun 16:51
Think ideally we’d just be wanting all of 3 and 4 teams to draw when facing each other
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Topic Originator: Rusty Shackleford
Date: Tue 16 Jun 17:12
I think we`ll take a point and all this chat will prove redundant.
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Topic Originator: Berry
Date: Tue 16 Jun 17:29
Quote:
Rusty Shackleford, Tue 16 Jun 17:12
I think we`ll take a point and all this chat will prove redundant.
One certainly hopes so!
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Topic Originator: Rusty Shackleford
Date: Tue 16 Jun 19:48
Quote:
Berry, Tue 16 Jun 17:29
Quote:
Rusty Shackleford, Tue 16 Jun 17:12
I think we`ll take a point and all this chat will prove redundant.
One certainly hopes so!
I`m having a go at manifesting 😂😂😂
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Topic Originator: DA-go Par Adonis
Date: Tue 16 Jun 23:29
If Scotland win and Brazil don`t beat Haiti, we win the group with a game to spare...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Equal rights and justice in this time
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Topic Originator: Stanza
Date: Wed 17 Jun 01:41
Quote:
DA-go Par Adonis, Tue 16 Jun 23:29
If Scotland win and Brazil don`t beat Haiti, we win the group with a game to spare...
The ghost of Ally MacLeod has joined the discussion!
(But gosh, I hope you`re right ...,)
_________________
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Wed 17 Jun 04:24
I believe the BBC article is incorrect that all match groups play 1v2 and 3v4 on the first match day. No way Curaçao and Cape Verde are #2 teams, having played Germany and Spain, respectively, which clearly are #1 teams. Also, I believe the 3 host teams are treated as #1 teams, and Bosnia, who played Canada, is a #4 team because they made the WC through the playoffs.
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Topic Originator: alwaysaPar
Date: Wed 17 Jun 06:34
The BBC article is correct as it was the positions that the teams were drawn into their groups.
So these positions were pre determined before the draw for match scheduling purposes
For example , for group A , the pot 2 team was always going to be drawn in to position 3 , Group B , position 4, group C position 2 and so on......
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Wed 17 Jun 06:41
I can remember that the draw was stupidly complicated in terms of seemingly randomly moving drawn teams along to different groups (I think it included things such as not too many from the same governing body e.g. UEFA).
That`s why I have looked at FIFA world ranking as I think it is more representative.
Hopefully we will start to see a few more draws soon!
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Wed 17 Jun 13:36
Panama v Ghana would be a good game for a draw because I don’t see either England or Croatia losing to either team.
I’m skeptical, though, whether there will be ultimately be 4 or more third-placed teams finishing with less than 3 points from group play. In other words, Scotland may not make it to the knockout round with 3 points and a poor GD.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Wed 17 Jun 14:02
Quote:
USMac, Wed 17 Jun 13:36
Panama v Ghana would be a good game for a draw because I don’t see either England or Croatia losing to either team.
I’m skeptical, though, whether there will be ultimately be 4 or more third-placed teams finishing with less than 3 points from group play. In other words, Scotland may not make it to the knockout round with 3 points and a poor GD.
We’re hoping for a couple of the teams hammered or soundly beaten in their opening game to get a third place on no more than 3 points which might be possible should we fail to get any more points.
Iraq might be one of them. Also hoping Iran and New Zealand fail to win either of their remaining two games.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
Post Edited (Wed 17 Jun 14:02)
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Topic Originator: Stanza
Date: Wed 17 Jun 14:12
Quote:
USMac, Wed 17 Jun 13:36
I’m skeptical, though, whether there will be ultimately be 4 or more third-placed teams finishing with less than 3 points from group play. In other words, Scotland may not make it to the knockout round with 3 points and a poor GD.
I`m inclined to agree. If we don`t get a point from our next two games our GD will be at best -1 and probably worse. Our GS figure isn`t likely to improve much, and with 3 yellow cards already we can`t rely on that to save us.
On the other hand, we are one clean sheet away from getting 4 points and almost-certain qualification - will that colour Clarke`s team selections?
_________________
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Wed 17 Jun 14:14
In the first round of games, the Pot 1 teams from each group are split into thirds as to their opponent:
- The Pot 1 teams in Groups C, F, I and L play Pot 2 teams.
- The Pot 1 teams in Groups A, D, G and J play Pot 3 teams. and
- The Pot 1 teams in Groups B, E, H and K play Pot 4 teams.
So only four of the games between Pot 3 and Pot 4 teams occur in the first round of games. One of them was Scotland v Haiti.
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Thu 18 Jun 13:50
Ghana scored in the fifth min of ET to spoil the draw with Panama.
Another chance for a draw between two teams who might not earn a win in group play comes today with S. Africa v Czechia.
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Topic Originator: BlackLight
Date: Thu 18 Jun 14:23
There`s six groups where there were two wins in the opening round. If the bottom two teams draw, that`s great for Scotland. If the bottom two teams both lose again, that`s great for Scotland.
Group A
Czechia play South Africa in the next round.
Group D
Türkiye play Paraguay in the next round.
Group E
Ecuador play Curacao in the next round.
Group I
Iraq play France and Senegal play Norway. If both Iraq and Senegal lose they both go into the final round with zero points.
Group J
Jordan play Algeria in the next round.
Group L
Croatia play Ghana and Panama play England. If both Croatia and Panama lose they both go into the final round with zero points.
Obviously, we all want a win or a draw tomorrow to make all of this academic, but qualification on 3 points seems quite possible, even with poor goal difference.
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Thu 18 Jun 19:00
First of these games ending in a draw.... hopefully more to come.
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Thu 18 Jun 19:17
Group B might provide an opportunity for a third-placed team having less than 3 points with two draws in the first round. I could see Qatar and Bosnia losing today and then playing each other in the finale.
Group D with Paraguay/Turkey is another opportunity. I don’t see Curaçao or Iraq managing a draw with Ecuador or Senegal, respectively, though.
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Sat 20 Jun 04:54
Now we can pretty much confirm Scotland as third in the group. The good news is the zero GD presently. The bad news is that Brazil may not be able to rest players and may need goals to stay ahead of Morocco.
I don’t see the third-placed teams in Groups E, F, K or L having less than 3 points:
- Ecuador should beat Curacao.
- The Dutch and Japan should beat Tunisia.
- Portugal and DR Congo should beat Uzbekistan. and
- Croatia should beat Panama.
A is a good chance for a third-placed team with less than 3 pts, D too if game tonight is drawn. G also presents an opportunity, J less so since Algeria seems stronger than Jordan.
B (possibly H and I too) will have the two bottom teams play each other, knowing that a draw will not help them — so tough to rely on them since both teams will have to attack.
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Topic Originator: Berry
Date: Sat 20 Jun 11:31
Does this factor in the H2H rule which I forgot about.
e.g. Haiti are out even if they beat Morocco by 10 because we will finish above them on H2H.
Not sure if this materially helps our situation.
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Sat 20 Jun 11:50
Well, Group D is definitely ending on at least 3 points and, given a draw between Australia and Paraguay will put them both through, I suspect that one might be a damp squib!
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Sat 20 Jun 11:53
Don`t think it helps us at all Berry, unfortunately. While I think you are correct, I think it only really impacts the ranking in the group rather than 3rd place.
Of course, it might mean that a 3rd vs 4th game in the final round means theoretically one isn`t trying as much, but in practice I can`t see this happening.
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Sat 20 Jun 12:05
Quote:
ipswichpar, Sat 20 Jun 11:50
Well, Group D is definitely ending on at least 3 jpoints and, given a draw between Australia and Paraguay will put them both through, I suspect that one might be a damp squib!
Heres hoping the Aussies hand out a 4-0 win, but cant see it
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Topic Originator: Berry
Date: Sat 20 Jun 12:14
Ah well, wishful thinking.
I was thinking we could worry less about certain teams hitting the 3pt mark with a higher goal difference if they canny finish third due to H2H within the group.
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Sun 21 Jun 03:38
Good day for Scotland:
First, the Dutch outscored Sweden by 4 to bring its GD to 0, like Scotland. Assuming Japan outscores Tunisia by some margin tonight, then it’s a race between Japan and the Netherlands on GD for top spot in Group F, so Japan should be motivated v Sweden in the last match.
Second, Curacao earned a draw v Ecuador, leaving them both on 1 pt in Group E. Good chance neither team gets to 3 pts.
So a good chance that the third-placed team in Groups A and E finish with less than 3 pts — halfway there!!
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Sun 21 Jun 07:02
I`d add Group B to that list.... so that`s 3 decent chances, with half the groups still only having played 1 game...... roll on loads more boring draws!
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Topic Originator: Ianoappar
Date: Sun 21 Jun 08:46
Haiti and Turkey first two teams to go out of World Cup despite having a game still to play.
New Fifa World Cup rules in play,as they have no chance of qualifying from the group.
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Topic Originator: Jeffery
Date: Sun 21 Jun 09:35
I had missed this rule. It basically means head to head is the first tie breaker before goal difference.
It means Haiti are out whatever happens because we beat them. Should they go out and inexplicably beat Morocco 4-0, resulting in them having 3 points and a goal difference of zero, we`d still finish ahead of them.
Post Edited (Sun 21 Jun 10:41)
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Topic Originator: Berry
Date: Sun 21 Jun 10:00
Tunisia officially out now as well.
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Topic Originator: USMac
Date: Mon 22 Jun 05:03
Results from Groups G and H were not helpful. Iran is on 2 pts after its draw with Belgium and only need a draw with Egypt to get to 3. The Cape Verde draw with Uruguay leaves them both on 2 pts, but Spain with its hefty win really only needs a draw with Uruguay to top the group. So both third-placed teams are likely to have at least 3 pts with a 0 GD — not good for Scotland.
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Mon 22 Jun 06:39
I wouldn`t be too sure..... all the teams bar the teams on 4 points must go for it. But that`ll force the team on 4 to go for it too.
Going to be a cracking finish in both these groups.
Remaining games from the guffer teams in the groups....
23-Jun Algeria- Jordan
24-Jun Qatar- Bosnia & Herzegovina
25-Jun Cote d`Ivoire - Curacao
26-Jun Australia - Paraguay
27-Jun Saudia Arabia - Cape Verde
28-Jun DR Congo - Uzbekistan
Post Edited (Mon 22 Jun 06:45)
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Mon 22 Jun 12:43
Im resigned to us coming home after Wednesday…may sound defeatist but cant see us holding off Brazil enough to get through as one of the 8…and I actually think Brazil aren’t great shakes so far, its just down to how poor we have been.
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