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 How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Thu 17 Nov 19:58

...is it that a so-called old type of rocket made in Russia was fired in Ukraine at an incoming Russian missile and ended up in Poland? Do the Ukranians use a special kind of rocket launcher that fires rockets backwards? (I believe Russia is east and Poland west of Ukraine.)

Does it sound like a cover-up, aimed at placating Mr Putin the Boot-in?



Post Edited (Thu 17 Nov 19:59)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: buffy  
Date:   Thu 17 Nov 21:21

See the politics forum for a possible answer.

”Buffy’s Buns are the finest in Fife”, J. Spence 2019”
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: PARrot  
Date:   Thu 17 Nov 21:58

I think it was a Russian projectile. They have adapted land to air missiles and are using them as land to land missiles. They have depleted accuracy.
This strike was a blunder and I think Nato is trying to downplay it rather than escalate things as a consequence of an error.
If it happens again though........



Post Edited (Thu 17 Nov 21:59)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Fri 18 Nov 02:03

I think PARrot might be the only person left who still thinks the missile came from Russian controlled areas. The story died on its feet within hours due to photographic evidence from Poland and military commentators’ knowledge of the S-300 missile’s range. NATO, who would have tracked the missile in any case, was not prepared to support the false claims of Zelensky in public. I doubt that they appreciated being ordered to launch WW3 on his say so either. Zelensky, who knew instantly that the missile was fired from Russia, has now conceded that he cannot be sure from where the missile was fired.

I think the OP was puzzled by how a weapon designed to intercept missiles aimed from the east ended up shooting miles in the opposite direction. He’s not alone but it’s claimed that convergent firing could explain that.

sammer
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Fri 18 Nov 09:36

Ah! Thank you Sammer. Very interesting. Yes, I thought it strange that it should end up in Poland, if it was aimed towards Russa, or towards Russian controlled territories in the east of Ukraine.

Then I read that it`s claimed to be an S-300 - said to be an old type of Russian missile - the significance of which I think would be that the Russians don`t use them any more.

Nevertheless, given that it`s in the interests of the West to find that it was fired by Ukrainians; and not having much to go on, (even the report I read could not say for certain that it was a S-300) I put 2 and 2 together and made six!*

Just to settle my mind a bit more, could you give a source or two, and a brief explanation of convergent firing?


*I`ve read these (which are still inconclusive):

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3739815-zelensky-on-missile-blast-in-poland-i-dont-know-100-percent-what-happened/

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/17/ukraine-poland-missile-russia-00069342

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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Fri 18 Nov 09:39

Thank you Buffy and Parrot for your input.

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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Fri 18 Nov 09:48

Hi Parrot,

Regarding your point about the Russian missiles, I just found this article:

`Russia now firing s-300 suface to air missiles at land targets in Ukraine`(8 July 2022)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official

Quote:

`Mykolaiv governor Vitaly Kim says that 12 missiles were fired by S-300s in a land attack role, targeting Mykolaiv Oblast, but he also notes that, despite the missiles being retrofitted with GPS guidance, they remain inaccurate.`



Post Edited (Fri 18 Nov 18:35)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: PARrot  
Date:   Fri 18 Nov 10:18

Quote:

onandupthepars, Fri 18 Nov 09:48

Hi Parrot,

Regarding your point about the Russian missiles, I just found this article:

`Russia now firing s-300 suface to air missiles at land targets in Ukraine`(8 July 2022)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official

Quote:

Mykolaiv governor Vitaly `Kim says that 12 missiles were fired by S-300s in a land attack role, targeting Mykolaiv Oblast, but he also notes that, despite the missiles being retrofitted with GPS guidance, they remain inaccurate.`



Thanks for that. I canny be botherex arguing with smartasses nowadays.

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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Fri 18 Nov 18:41

OAUTP,
A number of bloggers have supported the idea that a Ukrainian missile could have been fired westward. The only military explanation I can find is from a retired Russian Colonel called Khodurenok, which you may not regard as a reliable opinion.

‘’The regiment was engaged in combat operation and was firing at aerial targets. It is entirely possible that one of the divisions (or both using concentrated fire) were carrying out launches at pursuit courses of an azimuth of 240-300 degrees (in a westward direction). It is possible that one of the guidance channels experienced an error (this is by no means rare in a difficult and fast-paced air battle), and two 5V55R guided missiles ended up in Polish air space.”

The Kremlin position is along the same lines, adding that the decision to point the finger at Russia was an act of rash opportunism.

Others, inside and outside of Russia, have claimed a ‘False Flag’ operation on the part of Ukraine although this is founded purely on suspicion. If it was such, then it was extremely cack-handed and obviously not cleared beforehand with NATO. So, highly unlikely.

sammer
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Fri 18 Nov 20:46

Appreciated Sammer, that`s something for me to chew over. I`m working through a few different sources and hope to have the material in order soon.

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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sat 19 Nov 01:28

Previous to statements from Poland and NATO, President Biden said it was “unlikely” that Russia fired the missile” (1)

What was that based on?

“Preliminary information,” such as “the trajectory” (2)

U.S. and Polish experts were working at the site together. “Remains of [a] Russian S-300 rocket, used by the Russian and Ukrainian armies, were found.” (3)

“Poland and the head of [NATO] both said that [the missile] was probably launched by air defences in Ukraine. Russia had been bombarding Ukraine at the time… Ukraine’s defence was launching their missiles in various directions. There are "many indications that one of the missiles used to shoot down a Russian missile missed the target, its self-destruct system did not work, and it fell on Polish territory.”(4)

An advisor to the Polish president explained “that a team of investigators had examined remnants of the missile and the depth of the crater it carved out, and have gauged the direction it came from and the amount of fuel it used.” (5)

They think it unlikely that an S-300 was fired by Russia because it’s range is only about 56 miles,(Poland is over 350 miles from Russia,) but it is possible that variants of the S-300 may have longer ranges. (6)

My conclusions? Based on my research and inputs from Sammer and Parrot, I’m quite comfortable on the fence!





Sources:

(1)& (2)Reuters 16 11 22:
https://www.reuters.com/world/global-leaders-hold-emergency-meeting-over-poland-deaths-2022-11-16/

(3)The Kyiv Independent:
https://kyivindependent.com/national/ukraine-war-latest-nato-says-poland-missile-likely-fired-by-ukrainian-air-defense-zelensky-wants-investigation

(4)Associated Press News, 16 11 22:
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-g-20-summit-nato-biden-governmentandpoliticsc76bead57a11bc8397a30ee7bb06264eutmsource=homepage&utm_medium=TopNews&utm_campaign=position_01

(5)From The Kyiv Independent, quoted in Newsweek:
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-missile-malfunctioned-mid-air-poland-tragedy-official-jakub-kumoch-says-1760412

(6)https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63648958

Post Edited (Sat 19 Nov 01:39)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Sat 19 Nov 01:55

Douglas McGregor is a very Scottish name but this former US military colonel is a war veteran with an impressive grasp of US military history in Vietnam and Kosovo. He is no friend of the Pentagon it is fair to say and has been a strong critic of the NATO actions in Ukraine. He is confident to the point of arrogance and, perhaps as part of his Scottish heritage, plain spoken and direct. The opening part of the interview deals with the missile in Poland. The first 10 minutes are well worth a listen, whatever your views.

https://youtu.be/hKAuLFpQ3dY

sammer
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sat 19 Nov 02:20

I don`t think it should be assumed that when Zelensky first responded, he knew about the idea of it being an s-300 that failed to self-destruct. The size of the impact suggests a direct hit by a functioning missile, and if he was unaware of the idea of failure to self-destruct, I think he`d be liable to think it was a deliberate strike by a functioning missile.

You could say he was quick to jump to a conclusion but Kyiv was under heavy attack, and given that it would take one of his missiles to miss the missile it was fired at, and then fail to self-destruct, and also zoom off towards Poland, it sounds at first an unlikely combination of events.

And how far is it from Kyiv to Przewodow, where the missile struck? Over 300 miles! So, that needs an explanation, for a missile that has only a 56 mile range.


Added 19/11/22: It has been claimed that the missile was on a "ballistic trajectory" which means that for some variants of the s-300, their range is increased to 400km (approx 250 miles.) So much for the BBC and their 56 miles! Can`t trust everything you read.


Post Edited (Sat 19 Nov 20:28)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sat 19 Nov 02:24

I`ve only just seen your post with the link Sammer. I`ll have a listen tomorrow. Time for shut eye here in soggy UK.



Post Edited (Sat 19 Nov 02:39)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sat 19 Nov 19:16

I have listened to some of the interview, referenced by Sammer. (Judge Napolitano’ with Col Doug MacGregor.) Before I listen to more, I had better comment on what I’ve heard to keep this post from getting too complicated.

The interviewer opens with what he calls ‘the facts’. One of these, he says, is that the missile was a Russian s-300. `Who could have fired a Russian missile?` he asks.

McGregor: “No – these missiles were not of Russian origin. The s-300 was designed by the Russians, but these missiles are not of Russian origin, they’re Ukranian missiles.”

He emphasized the word ‘designed’. Does he mean that the missile was made in Ukraine? If that was true, it could be strong evidence that it was fired by the Ukranian army.

But I haven’t been able to find any reference to support that, only references that say s-300 missiles are made and exported by Russia.

(1)‘Judge Napolitano’ interview with Col Doug MacGregor:
https://youtu.be/hKAuLFpQ3dY

(2)-(4)S-300 missile system:

(2)Wikipeda:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system#S-300V_(SA-12)

(3)New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/16/world/europe/poland-missile-s-300.html

(4) I tried Pravda without success, so far.



Post Edited (Sat 19 Nov 19:23)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sat 19 Nov 20:13

I have now found a reference saying that s-300 missiles have been made in Kyiv. A website headed

`European Security and Defence`, 19 November 2022

https://euro-sd.com/2022/11/news/28258/assessing-the-causes-of-the-przewodow-incident/

It gives interpretations of photos of missile fragments, and goes into detail with a diagram about how it could have ended up heading west. It doesn`t claim to know for certain what the missile was or what happened, but states, "this would be a good candidate for explaining the cause for the incident."

(One detail that puzzles and frustrates me with this article is that it gives reference numbers for many of the details, but at the end, most of the sources are missing.)



Post Edited (Sat 19 Nov 23:55)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 11:53

OK, I`m still puzzling.

As I understand it, the story that the ESD (European Defence and Security) presents is this:

It was `probably` a missile fired by the Ukrainian army.

It was aimed at a Russian missile that was heading towards a target in Kyiv. [Note added 20/11/22: Correction: Not all the Russian missiles were aimed at Kyiv. They were fired at "cities across Ukraine". See my post below, dated Sun 20 Nov 18:36]

It was fired, not at a Russian missile approaching head-on, but one that was `a crossing target`.*

(That suggests to me it must have been fired from a defence launcher a significant distance east of Kyiv.)

It didn`t miss, but was expected to hit the attacking missile further west on its flight path. It turned and followed the attack missile westwards.

It lost the Russian missile before it reached Kyiv.

The Ukrainian-fired missile carried on for hundreds of miles.

It didn`t self-destruct. (Not all such missiles are made to do that.)

It struck in Przewodow in Poland.

(Hm. if it was fired from a launcher east of Kyiv, that puts it even further from Poland. Remember: distance of Kyiv from Przewodow: 573 km/over 350 miles. Plus!)

(I`m still sitting on the fence. Or as keeps popping into my head, sung by John Lennon - `I`m just sitting here watching the wheels go round and round - I really love to watch them roll...`)




Note: SAM = surface-to-air-missile

https://euro-sd.com/2022/11/news/28258/assessing-the-causes-of-the-przewodow-incident/



Post Edited (Sun 20 Nov 18:43)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: P  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 12:10

Probably fired by Ukraine sounds reasonable

If Russia had not invaded a sovereign country you can say with absolute certainty that the missile would not have been fired at all.

A screw up by whoever fired it certainly, but blame is on Russia 100% regardless of who was on the trigger.


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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 12:15

Yes, and even if it was fired by Ukraine it`s only a pimple compared to what Putin and the Russian high command have done. By that, I don`t mean to understate the pain caused to the victims and people of Przewodow.

Post Edited (Sun 20 Nov 12:18)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 12:20

350 plus miles though P. Sounds questionable to me.

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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: sadindiefreak  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 13:49

Quote:

onandupthepars, Sun 20 Nov 12:15

Yes, and even if it was fired by Ukraine it`s only a pimple compared to what Putin and the Russian high command have done. By that, I don`t mean to understate the pain caused to the victims and people of Przewodow.


Przewodow is approximately 100km directly North of Lviv.
It`s almost certain to have been a SAM which was fired to protect Lviv from a Russian Cruise missile fired from Belarus.
I`ve seen weapon experts say the crater is too large to have been just the SAM and that it most likely successfully stopped the Cruise missile and the wreckage came down together. The crater is due to Cruise missile exploding on hitting the ground. Seen two different analysts suggest this.

Russia also accused Ukraine of a war crime when Russian troops who had surrendered were shot and killed.
The footage has been released of it and 10-12 Russians were laying down and Ukrainians had been getting the Russians to come out 1 at a time then lie down. Last guy emerges and opens fire on the Ukrainians with full auto on.
Pretending to surrender then opening fire is actually a war crime.
It was a tactic used by the Russians early on so sad to see it return.
Around a dozen Russians and at least one Ukrainian killed for no reason here.
The fact this tactic has been used on multiple occasions shows it is an order from above and is just another war crime to add to the list committed by the fascist Russians.
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 18:36

Hi Sadindie, thank you for that. Can you give any sources/references?

Apologies to readers, I have to be more careful and notice when I`ve made an assumption. I have mistakenly assumed that all the Russian missiles fired on 15 November were aimed at Kyiv. Retracing my research, I see it is reported that they were aimed at `cities across Ukraine.`

Quote:

"Russia was pounding cities across Ukraine with missiles on Tuesday [15 November 2022], in attacks that Kyiv said were the heaviest wave of missile strikes in nearly nine months of war. Some hit Lviv, which is less than 80 km (50 miles) from the border with Poland."(1)


(1) Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/explosion-kills-two-poland-near-ukraine-border-2022-11-15/





Post Edited (Sun 20 Nov 18:58)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: sadindiefreak  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 19:10

Quote:

onandupthepars, Sun 20 Nov 18:36

Hi Sadindie, thank you for that. Can you give any sources/references?

Apologies to readers, I have to be more careful and notice when I`ve made an assumption. I have mistakenly assumed that all the Russian missiles fired on 14 November were aimed at Kyiv. Retracing my research, I see it is reported that they were aimed at `cities across Ukraine.`

Quote:

"Russia was pounding cities across Ukraine with missiles on Tuesday [15 November 2022], in attacks that Kyiv said were the heaviest wave of missile strikes in nearly nine months of war. Some hit Lviv, which is less than 80 km (50 miles) from the border with Poland."(1)


(1) Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/explosion-kills-two-poland-near-ukraine-border-2022-11-15/

Can


I`m not sure where it was I saw this as I follow so many sources.
These guys are pretty good for military analysis. Mostly watch their content on tiktok myself.

https://linktr.ee/malcontentnews

https://linktr.ee/aravosis

This is where I saw about the alleged war crimes. https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMFuCq2hA/
He`s pretty good for analysis. And footage of dead Russians or in the process of being killed.
He`s an Australian Muslim who fought for the Syrian Free Army. He has experience of fighting Russia there and their barbaric methods.
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sun 20 Nov 21:07

The idea Sadindie posted - that the impact in Przewodow could have been caused by a Ukrainian missile fired to intercept a Russian one from Belarus, is included here:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/16/claims-russia-fired-missile-struck-poland-now-doubtful-why/

Lviv was under attack; "some [Russian missiles] hit Lviv" (1)

The article suggests that, because the distance from Russia is too great, the missiles that hit Lviv had to have been fired from Belarus (Russia`s ally in the war, and known to be a source of Russian missiles fired into Ukraine.)

There is a power plant, about 25 miles from Przewodow, which supplies Lviv with much of its energy, and that may have been a Russian target.(2)

"Experts said it appeared likely that the missile (probably an s-300) had been fired by Ukraine in an attempt to shoot a Russian missile out of the sky."(3)

This sounds more likely than the ESD explanation I posted (at 11:53 above.) It doesn`t require a `crossing target`, or for a Ukranian-fired missile to have turned and strayed very far to the west.



(1) Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/explosion-kills-two-poland-near-ukraine-border-2022-11-15/

(2) & (3) The Telegraph

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/16/claims-russia-fired-missile-struck-poland-now-doubtful-why/



Post Edited (Sun 20 Nov 21:27)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Mon 21 Nov 00:07

OAUTP,

I think you are flogging a dead horse. Your curiosity and scepticism are admirable but the facts would have been known a number of days ago. The fragments which were discovered by the Poles would have been sufficient to identify the missile (or missiles) which landed. They are all stamped at the factory when produced. The Poles may have lied of course, but the official position is that a stray AAC missile landed in Polish territory.

I attempted to visit sites recommended by Sadindiefreak. The first one, called ‘malcontents’ from memory, was certainly pro NATO but making a fair effort at establishing the truth on the ground. Rather like the New York Times in its conclusions. Fair enough, although they were rather keen on donations.

The second site, oh dear. A man who giggles at his own jokes is either drunk or on drugs, and given the machine gun delivery, the adolescent language, the self-conscious asides, I assumed the latter.

Aravosis has discovered that the Nord 2 pipeline was sabotaged, something everyone in the world knew about a month ago. He spends much of his time pleading for money; ‘5 bucks a month guys’ and assures us that he promotes a ‘charity’ in Ukraine and that only half the money gathered ends up in his pocket. ‘I’m not taking a dime,’ he reassured us. I recalled the old joke: ‘The more he protested his honesty, the faster we counted the silver.’

The last section I endured was an auction of artefacts from the Ukraine war. He was actually selling bracelets he claimed were made form the last batch of steel from the Azov steelworks in Mariupol before it was forced to surrender. He was also flogging replicas of Zelensky’s shoulder flashes at a knock down price. I can’t believe people watch this stuff.

sammer
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: sadindiefreak  
Date:   Mon 21 Nov 02:23

Quote:

sammer, Mon 21 Nov 00:07

Aravosis has discovered that the Nord 2 pipeline was sabotaged, something everyone in the world knew about a month ago.


If you had an ounce of integrity you would have said he reported on a Swedish government investigation that had confirmed, that day, it was an act of sabotage.
He didn`t just discover that.

Don`t hear you complaining about the Russian troll farms where people are paid to spread lies for propaganda purposes but independent journalists trying to get finance to continue their work you`re happy to criticise.

While your source Doug MacGregor, a regular paid guest on Russian state media channel RT is not a propagandist for the Kremlin. 🤣🤣🤣

Post Edited (Mon 21 Nov 02:27)
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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Mon 21 Nov 03:04

Hi Sammer,

Thank you for saying my curiosity is admirable, I was hoping some readers would see it that way. I`m not trying to say I`ve found out more than the investigators know - the info we get is likely to be limited. I was hoping I could find an explanation that satisfied me, and (though I can`t say if it`s right or not,) the Belarus idea has.

I am pleased with what other posters have said, yourself included, we all have some differences, but I`ve found things from each one that I agreed with and helped me to move on.

That`s the value to me of putting my workings on the forum. I wouldn`t have looked at all the different things I did, or changed my mind as I did, if I hadn`t had the inputs from other posters.

I had a look at the sources given by Sadindie. They`re unfamiliar to me and I found them difficult to use. I think Associated Press is the best source I`ve used, followed by Reuters; and I know Wiki isn`t rated by some, but I`ve found the sources that it gives useful, even if the article is just a stepping stone to further research.

I wish I could encourage people to give sources/links, hot-linked preferably, because otherwise it`s hard to know what is their opinion (sometimes mistaken, as is clear from my own efforts in this thread) and what can be found in published reports. One way I can keep track of websites I`ve visited is to bookmark them - on my laptop it`s just a case of clicking on a star in the top right of screen - it makes a very useful and simple list.

Of course I have cherry-picked from the info I`ve read and heard, to try and home in on a workable theory. I could have said something about the NATO trace, of the missile that hit Przewodow - seemingly a NATO pilot was doing routine surveillance in the area, and recorded it. As you say, it was maybe known very quickly what happened.

But as far as I`m aware the investigations are officially ongoing? I will be interested to see what the definitive statements by America and NATO, and Russia, if they issue one, will be.

`Scepticism` you say. If I am, it`s just an extension of curiosity - looking to make sense - to myself - and, even though some of my workings were wrong they might give somebody else a hand if they wish to delve into the matter. (I know - it`s a Pars forum! 🙂)

There is something else I could ask you about from the McGregor interview. I`ll start a new thread for it though. But I`ll have to give ma neuron a wee break for a day or two first.

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 Re: How likely...
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Mon 21 Nov 03:24

Hi Sadindie

Thank you for giving those sources. Being an old geezer who wasn`t raised on social media and has never really taken to it (God that sounds like a typical old fart 🙂 ) - I didn`t get far with them. But I`ll have another go soon.

Post Edited (Mon 21 Nov 03:26)
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