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Topic Originator: Bletchley_Par
Date: Fri 28 Apr 02:41
Green up to 11%, Alba still no impact, Reform get a percent. Nothing else to note really?
Labour = 39%
Conservative = 20%
SNP = 19%
Lib Dem = 11%
Green = 11%
Other = 3%
Reform = 1%
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 28 Apr 09:07
Snp votes going back to Labour and some to the Greens. Labour a shoe in to the form the next government in Westminster.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Fri 28 Apr 09:46
Quote:
The One Who Knocks, Fri 28 Apr 09:07
Snp votes going back to Labour and some to the Greens. Labour a shoe in to the form the next government in Westminster.
So there will be no change?π€π‘
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 28 Apr 09:51
Based on a sample of 174 Scottish voters if I`m reading that correctly?
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Topic Originator: sadindiefreak
Date: Fri 28 Apr 09:55
Quote:
wee eck, Fri 28 Apr 09:51
Based on a sample of 174 Scottish voters if I`m reading that correctly?
That sample size makes outcome meaningless.
With a full sample Suze of over 1000 it`s accuracy is +/- 3% so God knows how poor the accuracy on less than a fifth of that is.
Edit, Just had a look and a sample size that small is estimated at +/- 10%
Post Edited (Fri 28 Apr 10:00)
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 28 Apr 10:05
1 in 5 voters still intending to vote Tory after what they`ve done?!
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Topic Originator: DBP
Date: Fri 28 Apr 12:19
Is that uk wide poll and not a Scottish electorate specific one?
Otherwise Iβm not sure how I could vote Plaid Cymru or someone in England could even vote SNP so canβt imagine them opting for that choice either!
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 28 Apr 12:43
It`s UK wide but the stats from BP are from the Scottish sample. Unless the snp are predicted to get 19% of the entire uk vote.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 28 Apr 13:09
Can 174 be a representative sample of Scottish voters? It`s just another example of Scotland being treated as a region of the `precious Union`.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 28 Apr 14:00
The poll appears to be separated into three `regions`, Scotland, England and Wales.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 28 Apr 14:14
...yes and the overall sample split pro rata by population. The samples for Scotland and Wales are never going to be representative on that basis.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 28 Apr 14:34
Maths was never my strong point so I`ll take your word in that but I also assume then if its pro rata then the sample for England is also not representative?
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 28 Apr 15:03
Quote:
The One Who Knocks, Fri 28 Apr 14:34
Maths was never my strong point so I`ll take your word in that but I also assume then if its pro rata then the sample for England is also not representative?
Pro-rata in these cases doesn`t matter. What matters is reaching a set number of people where the researcher can say asking any more people wouldn`t drastically change the result.
I`m not a researcher so can`t explain it but I know from work I`ve done that 100-150 people will not represent the views of Scotland.
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Fri 28 Apr 15:13
Quote:
jake89, Fri 28 Apr 10:05
1 in 5 voters still intending to vote Tory after what they`ve done?!
People are idiots
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 28 Apr 15:35
England`s population is about 85% of the UK population so in a UK sample of 2.000 around 1,700 will be English. I think you need a sample of around 1,000 to be representative of the whole population so the pro rata English sample of the UK population is large enough to be representative of English voting intentions.
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 28 Apr 15:38
Quote:
wee eck, Fri 28 Apr 15:35
England`s population is about 85% of the UK population so in a UK sample of 2.000 around 1,700 will be English. I think you need a sample of around 1,000 to be representative of the whole population so the pro rata English sample of the UK population is large enough to be representative of English voting intentions.
Explained far better than me. I suppose it would be like asking 1 person in Dunfermline and claiming they represented all of Dunfermline.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 28 Apr 17:09
What if you asked 174?
I think I understand. So if you are taking a UK poll for a UK wide election it is not enough to take just 1000 people out of the UK population. You have to take 1000 from each nation because maybe they vote differently in Scotland and Wales. What I don`t get is how is a thousand enough in England when parts of England vote very differently in parts of England to other parts of England?
Post Edited (Fri 28 Apr 17:44)
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 28 Apr 17:49
Quote:
The One Who Knocks, Fri 28 Apr 17:09
What if you asked 174?
I think I understand. So if you are taking a UK poll for a UK wide election it is not enough to take just 1000 people out of the UK population. You have to take 1000 from each nation because maybe they vote differently in Scotland and Wales. What I don`t get is how is a thousand enough in England when parts of England vote very differently in parts of England to other parts of England?
Because you`re saying the figure represents all of the UK rather than saying that the 3 people they asked in Wigan represent all of Wigan. Proportionally they would but not in reality.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 28 Apr 17:56
I think the theory is that selecting a random sample of 1,000 ensures the sample will be representative of the whole population. You can`t draw the same level of assurance from a much smaller sample. Extending the sample above 1,000 won`t have much effect on the overall result. Most polls done, certainly in the UK, have samples around the 1,000 mark.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 28 Apr 19:02
So what we can take from this UK poll off about 2000 is that the conclusions of the UK as a whole will be reasonably accurate but drilling down into the regional data will be less reliable.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 28 Apr 19:31
I would think so. It would have been interesting to see a summary of the pollsters` conclusions from the results. I always think polls taken before an election has even been called are pretty meaningless.
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Topic Originator: Bletchley_Par
Date: Thu 4 May 14:30
Holyrood Voting Intentions.
Labour 27% (+3)
SNP 25% (-5)
Conservatives 19% (β)
Green 13% (+2)
Lib Dems 10% (-3)
Alba 2% (+2)
Reform UK 2% (β)
Other 2% (β)
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 4 May 15:52
That`s just for list votes. The SNP are still ahead on constituency votes.
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Thu 4 May 16:06
Quote:
Bletchley_Par, Thu 4 May 14:30
Holyrood Voting Intentions.
Labour 27% (+3)
SNP 25% (-5)
Conservatives 19% (β)
Green 13% (+2)
Lib Dems 10% (-3)
Alba 2% (+2)
Reform UK 2% (β)
Other 2% (β)
Based on 134 voters I believe!π€π€£
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Thu 4 May 19:01
Quote:
LochgellyAlbert, Thu 4 May 16:06
Quote:
Bletchley_Par, Thu 4 May 14:30
Based on 134 voters I believe!π€π€£
Very diverse polling data that ππ Yoons will take any win just now
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Thu 4 May 20:50
Based on 134 voters I believe!π€π€£
Based on 1295 responses, no?
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Topic Originator: Parboiled
Date: Fri 5 May 08:35
Us Yoons got the biggest win Andrew..and no chance of a replay!
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 5 May 09:03
Polls suggest that the Labour resurgence in Scotland has been turbo charged by the snp crisis that has engulfed them and the local elections down south show that Labour is set wipe out the Tories at the next election, a`la 1997.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Fri 5 May 13:01
Quote:
Parboiled, Fri 5 May 08:35
Us Yoons got the biggest win Andrew..and no chance of a replay!
Should you not be grovelling over old Sausage fingers rather than posting on here? Not very patriotic of you.
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Topic Originator: Parboiled
Date: Fri 5 May 13:49
Itβs sticky fingers dipping into the dosh fleeced from SNP sheep you should be worried about !
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Fri 5 May 14:04
Quote:
Parboiled, Fri 5 May 13:49
Itβs sticky fingers dipping into the dosh fleeced from SNP sheep you should be worried about !
Shocking really. Wish the SNP had more ambition, our Blue nosed neighbors have managed to get away with fraud amounting to 90,000x more, just in relation to covid contracts. Poor show really
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 5 May 15:30
One of the ironies of the Unionists` position is that any alleged corruption in what they see as a pretendy parish council at Holyrood is much more significant than any blatant corruption demonstrated by our lords and masters at Westminster.
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