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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Sat 14 Sep 20:34
There have been plenty of managers down the years who have tried to explain away the failure of their team to beat opponents that had had a man sent off by claiming that "it`s harder to beat 10 men than 11."
Are there any stats that back up this claim or prove that it`s demonstrably untrue? My gut feeling is that, on average, 10 men will lose more often than 11. We tend to forget these occasions but are more likely to remember the games in which the 10 men hold out for a draw or even snatch an unlikely win.
Not your average Sunday League player.
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Topic Originator: Paralex
Date: Sat 14 Sep 20:40
I would guess that the loss of a player in the first half usually results in a win for the team with 11 men but I would also send a subliminal message to James McPake ( because he`s unlikely to read this) to have a quiet word with his vice captain (Chris Hamilton) not to blatantly pull an opponent`s shirt, in the penalty area, when we`re one nil up.
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Topic Originator: Jeffery
Date: Sat 14 Sep 20:52
I`d say it`s not harder to beat a team of 10, but the pressure of expectation is harder to handle.
With no stats to back it up I`d say it`s more often midfielders or defenders sent off? When that happens you generally find that a forward is sacrificed to fill the `gap`. This means the 10 man team doesn`t get much weaker defensively but are probably less effective going forward. Still nothing to stop them scoring a breakaway goal or scoring from a set piece so it`s not a done deal.
If a team goes down to 8 outfield (say Stevenson went for his barge on Comrie yesterday) then it becomes really interesting!
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Topic Originator: JTH123
Date: Sat 14 Sep 20:52
To be honest it was just as well that the member of the backroom staff got a red card for flooring Vaughan after he poleaxed Chris in the back during the melee. Hamilton is a combative lad but along with the rest of the team kept his composure to see out the match.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Sat 14 Sep 21:06
Remember Falkirk going down to 9 men against us at EEP and we struggled and even conceded one before Cardle got a third in the last minute…
What an opportunity we missed in 2014.
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Topic Originator: vasco
Date: Sat 14 Sep 22:20
I`m pretty sure statistics will show that 11v10 wins a large number more times than 11v11.
However.
One of the most pleasurable games I have enjoyed in the past few years was the 0-0 draw at Airdrie when Pars were down to 10 men. For satisfaction, for me, I think it surpassed the 4-3 Pars victory when Pars game back from 0-3 after Smith was red carded for Airdrie earlier that season.
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Topic Originator: Angus_W
Date: Sat 14 Sep 22:50
It’s a tricky one…….
Ayr - Joe Cardle sent off and we were hanging on for 1-1. Think it was FEB slides a ball in for D Hopkirk who scores. It was backs to the wall with BER playing a blinder at the back.
Could have as easily lost that game.
“.........it ain’t over till the Pars score!”
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Topic Originator: Bletchley_Par
Date: Sat 14 Sep 23:06
It`s a false axiom and an absurd one at that.
"A watched pot never boils."
"What doesn`t kill you makes you stronger."
"Every cloud has a silver lining."
"Good things come to those who wait."
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Topic Originator: weemike
Date: Sat 14 Sep 23:10
As we seen with the first half, is that the red card is kinda treated and celebrated like a goal. When the game is, in fact, 0-0.
We took the foot off the gas once we had the man advantage.
The team should be instructed and well trained to pass the opposition to death when we have the man advantage.
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Topic Originator: Stanza
Date: Sun 15 Sep 14:13
There may well be more recent analyses, but 2009-2013 research in England showed that a team going down to ten men is more likely to lose points, as one would expect.
Interestingly, a home team losing a man is affected more than an away team, perhaps because of the expectation that the home team.is more likely to win an 11 v 11 match.
BBC News - Is it really harder to play against 10 men? - BBC News
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-34350828
_________________
 Support Dunfermline Athletic Disabled Supporters` Club (DADSC) when you shop online with one of 8000 firms: https://www.easyfundraising.org.uk/causes/dadsc[
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Sun 15 Sep 14:45
I’ve always thought the best thing to do in these scenarios is to allow one of our players a free role to go where he wants and not have to mark an opponent.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Sun 15 Sep 15:24
Mind us going down a man during Macca`s tenure. Kept 2 upfront and David Graham ran rampant in a 6-1 win. Incredible game
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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Sun 15 Sep 16:28
Quote:
Andrew283, Sun 15 Sept 15:24
Mind us going down a man during Macca`s tenure. Kept 2 upfront and David Graham ran rampant in a 6-1 win. Incredible game
I can`t recall that game at all, Andrew. If you can remember who our opponents were, that might jog my memory. 🙂
Not your average Sunday League player.
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Topic Originator: DJAS
Date: Sun 15 Sep 16:47
We beat QOS 6-1 and went down to 10 during Graham era but he never scored a hat trick and QOS went down to 10 when we were 3 or 4-1 up
Predictor league winner 2012/2013
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Sun 15 Sep 18:30
Quote:
DJAS, Sun 15 Sept 16:47
We beat QOS 6-1 and went down to 10 during Graham era but he never scored a hat trick and QOS went down to 10 when we were 3 or 4-1 up
Incorrect. It was 1-0 at the time. Rusty got sent off just before HT. It was the week before the Raith game.
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Sun 15 Sep 18:45
Obviously it’s not easier - presumably any manager who thinks it is will be sending out their team a man short next time they visit Parkhead or Ibrox.
The issue is perhaps more of a lack of understanding of the magnitude of the advantage – but then people tend to be bad at this – that’s one reason bookies make money.
I think the question may be – which would you prefer – a man advantage or a goal advantage? This question can become pertinent with a red card for denying a goal-scoring opportunity. I guess time is a factor. Perhaps there is some rule of thumb to convert time spent short-handed to likely goals conceded.
I thought Friday’s match was a fairly typical example of the genre.
Rovers went to a 4-4-1 effectively conceding the final third, and hence allowing us more of the ball, in order to remain competitive in their own half, perhaps hoping to nick a goal on the break or from a set piece. I’m sure teams practice this endlessly in training. (We saw this when we drew 2 players down at Airdrie a couple of years ago). And perhaps this is “easier” in terms of management decision making.
On Friday our young defence had much less to do than normal but they still had to concentrate and were never really troubled.
The perceived wisdom is that the team with the extra player should “make the pitch big", presumably to tire out the opposition, and create space where their extra player will have time to create something. This can result in a lot of dull sideways shuttling of the ball waiting for something to happen (but that is a style we have been playing anyway). An alternative may be to randomise things on the grounds that a loose ball is more likely to break for you, or that you will regain possession easily from any clearance up the park.
It took us 37 minutes of numerical advantage to get the goal, from a shot that took a huge deflection – but perhaps that’s the break you need to create. That changed the game – we could control it thereafter and inevitably there would come a time where they had to take risks – leaving a big gap which Spoony exploited.
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Topic Originator: Raymie the Legend
Date: Sun 15 Sep 19:21
They went down to ten men and we persisted with four at the back against one striker.
It’s no surprise that we made very little happen until the fortunate deflection changed the game
It`s bloody tough being a legend
Ron Atkinson - 1983
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Topic Originator: DJAS
Date: Sun 15 Sep 19:26
Quote:
da_no_1, Sun 15 Sep 18:30
Quote:
DJAS, Sun 15 Sept 16:47
We beat QOS 6-1 and went down to 10 during Graham era but he never scored a hat trick and QOS went down to 10 when we were 3 or 4-1 up
Incorrect. It was 1-0 at the time. Rusty got sent off just before HT. It was the week before the Raith game.
It wasn’t yesterday anyway. Can’t remember every detail
Predictor league winner 2012/2013
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Topic Originator: weemike
Date: Sun 15 Sep 19:37
Quote:
Raymie the Legend, Sun 15 Sept 19:21
They went down to ten men and we persisted with four at the back against one striker.
It’s no surprise that we made very little happen until the fortunate deflection changed the game
It`s ironic that if there was ever a time to go 3 at the back, that would be it!
But we got 3 points, so the manager got it correct.
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Topic Originator: MinnesotaAndy
Date: Mon 16 Sep 14:51
I remember watching a Barcelona game several months ago. When they had a man sent off, they stopped playing tippy tappy football from their own six yard box, and relied on the goalie attempting long passes.
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