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 Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Thu 26 Mar 18:50

I don't have Facebook but Mrs Riva does and she was sent a blog (in Italian) by her cousin, from Dr Guido Silvestri, who works at Emory Vaccine Center in Atlanta Georgia.

He outlines several rational reasons why we can look forward with cautious optimism to overcoming the coronavirus and doesn't miss those who have been peddling fake news on social media - some in good faith, others who get some perverse kick out of frightening those who are already anxious about themselves or members of their own family.

Perhaps someone who has Facebook can find the blog and post it or a link on this thread. I'm 100% convinced it's genuine.

It starts with ''I've just worked a 14 hour shift and I'm very tired...."

Thanks.



Not your average Sunday League player.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: Jjonjord  
Date:   Thu 26 Mar 20:12

Probably this?
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Thu 26 Mar 20:20

Quote:

Jjonjord, Thu 26 Mar 20:12

Probably this?


That's the one. Can you do an English version/translation?



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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: DulochConvert  
Date:   Thu 26 Mar 22:20

My reading from that is that the death rate isn’t going to be anything as high as predicted, due to the large number of people who have had it and not tested. I would be interested in a breakdown per age group to those test, results and number of deaths.
Now in my third week and feeling better, just a slightly wheezy chest, but looking back I am sure I have had it, at the start I didn’t realise I just had a massive headache and sore body combined with feeling ****. Not the fever or cough as we were told to check for.
In the next week two of my kids were off school for 2 days with a headache and feeling **** and my wife had similar symptoms, so probably my family of 5 have had it.
4 days later I had my first fever and a poor feeling chest, this is when the instructions were I should self isolate for 7 days, which I did. My kids etc were not included in this.
Next the instructions change to 14 days, but to late if we spread it, continued to have fevers for the next 10 days. I couldn’t be tested but couldn’t go to a doctor as only hospitals were.

At no point at the start did I think we had it, no cases in Fife! However due to the length of time involved it looks very likely.
You have to think the preliminary warning were far to late and they underestimated the initial numbers. This has been proven to be the case in Italy.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: renegade master  
Date:   Thu 26 Mar 23:07

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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Thu 26 Mar 23:45

Covid-19 has always been a sars virus. In fact sars-cov-2 is its proper moniker.

No one would talk much in society if they realised how often they misunderstood others
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: renegade master  
Date:   Thu 26 Mar 23:56

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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 00:05

Nothing
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/relatively-stable-sars-cov-2-genome-is-good-news-for-a-vaccine-67319

No one would talk much in society if they realised how often they misunderstood others
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 00:08

Ref: GG Riva
Date: Thu 26 Mar 20:20

<<<Quote:

Jjonjord, Thu 26 Mar 20:12

Probably this?


That's the one. Can you do an English version/translation?>>>

When I click on GG Riva's link, I get Dr Silvestri's Facebook post with a wee box to click on for translation. I would post the translation but am unable to copy it. Perhaps others who click on the link might get the wee 'translate' box as well?

In Dr Silvestri's post there is no mention of MERS or SARS strains. His conclusion is this:

“I remain firmly optimistic…I am convinced that in a few months we will be back to live as before, indeed that we will live better than before, if … we have learned the right lessons…”
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 06:33

Here is Dr Silvestri's post in full, with special thanks to Al k who translated a good slice of it on the East End Bounce. I feel it's important to share any positive news, as there are a lot of scared and worried people out there - and with good reason.

''I write this post at the end of a 14-hour day between hospital and laboratory (and tomorrow will be even worse). I am very tired, I have a headache, but I do it willingly because I firmly believe that giving GOOD INFORMATION is very useful in a difficult moment like this.

1) ORIGIN OF THE VIRUS.

A systematic study of the genetic sequences of SARS-CoV-2 (Andersen KG et al. Nature Medicine 2020) was released two days ago which demonstrates without a shadow of a doubt that the virus has a natural and zoonotic origin (from animals, and in particular bats and pangolins). So the history of the virus "created" in the laboratory is confirmed as a colossal hoax.

2) COVID-19 IN CHILDREN.

The comprehensive study of the COVID-19 infection in Chinese children shows that over 2145 total cases over 90% were asymptomatic, mild or moderate, with only one death reported, due to lethality of the infection - defined as the number of deaths divided by the total of cases - which is <0.05% for those under 18 years of age (Dong Y et al. Pediatrics 2020).

3) DEADLINESS OF COVID-19.

While deaths increase dramatically both in Italy and in other countries, it is important to remember that on the basis of the overall data available, lethality is estimated to be less than 2%, which means that 98% of infected people recover (Fauci AS, personal communication ). The high number of deaths we observe these days is therefore related to the high number of infected people, often with mild symptoms or even without symptoms. I also remember that all available data confirm that the vast majority of deaths are over 60 years old and have important co-morbidities (diabetes, hypertension, COPD, ischemic heart disease).

4) VIRUS ON SURFACES.

A recent study indicates that SARS-CoV-2 lives up to three days on certain surfaces such as plastic and steel, and only for a few hours on surfaces such as cardboard and copper. The virus appears to survive for a short time, a few hours at most, as an aerosol (Van Doremalen et al., N Engl J Med 2020). We avoid "the virus survives in the asphalt for months", which are based on nothing.

5) NATURAL IMMUNITY.

Data on natural immunity to SARS-CoV-2 that is acquired by infected and healed people are not currently such as to allow peremptory claims, but as far as we know about other coronaviruses, at least a temporary natural immunity should develop for a period of at least 6 -12 months (Ralph Baric, interview on "The Week in Virology podcast" - remember that Baric is to coronaviruses as Maradona is to football).

6) THERAPIES.

At the moment, the most important thing in severe or critical cases of COVID-19 - which are a minority - is respiratory support, while there are no "magic drugs" that heal the disease, neither in Russia nor elsewhere. However, reasonable hopes come from antivirals such as Remdesivir, and immunomodulators such as Tocilizumab, Baraticinib, and others. I remember that the latter are therapies to be reserved for severe or critical cases, while mild and moderate ones heal on their own or with symptomatic therapy.

7) VACCINE.

 Work is being done busily especially here in the USA on various vaccination platforms, in particular RNA vaccines and recombinant spike (S) protein vaccines. These vaccines could be ready for initial clinical studies (safety + immunogenicity) by next autumn, although for actual clinical efficacy studies it will probably take 12-18 months.

8) TEMPERATURE EFFECT.

There are still indications - not evidence, but certainly clues/hints - that the damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may at least partially mitigate with the arrival of spring. In this sense, it will be important to follow the progress of the virus in Africa, Latin America and S.E. Asia, particularly Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, India and Bangladesh (and perhaps Southern Italy.)

9) EFFECT OF CHARLATANS

Will you all please stop listening to them for once? I'm referring to charlatans acting in bad faith - they are jackals, scoundrels and beggars - and those, ahem, acting in good faith, gullible, frightened people, who spread false information because they simply don't know what they're talking about. Disinformation has never served any purpose, far less in this situation.

10) OPTIMISM ALWAYS, HOWEVER

I remain firmly optimistic, in spite of everything and convinced that in a few months, we'll go back to life as before - rather, we'll live better than before, if from this great fear we have learned the right lessons, as scientists, citizens and humanity in general. Because this is the true, great challenge which we must all win together - to honour the victims of this disease in the best possible way.

With this I bid you all good day, thank you as always for following me and goodbye until I have another moment I can breathe!"

Eta, This man is one of many, many heroes working tirelessly to try and save many lives around the globe and they all deserve our humble gratitude and applause.





Not your average Sunday League player.

Post Edited (Fri 27 Mar 06:39)
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 09:53

Reasons to be optimistic.
..... (eh)..............(um)....(??)...... 'Doh!'


From Business Insider, 24/3/20:

'All the reasons to be optimistic about the end of the coronavirus' :


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-there-is-hope-end-of-the-crisis-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Mainly:

'Life in China and South Korea is returning to normal'

'There are signs that the rate of infection in Italy is moderating'

'Intervention works' (lockdown etc)

'Spring and summer will likely be helpful'

'The time frame for 'getting through this' seems to be a little over 2 months'



Post Edited (Fri 27 Mar 10:02)
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 12:11

The 0.5 fatality rate put forward by the Italian doctor is in line with the figures being recorded in Germany. In fact this was the very figure being mooted at the outset of the outbreak but has since been overtaken by hysterical tabloid daily death tolls and talk of ice rinks being used for mass mortuaries. No newspaper ever went broke by putting the fear of death into its readership.

You might think that a responsible government would be putting that fatality rate out into public conversation in order to reassure its citizens, to calm things down a bit. But there may be a reason it cannot. The problem with this virus is not the death rate but the danger of the NHS being overwhelmed by those seriously enough affected as to require hospital care. If there is a shortage of beds or ventilators then the public will, rightly or wrongly, accuse the government of incompetence. So far better to scare the public with the prospect of mass graves, then when the true situation become clearer, to claim a magnificent victory over a killer virus, all led by the Churchillian hero who nearly succumbed to it himself but, like the country, came back stronger.

As for the emergency powers granted during the outbreak, well don’t expect them to be relaxed anytime soon. Like these other endless wars, like the War on Drugs or the War on Terror, the War on Virus will require us to be vigilant in the years that follow.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: ipswichpar  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 12:33

The fatality rate will be correlated with the stress on the healthcare system in my opinion. Germany's will be lower than average for this reason

Also, Germany are clearly testing many more just now at 500k/month whereas the UK government were patting themselves on the back for reaching 6.4k a day earlier this week.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: parsmad68  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 13:00

German tax rates are extremely high. Not saying that is the reason for the lack of testing kits as there is no correlation, but the government has much more money to play with in Germany than we do.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: ipswichpar  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 13:08

Quote:

parsmad68, Fri 27 Mar 13:00

German tax rates are extremely high. Not saying that is the reason for the lack of testing kits as there is no correlation, but the government has much more money to play with in Germany than we do.


And they still make stuff. They will be able to more readily make their own.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: londonparsfan  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 13:24

The mortality rate is all over the place depending on which country you look at and the numbers will be less accurate the fewer test a country has done.

Italy has a mortality rate of over 10% at the moment but the true number of infected people in Italy is probably much higher than the reported figure and that would bring the rate down.

Some place like Russia aren't always attributing deaths to the virus as the underlying cause so if someone died of pneumonia brought on by the virus then the official record of death a
Is recorded as pneumonia which helps skew the figures again.

The initial estimate by the WHO was 2% and is now at 3% and they have a wider view of the cases rather than individual Doctors. 97% as a survival rate sounds great until you work out what 3% of a given population is as a number which is why the social distancing and quarantining of carriers is vital to stop the transmission otherwise it will be the apocalyptic numbers.

There seems to be some optimism that the warmer weather will help so hopefully it does.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: moviescot  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 16:11

Quote:

renegade master, Thu 26 Mar 23:07

Bottom Line the government have taken all data and worked hard to quash the curve, the idiots are trying to spoil it.

The next week we will see a curve up and down if it has worked.

I sincerely hope it does, the mutated version with SARS and MERS within the virus is what is now the main killer in Spain and Italy. testing kits are desperately required to see what we are dealing with.

Covid 19 is weakening, the SARS and MERS strain is the mutation killing everyone not just the vulnerable.

this is what we are preparing for!


This is just the sort of scaremongering nonsense that non experts need to stop spreading.

Post Edited (Fri 27 Mar 16:12)
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: jake89  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 16:55

Mortality data is going to be poor no matter how you look at it. Each country has different demographics and are approaching testing in different ways. Some testing very few people, some testing a lot.

Also, if someone with a terminal condition dies and happened to have Coronavirus, did they die from the existing condition, or was it Coronavirus? Who knows?
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: DulochConvert  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 17:34

Chief medical officer Catherine Calderwood said the actual number of people infected in Scotland could be more than 65,000.

Which a 65 times the actual number recorded and no knowledge of the demographics infected this pretty much means the mortality rate is unknown.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: widtink  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 17:39

"could be"...



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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: jake89  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 18:08

Or it could be 3 million. Given some people will have no symptoms whatsoever, you won't know unless you test!
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: donj  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 18:35

That has been the problem everywhere.The stats can only work on real figures and all they have is tested,admitted and dead.When these home tests come it will be a bit more accurate.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 18:44

Quote:

donj, Fri 27 Mar 18:35

That has been the problem everywhere.The stats can only work on real figures and all they have is tested,admitted and dead.When these home tests come it will be a bit more accurate.


How will they ever compile reliable stats if they don't know the total number of people infected, given that some are completely asymptomatic and therefore don't even know they've had it.



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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: ipswichpar  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 19:27

Once they have the antibody test they can test a large enough sample and work it out.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: GG Riva  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 19:54

Quote:

ipswichpar, Fri 27 Mar 19:27

Once they have the antibody test they can test a large enough sample and work it out.


I take it they would sample a large number of people - like an opinion poll - and scale it up?



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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: ipswichpar  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 19:56

Exactly. Big enough to get a result +- x% with y% confidence level.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: EEP  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 21:59

China already has the cure tbh.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 22:49

Slowly the voices of jake89, donj and GG Riva are starting to assert themselves. Rooted in logic and common sense. But still, for my liking, too apologetic.

This plague has never been about death. The fear of death is being sold to a panicked public for political reasons. Coronavirus is about the capacity of hospitals from Beijing, Baku, Berlin and Birmingham to deal with a massive overload on their facilities. Dead persons who lacked a bed or a ventilator is political death for any government, hence the enforced lockdown which is largely unnecessary but a attempt to level out the rate of infection, which is inevitable in the long term. Our financial leaders are the Gods who have failed; have failed to provide the necessary cover, full of phrases like Just in Time production or Lean Production.

But will they be admitting to this anytime soon? Not on your Nellie. Volunteers and clapping NHS staff will be the order of the day. A photo opportunity of Royals clapping the NHS. Why is a refuse collector today worth more important than a hedge fund manager? On this they can say nothing. But they are waiting to get things back to normal and will persuade you that you want this as well. Don't worry. Normal serviced will soon be resumed. Charles will recover so the land is safe and Boris will guarantee the money. Business a usual. Plebs return to your duties.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: jake89  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 23:09

What I find fishy at the moment is that Dyson got the order for ventilators when Gtech already had an offer and even offered to share the designs for others to copy. Why have Gtech been told not to bother when Dyson can't provide the full complement? People are suggesting it's because James Dyson is a Tory donar but that seems too obvious.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: EEP  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 23:22

I find it funny that 2 hoover manufacturers get the order? Is there not any ventilator manufacturers out there?
A world cleanse imo. scammer has explains this situation!
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: donj  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 23:30

Gtech who had a design they were going to produce and share were told basically to p*** off as Dyson were going to make one and keep it to themselves.

Tory bias even in this is sick.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: londonparsfan  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 23:35

Quote:

EEP, Fri 27 Mar 23:22

I find it funny that 2 hoover manufacturers get the order? Is there not any ventilator manufacturers out there?
A world cleanse imo. scammer has explains this situation!


There are but why pay full whack for an approved industry standard model when you can ask your mate to produce a cheap knock off?
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: Boomer  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 23:40

Sammer my cousin is a Surgeon who works and lives in Madrid and yes they are using more than one sporting facility as a Morgue sadly. They are struggling to cope and she is basically working as a nurse as they have cancelled routine operations. Then again you are obviously an expert in this matter so who is my cousin to suggest you are a pr..k
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: parathletic  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 23:43

I presume the specialist companies will struggle to scale up their operations?

A consortium called Ventilator Challenge UK, involving companies including Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Ford, is separately providing the manufacturing muscle to scale up production of proven models already made by the specialist UK firms Smiths and Penlon
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Fri 27 Mar 23:57

Boomer,

There is no need to call me names. I have heard worse in my time. I think you are frightened.

My younger daughter works as a midwife in Kirkcaldy and was stopped by the police yesterday on her way to work. She has absorbed enough of my politics to tell them where to get off. Finger waggers are growing by the day. Moralists have been resurrected from their mid 1960s tombs.

This virus is being used as a curtailment of human rights and we have people on this site screaming for the army on the streets. Once the army is on the streets they will be screaming for sure, but when their doors are being kicked in maybe screaming in a way they did not want.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: EEP  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 00:00

Not trying to be funny but there are ventilators out there so why can’t companies just copy them and get them out as quick as possible?
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: parathletic  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 00:05

Because you need infrastructure to build them. I assume you need to build machinery and have people who have the skills to do it which takes time.It won't be a bit of sticky-back plastic and a Fairy liquid bottle I'm guessing.



Post Edited (Sat 28 Mar 00:06)
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: DulochConvert  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 00:10

Trump has declared that GM are to build them for America, strange how this instruction will be implemented into there capitalist manufacturing system!
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 00:10

Sammer the army isn't going to be kicking down any doors. Even in your adopted homeland human rights are being curtailed as restrictions are placed on freedom of movement with further escalations expected.

No one would talk much in society if they realised how often they misunderstood others
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: sammer  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 00:27

Don't I now it TOWK. They are closing the bars in Moscow from tomorrow so my last hit was a few hours ago.

Of course there will be plenty Moscow shebeens so don't worry on my behalf. I will find them. Same as in UK, unreported by MSM, there are shut ins all over the UK. If the police try to intervene they will be sent packing. It's like pitch and toss schools from the 1920s.

I will be drinking as a 65 year old at my own risk. I don't need some lettuce eating middle class prat with issues to tell me how live.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: red-star-par  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 01:46

Sammer speaks a lot of sense here. I have seen friends of mine change in the last couple of weeks, begging to get a lock down, wanting the army on the streets, asking for a vaccine.... Be careful what you wish for
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: ipswichpar  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 07:09

Sammer, what makes you think, if you get it (not wishing ill on you) that you wont pass it to someone else who gets seriously ill or dies? I'm not sure which beggars belief more, your paranoia or your arrogance.

We are simply living organisms who have become too used to not really having many threats to our existence. I wouldn't let your paranoia that our capitalist overlords or whatever you want to call them are looking to **** us over at every opportunity.

It seems rather strange to argue that folk have lost the plot about this on one hand but to even suggest an equivalently likely outcome is the army on the street and kicking down our doors.
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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: P  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 09:20

Quite literally says it’s about capacity of beds then next post says he’s going to lock ins which in turn will help spread it and thus result in pressure on bed capacity🤷🏻‍♂️


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 Re: Coronavirus - Reasons to be optimistic
Topic Originator: onandupthepars  
Date:   Sat 28 Mar 10:05

This thread started off quite promisingly with the potential to provide a wee bit of uplift, a necessity for many. That's a worthy purpose.

What use is this thread now?
Can't the cynics and doom-mongers restrain themselves?
Can't you leave one wee space on dotnet where we could go for peace, a break from life?

I'm not usually one to bother if a thread goes off topic but there is a need now for a thread devoted completely to 'Reasons to be optimistic.'

Or are you going to argue about that as well?

Come on bruvs and sisters. We can do better.
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