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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Fri 22 May 20:42
So the Makerfield by-election is going to be in about 4 weeks’ time and it seems the nation is about to be gripped by the soap opera that is the latest attempt by the Labour party to find a leader that liked both by party members and the population at large.
The local citizenry thus will become the unwitting participants in what may be another referendum on the competence of the Prime Minister. This all seems a little self-indulgent, particularly when there is a country to be run, but there you have it. I suspect Sir Keir will be too busy to campaign.
It does seem a little bit like replacing Peter Grant with John Hughes, although a fair amount of Labour party members polled suggest they would prefer Starmer to the alternatives of Rayner, Streeting, Miliband (E), Cooper, Mahmood or Carns (most of whom probably aren’t interested in the job anyway. Yet). Any putative new incumbent of Number 10 is unlikely to have much material influence on Netanyahu, Putin, Xi or Trump, who seem to be the source of much of the world’s problems.
I think this is another example of the issue that winning a party nomination, winning an individual election, winning a by-election, leading a party and governing as Prime Minister are all different skill sets. And often people who want the top job don’t know what they want to do when they get it – they just want it to look good or to stop someone they don’t like from getting it instead. Burnham at least has a modicum of appropriate experience of running a major (local) government.
It also illustrates the propensity of the electorate to decide (or to be told to decide) that a particular election is about something it theoretically (and practically) is not.
Reform UK did well by all accounts (particularly their own) in the English local elections (although not as well as they thought they would) in what an election (or series of elections) they decided was not about bins or potholes, but a “referendum on Starmer”. So presumably they will be happy for Burnham to win so that he can become PM. This may explain why they seemed to have selected a particularly unpleasant individual as their candidate. Perhaps it is not possible to find a prospective Reform candidate without a dubious history on social media. The Greens seem torn between standing and not standing – their candidate has quit. The other parties are treating it seriously (without any expectations of winning). I suspect they would think in amusing if Burnham failed to win (although secretly relieved if he does).
I imagine the Labour Party (or the half that is pro-Burnham) will have enough firepower to win, particularly when the Reform candidate’s weaknesses come under the relentless spotlight. Burnham already appears to be pivoting to a cooler (that is, less warm) attitude towards the EU.
However, it is not at all clear to me that Burnham would win a leadership challenge. Where does that leave us?
Post Edited (Fri 22 May 21:38)
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 23 May 01:29
I think Burnham will win the by election and probably somewhat convincingly and that will give him unstoppable momentum into Downing Street. I think Farage is a bit worried about the challenge from Burnham though I doubt the £5 million he got from a foreign based crypto billionaire is dependent on him ever becoming PM so h needn`t fret about that.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Jimmy riddell
Date: Mon 25 May 13:46
Burnham is a chancer who changes his opinions with the wind direction.
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Fri 12 Jun 21:07
It’s just under a week to the Makerfield by-election.
I think there was a special by-election edition of Question Time last week which had 5 of the 14 candidates – Labour, Reform, Conservative, Green and Lib Dem. (No Restore). This was unusual.
My feeling was this would be an advantage to Reform – not only not giving publicity to Restore, but also giving their own candidate the chance to appear to be electable, or at least not as bad as feared. Sometime I think there is such a low bar that as long as the candidate doesn’t actually commit a crime or accidentally set their trousers on fire, they will gain.
I didn’t watch the programme, but I have heard that the odds on Reform drifted afterwards.
It’s difficult to get reliable polling information – the last poll I saw had a sample size of 515 (so a margin of error of +/- 4%) but more importantly was sampled over a fortnight so it’s difficult to discern trends. What does seem to be happening is that
1. It’s close, but Labour are ahead
2. The Greens/Tories/Lib Dems are being squeezed
3. Restore could make the difference. The bigger their vote, more chance of Labour winning.
Labour’s internal polls will be pretty accurate. I don’t think you could say this about Reform.
As they say, a week is a long time in politics (who said that – Harold Wilson?) and I think the resignation of John Healey is possibly more of an issue right now.
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Fri 12 Jun 21:24
See Nige has already got his excuses in for this one, regarding family voting 😂
Will show how thick the electorate is if the Reform guy wins, given his previous conduct and bumbling ness in front of the media.
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Fri 12 Jun 21:27
Reform have put up a complete numpty to represent them, they will have been instructed, as all party`s will have, by their Israeli paymasters to stand aside and let Burnham win. Israel want Starmer out, they want their boy Burnham in as PM, and that`s what will happen
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 12 Jun 21:34
Quote:
red-star-par, Fri 12 Jun 21:27
Reform have put up a complete numpty to represent them, they will have been instructed, as all party`s will have, by their Israeli paymasters to stand aside and let Burnham win. Israel want Starmer out, they want their boy Burnham in as PM, and that`s what will happen
Israel involved in UK politics?
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Fri 12 Jun 22:07
I suspect that the margin of error is quite a bit bigger than that MT.
And it`s not just the mathematical calculation of the error..... I suspect the small sample size and the elongated time may also have led to some shortcuts being taken to get a proper sample identified.
And I`m certainly not going to laugh at Farage for getting his excuses in early.... the previous time didn`t end well!
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Fri 12 Jun 23:41
Quote:
jake89, Fri 12 Jun 21:34
Quote:
red-star-par, Fri 12 Jun 21:27
Reform have put up a complete numpty to represent them, they will have been instructed, as all party`s will have, by their Israeli paymasters to stand aside and let Burnham win. Israel want Starmer out, they want their boy Burnham in as PM, and that`s what will happen
Israel involved in UK politics?
I believe our local MP was given a freebie to Israel weeks prior to the 2024 election and he`s now registered as "a friend of Israel "
Not that I`m saying there’s anything wrong with his stance .
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Topic Originator: Dandy Warhol
Date: Sat 13 Jun 07:56
He`s already caved to israel.
I don`t wanna go down like disco.
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Sat 13 Jun 12:30
Quote:
Tenruh, Fri 12 Jun 23:41
Quote:
jake89, Fri 12 Jun 21:34
Quote:
red-star-par, Fri 12 Jun 21:27
Reform have put up a complete numpty to represent them, they will have been instructed, as all party`s will have, by their Israeli paymasters to stand aside and let Burnham win. Israel want Starmer out, they want their boy Burnham in as PM, and that`s what will happen
Israel involved in UK politics?
I believe our local MP was given a freebie to Israel weeks prior to the 2024 election and he`s now registered as "a friend of Israel "
Not that I`m saying there’s anything wrong with his stance .
He was. Downie actually makes an effort for Dunfermline from what I can see but NONE of our politicians seem capable of sorting out the idiots at Fife Council. That new square is an absolute embarrassment. 1.6m spent on that crap while the rest of the high street is crumbling. Boils my p*** seeing the complete lack of ambition at Fife Council. Don`t worry, we`ll soon hear they`re going to promote Dunfermline by paying for the erection of a promotional board in Siberia.
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Mon 15 Jun 12:49
Seems he will appoint Milliband as Chancellor if successful, bring on the clowns!🥳🥳🥳
Post Edited (Mon 15 Jun 12:50)
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Topic Originator: NMCmassive
Date: Sun 21 Jun 02:03
I actually find it infuriating that any local MP finds the time to chip into either side of the Israel/palestine thing irrelevant of what side they choose to take.
We are severely suffering from a competency crisis in Scotland and the UK.
I don’t think Burnham is the answer but Starmer definitely isn’t. I think that the fact everyone knows he’s going to challenge for PM means he was always going to have an extremely high chance of winning. On the face of it he’s done very well as Manchesters mayor however their budget is reportedly not looking very good. They have a total debt of £1.6billion. They increased their borrowing under Burnham. He seems to have used the money wisely but increased debts must be a concern.
COYP
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Mon 22 Jun 16:17
We elect MPs to represent us on matters under consideration by parliament, which includes foreign policy.
I would never even consider voting for someone if they declined to address topics that they will be required to vote on in parliament.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
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Topic Originator: DBP
Date: Mon 22 Jun 18:16
A Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite, a Starmerite, an insider and an outsider walk into a bar. The barman asks: `What are you having, Andy?`.
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Topic Originator: Dandy Warhol
Date: Tue 23 Jun 09:44
Quote:
DBP, Mon 22 Jun 18:16
A Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite, a Starmerite, an insider and an outsider walk into a bar. The barman asks: `What are you having, Andy?`.
Already bought by Israel, so more of the same.
I don`t wanna go down like disco.
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Tue 23 Jun 10:25
Quote:
Dandy Warhol, Tue 23 Jun 09:44
Quote:
DBP, Mon 22 Jun 18:16
A Blairite, a Brownite, a Milibandite, a Starmerite, an insider and an outsider walk into a bar. The barman asks: `What are you having, Andy?`.
Already bought by Israel, so more of the same.
Got to hand it to the Zionists the biggest brainwashing experiment ever and the world`s politicians are just ignoring a genocide.
It starts with us the public,any politicians who is are taking money from a foreign country should be ignored.
Post Edited (Tue 23 Jun 10:26)
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Thu 25 Jun 22:08
So Burnham won the by-election and very comfortably in the end, as predicted by TOWK, and no doubt helped in part by Starmer’s endorsement.
Unusually the turnout was higher than at the last General Election – this rarely happens. I guess this reflects several factors – the local media frenzy, the fact that people believe they were effectively voting for the next prime minister (with some justification) and that a lot of people were voting to keep Reform out (or to get Reform in). I imagine that the collapse of the Green and the Lib Dem votes contributed to the former, the collapse of the Tory vote may have been a bit of both.
Restore’s spoiler campaign would have been helpful initially but became largely irrelevant. I’m not sure where this leaves Rupert Lowe. The lustre seems to have come off Reform a little. Whatever happened to all the promised defections? Farage continues to suffer a bad press and his idea of recruiting experience has stalled.
And what of “The King of the North” (I hate the term). His main assets seem to be a) not being Keir Starmer and b) having been a moderately successful mayor of Manchester. He has a bit of cabinet experience, but it’s a big step up to being PM though. At some point he will have to choose between being popular, and being right.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 26 Jun 07:13
Yeah the not Starmer angle is going to definitely be in Burnham`s favour yet I bet there will be little between them in reality when it comes to policy. Farage and Reform have probably played the anti Starmer line too hard, they played the man and not the ball. Also there does seem to be a high degree of tactical voting to stop Reform winning. You win elections by appealing to the centre, to moderates who will lend a party their votes if their arguments are compelling. Reform aren`t doing that and I doubt they ever can. It`s two ,if not three years, till the next general election but as it stands just now I don`t think things look as bleak for Labour, or indeed the Tories, as they did only a very short while ago.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Jimmy riddell
Date: Fri 26 Jun 20:13
The Northern Messiah has about six months to show he has learnt from Starmer’s unwillingness or inability to address the main issues facing the country: defence, immigration, social welfare and growing the economy. If he doesn’t he’ll be toast just like his predecessor.
Post Edited (Fri 26 Jun 20:17)
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Topic Originator: P
Date: Fri 26 Jun 20:48
He won’t see out his term and the cringeworthy revolving door of PM will spin at least one more time before a general election
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Fri 26 Jun 21:16
Quote:
Jimmy riddell, Fri 26 Jun 20:13
The Northern Messiah has about six months to show he has learnt from Starmer’s unwillingness or inability to address the main issues facing the country: defence, immigration, social welfare and growing the economy. If he doesn’t he’ll be toast just like his predecessor.
I think the highest priority is likely to be agreeing with the lefty Labour MPs and the unions, unfortunately.
I suspect even deciding who will be Chancellor will cause problems very quickly. The unions want Miliband, business certainly does not, and I suspect the bond markets (who we definitely are not in hock to) won`t want to go near him either. It`ll be a mess.
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Topic Originator: Jimmy riddell
Date: Fri 26 Jun 23:13
Can’t argue with that, sadly.
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Fri 26 Jun 23:21
Thought I read that the Unions didn`t want Milliband as chancellor?
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Sat 27 Jun 06:47
Must admit, I`d be very surprised if he makes a difference tbh. A lot of people in England seem to think you can have Scandinavian-standard public services with US-level taxation and Westminster refuses to make businesses pay their fair share as the Nordic states do, with employer contributions. I`d never really resent paying tax in Scotland but I`d honestly never work in England again as you get zero value for your taxes. I`d be fuming if I was an English taxpayer.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Fri 3 Jul 13:36
Starmer seems to have stabbed Burnham back with the announcement of a significant increase in defence spending which has a multi billion hole in the funding.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Fri 3 Jul 16:27
Quote:
Wotsit, Fri 3 Jul 13:36
Starmer seems to have stabbed Burnham back with the announcement of a significant increase in defence spending which has a multi billion hole in the funding.
No doubt billions of contracts heading to Israeli owned arms manufacturers
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Topic Originator: NMCmassive
Date: Fri 3 Jul 23:25
Just listened to him on LBC. He doesn’t half talk a lot of sh17e. Gets all the latest buzzwords in tho!
COYP
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