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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Wed 16 Jan 21:56
Surprised there hasn't been a thread on this but forum is quiet I accept.
Anyway thoughts on these past few days of drama in Westminster?
May loses the biggest vote ever seen in the HOC then wins by default tonight thanks to the ultra prehistoric DUP who swayed the vote of no confidence by a single vote.
Is Jeremy Corbyn a total charlatan happy to see Brexit happen?
Is Michael Gove lined up to replace May very soon?
Look forward to some response.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
Post Edited (Wed 16 Jan 21:57)
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Topic Originator: Lebowski
Date: Thu 17 Jan 06:36
It's certainly intriguing. In a position where both hard Brexiteers and Peoples Vote supporters are confident. At least one a side is going to feel mightily disappointed. Possibly both.
The cynic in me would suggest that this is a right wing ruse to run down the clock to a default hard brexit. The fact that extending Article 50 is being dismissed out of hand is a concern on this front. I suspect that this won't be allowed to happen but it may be very late in the day before it is averted.
Corbyn is either a total mug (possible) or playing a clever game. The fact that he is opposition leader amidst this absolute cluster f***, has an open goal to shoot in to and still manages to be behind the Tories in the poll says something. However about have placed May in a tricky position.
In order to get any sort of deal in the commons, May now needs to choose a side within the Tory party. In essence this throws the whole thing back to where it started - an internal wrangle in the Tory party. She now has to either submit to the ERG and allow a hard Brexit to pass or pursue support for a much softer Brexit with solid X-party support. Either way it could mean a serious split in the Tories with long term consequences. This is very pleasing although I wish they had f****d off into a corner and done that quietly rather than trying to take the entire UK down with them.
Corbyn is unlikely to come out for a 2nd referendum as he knows it will make him unelectable by alienating constituencies that he needs to win. Again, this may change before March 29. Corbyns pursuit of a GE is unlikely I think and his own party may force a revised position on this.
Lots of party politics to be played out yet.
Sturgeon and the SNP would be best served not mentioning a thing about Indy ref 2 and letting this play out and being seen to be cooperative and collaborative. They probably won't though.
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Topic Originator: londonparsclub
Date: Thu 17 Jan 09:21
Politicians in serving themselves and not the people shocker
HF05
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Thu 17 Jan 09:25
Absolutely no need for the snp to talk about indy ref 2 as it's almost a certainty it will happen within five years now. If we leave the EU, and to respect democracy we must in some form, then that's grounds for a second indy ref. If Brexit is somehow cancelled or is a brexit in name only then the rise of the far right in England will make the calls for Scotland to gtf out of the union inescapable.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 17 Jan 10:20
I agree with all that TOWK except I think indyref could happen as early as this year and certainly before the next Scottish elections as no guarantee SNP would get a big enough majority then.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Thu 17 Jan 10:53
It won't happen without the sanctioning of the UK government and that sure as hell isn't going to happen.
Only an idiot would really think that the electorate really wants another referendum/election right now.
The majority just want to have delivered what they voted for two years ago.
And if that means No Deal, then so be it.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Thu 17 Jan 11:42
If that means the softest of soft brexit then so be it as well then yes?
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Thu 17 Jan 11:43
The No Deal Crash-Out Brexit died before xmas when the Tory right wing failed to dislodge Theresa May. If they have not got the power to remove a PM who has since suffered the greatest parliamentary defeat in history, then they are clearly incapable of imposing a No Deal on the country at large. That is before we consider the organisations which fund the Tory Party, who are quite clear about being opposed to No Deal. Theresa May’s No Deal bluff has been called.
That leaves a negotiated Brexit along the lines which May suggested, but has been overwhelmingly rejected on Tuesday, and Remain. As May pointed out on Tuesday, the parliament was very clear about what it did not want, but has still to say what it actually does want. The EU is similarly waiting for that answer.
Remain seems unlikely for a couple of reasons. First of all it disregards the original referendum vote from two years ago, and even in the event of a second referendum there is no guarantee the vote would be reversed as many Remainers seem to assume.
So what next? I think the parliament will have to do what should have been done two years ago: respect the 52% who wished to leave Europe while respecting the 48% who wished to stay. That means a compromise, a halfway house likely to leave many discontented of course, but politics is the art of the possible as Harold Wilson once observed. If Theresa May had sidelined her right wing fanatics and the DUP, people who will never be satisfied until we bring back flogging for peasants or invade Eire, and entered negotiations without her ‘red lines’ then some sort of Norway type deal could have been done and dusted by now. Which is pretty much what the UK voted for two years ago, and even a second referendum which narrowly reversed the first vote would be telling us much the same thing.
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Thu 17 Jan 14:44
Corbyn is a fake a fraud and a coward.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 17 Jan 15:33
I love it when people say the Government should just deliver what people voted for... as if people knew what they were voting for.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Thu 17 Jan 15:38
Well months ago when I said we should take a hard stance and threaten to walk away without a deal it was greeted by some on here as madness but now that "No Deal" is in the air, we get this from Germany.
"GERMANY will do “everything we can” to make sure the UK leaves the European Union with a deal, the country’s foreign minister Heiko Maas said."
If as I suggested we had sent a "Leaver" to head the negotiations and made it plain 6 months ago this was what the UK were going to do if they didn't get fair terms we could have avoided these shenanigans and brought a sense of reality to Brussels.
As usual with the UK it is the ordinary man and woman in the street who has supplied the backbone to our incompetent leaders. Lions led by donkeys.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Thu 17 Jan 15:47
I think that was more an offer of collaboration rather than a desperate attempt to avoid a no deal that gives us the upper hand.
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Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Thu 17 Jan 16:41
"then some sort of Norway type deal could have been done and dusted by now. Which is pretty much what the UK voted for two years ago"
Lies.
The UK voted to leave the EU. Simple as that. Norway or any other halfway house was not on the table. It was in or out, and we said out.
The good old days
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 17 Jan 16:50
Quote:
Bertiesback, Thu 17 Jan 15:38
Well months ago when I said we should take a hard stance and threaten to walk away without a deal it was greeted by some on here as madness but now that "No Deal" is in the air, we get this from Germany.
"GERMANY will do “everything we can” to make sure the UK leaves the European Union with a deal, the country’s foreign minister Heiko Maas said."
If as I suggested we had sent a "Leaver" to head the negotiations and made it plain 6 months ago this was what the UK were going to do if they didn't get fair terms we could have avoided these shenanigans and brought a sense of reality to Brussels.
As usual with the UK it is the ordinary man and woman in the street who has supplied the backbone to our incompetent leaders. Lions led by donkeys.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-germany-maas-idUSKCN1PB1HE
Here is the full quote as I'm sure you wouldn't want to be accused of cherry picking ;)
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 17 Jan 16:59
A no deal leaves the UK in a huge mess.
The good Friday agreement is in tatters as a hard border will come in Ireland.
Companies are as I speak leaving and moving to Europe, Phillips the latest plant in England.
The pound is at a constant low for months on end with no signs of recovery.
Exports to Europe are going to fall dramatically and the farming industry that relies on food exports will take the biggest hit.
Dover to Calais will be chaos for lorry drivers as the French will most certainly step up checks on goods leaving the UK border.
But some good news. Support for indyref is rising on the back of it all and even a Herald led poll had 56% backing one today with others before in the high 50's too, it is inevitable Scotland must decide her future once more.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Thu 17 Jan 17:42
Only sure thing about Brexit is that it will lead to Scottish independence.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Thu 17 Jan 18:14
AAPS
I don't know why you said that, in that way.
The point is the Germans do not want us to leave without a deal. To frame it like they want to do us a favour is just German BS. There is only one thing that is worrying them - thousands of car workers being paid off and maybe even as I said Britain making their own cars etc again and doing what they did before - make them better. Or get their motors from Asia.
"“We’re prepared for all scenarios - we are continuing to plan for a disorderly Brexit scenario and we will step up this planning - it’s about preventing any negative impact for citizens and our companies to the extent possible.” Note the words - TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE - very telling.
Nothing there will change the bitter cold wind that will blow across the German factories if Britain leaves without a deal.
It is a fact that Germany has bankrolled the weaker members of the EU in crisis.
This has been done while Germany was flush and selling £Billions worth of goods to the UK.Let's see how the German public (who are already pissed off with the massive influx of immigrants) react to pushing out money to other countries while their own people are unemployed.
Ireland has already stuck their hand out for recompense and if this all goes pear shaped for the EU there will be all hell to pay for and mass recriminations amongst the 27. The EU will be already starting to regret the dismissive and bullying approach their chief negotiators have taken with the UK.
This country can gain a lot from a no deal if we re-industrialise and pour more resources into R&D
Note I say all this in the full knowledge that we will also take an initial hit, especially Scotland (as is usual) but the point is not to leave without a deal but to be prepared to and to force the EU to realise they DO NOT have the whip hand.
By the way if there is no deal, there is no intention of having a hard border between NI and Ireland. That is something both parties have said and the EU has already said it is up to the parties involved. Are the EU going to drive Ireland into disaster? I doubt it.
"We’ve had help answering this question from our friends at the Institute for Government.
That’s very unclear. Theresa May has said “We are obviously committed to no hard border, and we have made it clear that in any circumstances, including in a no-deal situation, we would be doing all that we could to ensure that there was no hard border.”
The Pound.
"Pound Sterling in Strong Recovery after Brexit Deal Voted Down"
"The GBP/EUR exchange rate continues its ascent with the pair hitting a new 2019 high at 1.1307, which amounts to a 1.58% advance for the year."
Calais has already started to upgrade their port facilities because they are now afraid their business will go to other euro ports if there is a no deal.
Honestly AAPS I think you have been nobbled by Project Fear. There is a lady EU politician (Malta) on SKY NEWS now absolutely bricking it and imploring the UK to have another referendum - why because they are not worried about us but about themselves.
As you like links. Here is some reality links.
https://www.relocatemagazine.com/news/brexit-no-deal-brexit-poses-immense-challenge-to-germany-dsapsted
https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/63730
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/110004588/europe-preps-for-a-chaotic-brexit-with-extra-security-customs-officers-and-emergency-decrees
Post Edited (Thu 17 Jan 18:50)
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Thu 17 Jan 18:19
Captain, Norway isn't in the EU. Simple as that.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Thu 17 Jan 19:59
'Captain, Norway isn't in the EU.'
Indeed. Which is why an advisory referendum such as the UK had, two years ago, on continuing membership of the EU and that ended with what amounted to a split vote was never a mandate for all-in or all-out. Norway has a trading deal with the EU but is not a member itself, so is in a half-in half out situation that would seem to reflect UK opinion as last recorded.
The idea that the EU needs the UK is pure fantasy. In fact former President de Gaulle was intent on keeping the UK out and perhaps recent events have justified his position. He saw the Franco-German alliance, forged by the horror of two world wars, as the heart of the then Common Market and the UK as a cuckoo in the nest. We joined the EU in the mid 1970s when our imperial advantages of the past had been removed and we were struggling to compete internationally. Since then we have seen our shipbuilding, our car, our coalmining, and our steelmaking industries sacrificed on the altar of monetarism, by decisions made within the UK, by governments voted in by the electorate.
So we are in a weaker trading position than we were back then, and unlikely to be re-invigorated by the elixir of WTO. If, as according to Brexiteers, we cannot negotiate a decent settlement with an organisation we have been part of for the last 40 years, from what magic broom cupboard are all our great negotiators going to appear who can run rings round the WTO? David Davies? Grayling? Rees-Mogg? Boris Johnson? The WTO sharks will have a feeding frenzy.
Many a laugh we have enjoyed on this forum at the arrogance of the Old Firm, two clubs who claim they are held back by the SPL and should be free to cut a better deal where their fan base and brand name would see them flourish. As of present, astonishingly, no other league in the world has ever shown the slightest inclination to invite them in, or even join them in some new federation. We might all be about to feel that cold blast of reality if we cut off ties with the EU.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Thu 17 Jan 20:27
I can’t understand what good another referendum. “ A people’s vote “ will achieve.
What question would be on the ballot paper ? If it is a simple leave or remain like we had before, then it might likely end up with the same result. Even if the result was reversed and it was 52/48 remain would would still be in a situation where the country was split and the far right ERG , Farage, Boris, Moggs of this world would certainly stir up trouble.
A multi question on the ballot paper, hard, soft, some other kind of Brexit would be even more complicated for the electorate surely ? and not give a clear majority either.
I know SNP and others are advocating another referendum, SNP for obvious reasons but I can’t for the life of me see what it will achieve.
Apparently it takes a minimum of 22 weeks to legislate for this so if it does happen then Article 50 needs extending and the earliest we will get a result will be just before the summer recess then negotiations start all over again?
So for me it will be Mays deal or no deal. I am not holding my breath for her Plan B being radically different from her Plan A. We will see on Monday.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Thu 17 Jan 20:41
When you here the words ...for the peoples wishes, for the good of the people, for peoples future and their children's future from Tory lips you know they are lying....They do not give a toss about people Wake up UK Brexit is not for the people it is a huge power grab by the multimillionaire Tory Government to gain even more millions and Destroy the NHS, introduce Fracking, And the Biggest hidden agenda is to reclaim the devolved powers granted to Scotland WHY ? …because they simply cannot afford to lose Scotland …Did any one notice they sneaked a huge benefit cut through on Tuesday night under the cover of Brexit ?…. No ?? ….There has never been in my lifetime a more corrupt, greedy, arrogant, bunch of supercilious vermin... Blootered out the water by 230 votes... Why did she not resign ? ......just saying
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Topic Originator: Parsweep
Date: Thu 17 Jan 21:44
Watched Tony Blair being interviewed earlier tonight . What an odious individual he is .
As if things weren't going to be difficult enough , he's been over there encouraging the EU negotiators to make it even tougher . All to suit his own selfish agenda .
In another age he would be locked up or worse .
For what it's worth I voted leave and I'm even stronger for leave now .
Germany weeks away from recession , France having civil unrest every weekend and the way they treated Greece was shameful . The EU is hardly utopia .
Bobvo
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 17 Jan 21:56
Quote:
Parsweep, Thu 17 Jan 21:44
Watched Tony Blair being interviewed earlier tonight . What an odious individual he is .
As if things weren't going to be difficult enough , he's been over there encouraging the EU negotiators to make it even tougher . All to suit his own selfish agenda .
In another age he would be locked up or worse .
For what it's worth I voted leave and I'm even stronger for leave now .
Germany weeks away from recession , France having civil unrest every weekend and the way they treated Greece was shameful . The EU is hardly utopia .
I live in Germany and I can assure you there is no recession coming.
France have protests every second week for various reasons most of which I admire as they stick up for themselves
Greece were bailed out two times due to their own debts and working practices so they are not innocent.
You see living over here I can see the bigger picture rather than what the Daily Mail prints.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Parsweep
Date: Thu 17 Jan 22:08
The " Germany recession " story has cropped up on various media reports . I wasn't aware the daily mail had covered it , but I'll take your word for it that it has .
Bobvo
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 17 Jan 22:12
I listen to news every day here and nobody is talking about a recession.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Parsweep
Date: Fri 18 Jan 07:19
Thanks TOWK .
I don't know how to do those links .
I also read the Italian economy isn't exactly booming . The EU is not the bed of roses some would have us all believe .
Bobvo
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Fri 18 Jan 09:35
The Brexit problem is just obscuring a major problem in UK politics that might not be resolved for years.
There are seven real political groups (not pretend parties) with 10+ seats.
1) Centre-right Conservatives
2) Rees-Mogg-Swivel-eyed-loon Conservatives
3) Centre-left Labour
4) Corbyn-Swivel-eyed-loon Labour
5) SNP
6) Lib Dems
7) The Dinosaur Unbeliever Party
The only viable government among that lot would be a combination of 1 and 3 (perhaps requiring 5 and 6 to get a clear majority).
This can never happen because of 2 and 4 piggy-backing on the others to try to get into power.
The big two parties splitting in the coming years might be the only long term solution.
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Topic Originator: Captain Desmond Fancey
Date: Fri 18 Jan 11:52
"Captain, Norway isn't in the EU. Simple as that."
Well I'm glad I've got you there to point that out. I'd never have known otherwise...
Norway are still part of the Single Market, signed up to Schengen and make annual contributions to the EU coffers - although at around £400m it's a lot less than our own.
Signing up to this would amount to nothing more than a sorry halfway house and then everybody gets what nobody wanted. I'd find no deal far more palatable than this. As I'm sure many of those who voted to leave would too.
Much like Parsweep above I was firmly in the Leave camp 2 and a half years ago. Events since then have done nothing to convince me otherwise.
The good old days
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Fri 18 Jan 13:21
Now we see the cracks appearing.
"EU CIVIL WAR: Brussels freezes cash in 'rogue state' CRACKDOWN - Hungary furious
HUNGARY has hit out at the European Union over a controversial decision from Brussels to cut funds to member states who bloc chiefs say do not uphold the rule of law."
"Pound LIVE: GBP soars to TWO-MONTH HIGH against euro as traders eye THIS Brexit outcome
THE pound reached a two-month high against the euro today as Sterling continues to remain firm in the face of ongoing Brexit uncertainty."
"BREXIT LIVE: Brussels HOLDS BACK cash owed to Britain - EU PANIC on no-deal Brexit threat
EU CHIEFS are holding back cash owed to Britain and other current member states over fears Theresa May will stop pouring money into the bloc’s coffers in the event of a no-deal Brexit."
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Topic Originator: richie5401
Date: Fri 18 Jan 14:22
All the talking heads on June 23rd 2016 were saying it was a vote for a lifetime,an irreversible decision,the people will have their say.
Fast forward 2+ years the same bubble heads claiming the folks had no idea what they were doing and we must vote again.What fools they are.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 18 Jan 15:20
Quote:
Bertiesback, Fri 18 Jan 13:21
Now we see the cracks appearing.
"EU CIVIL WAR: Brussels freezes cash in 'rogue state' CRACKDOWN - Hungary furious
HUNGARY has hit out at the European Union over a controversial decision from Brussels to cut funds to member states who bloc chiefs say do not uphold the rule of law."
"Pound LIVE: GBP soars to TWO-MONTH HIGH against euro as traders eye THIS Brexit outcome
THE pound reached a two-month high against the euro today as Sterling continues to remain firm in the face of ongoing Brexit uncertainty."
"BREXIT LIVE: Brussels HOLDS BACK cash owed to Britain - EU PANIC on no-deal Brexit threat
EU CHIEFS are holding back cash owed to Britain and other current member states over fears Theresa May will stop pouring money into the bloc’s coffers in the event of a no-deal Brexit."
Without googling this all look like Daily Express headlines. The reason the pound increased was because the chance of no deal Brexit decreased in the markets eyes.
If you really want to see the pound rocket announce Brexit has been shelved.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Fri 18 Jan 15:47
Londonparsfan, yes they are. Which of them is inaccurate?
Frankly I find it difficult to find anything but anti UK stance, doom and gloom to the UK and the EU is unaffected sh-te in most of the daily papers. I like to get a broader spectrum view.
Look at AAPS saying he is not aware of any crisis in Germany over this. It appears to me the truth is being suppressed over there if that is indeed the case.
Are we to believe VW who has just forked out $25Billion dollars over the diesel fiasco won't be hammered by UK tariffs on their cars if we walk away. No doubt the Asian car makers are rubbing their hands in glee.
The facts are the EU is bricking it as I said above.
Your last statement may be right but the truth is, like with a lot of this stuff we don't know. I am just tired of the same Project Fear crap being dished out by the media every day.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Fri 18 Jan 15:48
Also the UK is still duty bound to pay a substantial amount of money to the EU even in the event of a no deal Brexit.
They can threaten to default as Farage has suggested, but that would not go down favourably with credit rating agencies or other countries that we will need to trade with in future, including the EU.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Fri 18 Jan 16:00
Hardly desperado, if that were the case the EU would already be in trouble as they have started to withhold money at present due to the UK. See my post above.
They are not obliged to pay the EU anything if they leave without a deal as the money was for "sweeteners" for concessions made (that's a laugh) made by the EU.
Now we are getting the reality.
"Britain crashing out of the EU without a deal would inflict significant economic pain across Europe, leaving the region without any winners, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
As the new Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab warned Europe to prepare for a no-deal exit, the IMF said such an outcome would hurt the UK most but would also have damaging economic consequences for Ireland and other EU nations."
"SALZBURG, Austria — Poland broke ranks with the rest of the EU27 at a crucial ministers meeting on Brexit strategy this week, suggesting that the bloc's negotiating guidelines may need to be rewritten in October if a Brexit deal is still out of reach.
The intervention, at the General Affairs Council meeting of ministers in Brussels Tuesday was the first open threat of a serious crack in EU unity since the start of withdrawal negotiations with Britain. Polish Minister for EU Affairs Konrad Szymański did not receive support from anyone else at the meeting, but even the hint of defection from the EU27's common position suggests that the bloc's so-far rock-solid unity will come under increasing strain as the talks enter their final weeks and days.
Three diplomats present at the GAC meeting said that Poland proposed amending the Council's guidelines, which provide tightly scripted marching orders for the bloc's negotiator, Michel Barnier, "if the need arises in October."
Note the wording of Hungary here.
"Hungary did not join in the call for more flexibility, but Viktor Orbán, the country's prime minister, declared at a separate summit in Salzburg, Austria, on Thursday that he was outside the "camp" of EU leaders who want to punish the U.K. over its decision to leave.
"I am very positive on Britain so I don’t like the approach to punish the British just because they decide to leave. It’s a great nation so we should have a fair approach ... we should like to have a fair Brexit," he said."
A German study.
"A so-called hard Brexit would cost German companies billions of euros, according to a new study.
German firms would have to pay more than three billion euros in customs duties in the case of a hard Brexit, and UK-EU trade could be halved, a report by the Cologne-based German Economic Institute (IW) says.
Although the bulk of the consequences will impact the profit of firms, consumers in Germany could face higher prices on products as companies react to the shake-up to trade in Europe.
It came as the German government on Thursday slashed its growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, blaming "a weaker international trade environment" for sapping the export powerhouse, AFP reports.
Gross domestic product should expand by 1.8 percent this year and next, the economy ministry said in a statement, lowering its outlook for 2018 by 0.5 percentage points and for 2019 by 0.3.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Fri 18 Jan 16:15
The Germans are not broadcasting this. Interesting reading from Germany. This cluster-ck has all been brought about, not by the countries involved as much as Brussel's determination to teach us a lesson and consequently warn any other countries contemplating leaving.
However ALL their tactics have been based on the premise that we would do anything to stay in to a certain degree.
I blame May for giving that impression and as I said months ago you don't send a retainer to these negotiations when we know she will just "bend over"
I put this stiffening of resolve now as I said; not down to the politicians but to the British People. They have seen what the EU was doing and said F--K YOU we will take a hit but so will you - some (Ireland) more than others.
The leaders of these countries are now saying "wait a minute how did it come to this? We were meant to punish the UK and come out smelling of roses, untouched - what the f-ck"
https://www.thelocal.de/20181011/horror-scenario-how-brexit-could-affect-germany
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Fri 18 Jan 16:33
AAPS maybe you should direct your German friends to this statement.
"Carmakers and other firms were expecting a 21-month transition period if Theresa May's deal with Brussels got through.
Instead they are now faced with a potential rupture in ten weeks that could have catastrophic consequences.
Dieter Kempf, head of the German Federation of Industry (BDI), said: 'A chaotic Brexit is now getting dangerously close to happening.
'Our companies are looking into the abyss."
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 18 Jan 19:28
Bertie, we can't hammer German car imports without also hammering Asian car imports. WTO rules forbid such actions.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 18 Jan 22:04
Germany is running scared of the UK in much the same way, as according to Willie Morgan, the West German and Dutch football teams sighed with relief when Scotland exited the World Cup in 1974.
I think Bertiesback is harbouring a delusion that whatever is bad for the UK is good for Scottish independence. Or 'England's difficulty is Scotland's opportunity' to paraphrase the IRA from 1939, before launching their feeble S Plan on the UK. They were credulous enough to believe that Hitler, in the event of victory, might give them a United Ireland. For me, Bertiesback posts contain that same sense of unreality. Fortunately for the UK and Eire, the political leaders in Dublin adopted a more neutral stance which benefited both countries over the years. The nationalist fanatics had to wait longer for their day, which has yet to come.
sammer
Post Edited (Fri 18 Jan 22:08)
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Fri 18 Jan 22:24
Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Fri 18 Jan 16:00
Hardly desperado, if that were the case the EU would already be in trouble as they have started to withhold money at present due to the UK. See my post above.
It was certainly mentioned by a panel member on question time last night that a payment will still be due even if there is a no deal. It was not contradicted by any other member. It was not Dianne Abbott.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Sat 19 Jan 15:31
What rubbish Sammer. I like your football contributions but you are way off the mark with that p-sh.
What a load of gobbledegook, Hitler, IRA, wtf have you been drinking?
Good to see that you didn't actually counter my points/links with any facts. The reality is your failure to recognise the nature of world.
Countries that have education, resources, a strong legal system, a moderate climate will never struggle. Scotland would find a level similar to similar EU countries or indeed NZ.
What really scares people is it will not happen immediately. They are unable to prove why it won't happen just that they don't want to risk what they have while the transition expires. "They would rather stand still till they are hit"
These same people don't realise that failure already happens to MANY in the UK. The standard of living of many is not what it could be or should be because the UK system is flawed, corrupt and favours the wealthy and the privileged.
TOWKs it is not the UK that would hammer the German car industry it would be the EU.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sat 19 Jan 23:20
Bertiesback,
I likewise enjoy your football contributions, and as a person living outside the UK did make an effort to have a proxy vote in favour of an independent Scotland a few years back. I would do the same tomorrow.
However I am not prepared to support the concept of ‘disaster nationalism’ for a couple of reasons. First of all most of Scottish trade is with England and an enfeebled England would not be good for an independent Scotland. It is not necessary for England to be weak so that Scotland can be strong; I have more faith in Scottish people than that. We can be strong on our own.
Secondly, there is no certainty that a chaotic Brexit, with Kent reduced to a lorry park, will actually increase the vote for Scottish independence. In fact there may be an opposite reaction, whereby Scots embody some kind of faux Dunkirk spirit and rally to the call of the millionaire, private plane owning, Euro pensioned, married to a foreigner, Farage.
I suspect that like you I want to see a Scotland I can be proud of for my six grandchildren, who all live in Fife. But I do not want them to have restricted access to Europe either, due to the fetishes of some aristocrats like Rees-Mogg who have pulled in temporary support from the de-industrialised heartlands. Cutting ourselves away from Europe will not enrich Scotland so far as I can see.
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Sun 20 Jan 08:27
If the UK brexits I don't think either the Scottish Parliament or Welsh Assembly will survive.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Sun 20 Jan 11:10
Sammer I have no feelings on England's success, I don't really care; if we are Independent then we need to treat England just like any other trading partner and neighbour.
I have never said Brexit would lead to chaos either, I said it would lead to reality. I have also said I did not necessarily want a NO Deal, I said we had to keep it on the table and use it if all else failed. Dropping No Deal only plays into the hands of the bullish members who run Brussels.
I also don't believe a No Deal ruins either side. I am a pragmatist on such things. I believe that there are people who don't want something and therefore invent reasons often risible both not to do it and to scare others.
I see challenges and people who are willing to rise to these challenges. Countries including ourselves are faced with things which cause us to re-think our strategies and alter goals in order to succeed all the time. Civil wars, tsunamis, volcanoes, earthquakes, financial crashes, depressions etc.
Mass redundancies happen even without these things. I was paid off twice in my lifetime. The miners, car workers steel workers etc were all paid off and most started again. Even now shop workers are being paid off in their hundreds, not because of some Brexit type occurrence but because this is a country run for profit and capitalism is king.
These were decisions made through policy and not necessarily by necessity or national/world events.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Sun 20 Jan 12:05
Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Sun 20 Jan 08:27
If the UK brexits I don't think either the Scottish Parliament or Welsh Assembly will survive.
I have read a few comments recently that the UK government will not only steal powers from Holyrood but they will go further and actually suspend the devolved governments under an emergency powers situation.
I can’t see it myself but I would like to see them try. If there was one thing that would galvanise the Scottish people then that would be it.
A minority government that Scotland never voted for dictating to us about what happens to our parliament that over 70% voted for twenty years ago and according to polls over 70% of us are in favour of regardless of which side of the independence debate you are on.......I think there would be serious civil disorder in Scotland if May and Fluffy tried that.
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Topic Originator: Bertiesback
Date: Mon 21 Jan 18:52
donj the post from Maria Calerno from that same article, is also interesting and sounds more knowledge based.
I sometimes wonder if the SG took a legal case to the International Court of Justice how they would fair after reading that.
The UK certainly has made a lot of apparent assumptions regarding "England's" power and entitlement to dictate to Scotland.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Mon 28 Jan 19:16
I see the Labour Party are planning to abstain on the immigration bill tonight.
Really? What is the point of them?
They are facilitating a Tory Brexit.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: donj
Date: Mon 28 Jan 19:19
Maybe Labour should change their name to Labour abstain.
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Mon 28 Jan 21:34
Labour are of no use whatsoever, they offer no opposition at all. They are the red tories
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Mon 28 Jan 23:24
76 Labour MP's failed to vote against the immigration bill tonight.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Tue 29 Jan 10:47
Labour really are a pathetic excuse for an opposition. Get the whole lot in the sea
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Tue 29 Jan 22:09
"Withdrawal agreement is and remains best & only way to ensure orderly withdrawal of UK from tEU. The backstop is part of the withdrawal agreement, and the withdrawal agreement is not open for re-negotiation."
-Donald Tusk on the real meaningless vote tonight.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Bandy
Date: Tue 29 Jan 22:19
Quote:
AdamAntsParsStripe, Mon 28 Jan 23:24
76 Labour MP's failed to vote against the immigration bill tonight.
They aren’t red tories at all. They are a party that’s totally divided (across many issues, not just Brexit). That means they are unable/unwilling to take any formal position on anything for fear of creating a chasm in the party as well as a chasm between the party and their stronghold constituencies - the abstentions arise from that quandary, not from secret support of the Tories.
Of course the net effect is the same, but calling them ‘red tories’ is miles away from being accurate.
Oops. Quoted wrong post - was aiming for Andrew 283.
Post Edited (Tue 29 Jan 22:20)
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Topic Originator: Malcolm Canmore
Date: Wed 30 Jan 18:54
Politicians and pundits reaching new lows in public esteem. If one is silly enough to believe what one reads, a no-deal Brexit will mean:
- skies empty of aircraft;
- SE ports gridlocked by artics;
- huge swathes of the population suffering or dying as a result of there being no medicines;
- City of London empty as all financial services companies move to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris etc.;
-the streets of Britain turned into a war zone, as the population revolt, complaining about...em something;
- UK population forced to live on a diet of oats and rapeseed oil as food imports all stop on 29 March.
My dog eats meat
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Topic Originator: donj
Date: Wed 30 Jan 20:21
We'll see what happens but I'm not booking flights after the end of March as I have no idea what will happen.
Unlucky as it was great grandad who was Irish or I'd already have applied for a passport.
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Wed 30 Jan 20:44
Quote:
Malcolm Canmore, Wed 30 Jan 18:54
Politicians and pundits reaching new lows in public esteem. If one is silly enough to believe what one reads, a no-deal Brexit will mean:
- skies empty of aircraft;
- SE ports gridlocked by artics;
- huge swathes of the population suffering or dying as a result of there being no medicines;
- City of London empty as all financial services companies move to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris etc.;
-the streets of Britain turned into a war zone, as the population revolt, complaining about...em something;
- UK population forced to live on a diet of oats and rapeseed oil as food imports all stop on 29 March.
I cannot comment on most of these issues. I can comment on the medicine problem as I work in the sector. The fact is there is already shortages in several medicines. Some of them vital. These include insulin, naproxen, epipens and several anti biotics. There are various other heart and cancer drugs which are also in danger.
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Wed 30 Jan 20:46
Quote:
moviescot, Wed 30 Jan 20:44
Quote:
Malcolm Canmore, Wed 30 Jan 18:54
Politicians and pundits reaching new lows in public esteem. If one is silly enough to believe what one reads, a no-deal Brexit will mean:
- skies empty of aircraft;
- SE ports gridlocked by artics;
- huge swathes of the population suffering or dying as a result of there being no medicines;
- City of London empty as all financial services companies move to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris etc.;
-the streets of Britain turned into a war zone, as the population revolt, complaining about...em something;
- UK population forced to live on a diet of oats and rapeseed oil as food imports all stop on 29 March.
I cannot comment on most of these issues. I can comment on the medicine problem as I work in the sector. The fact is there is already shortages in several medicines. Some of them vital. These include insulin, naproxen, epipens and several anti biotics. There are various other heart and cancer drugs which are also in danger.
Not to worry, they'll all be readily available once our politicians get their shares in...
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Wed 30 Jan 21:15
Quote:
Rastapari, Wed 30 Jan 20:46
Quote:
moviescot, Wed 30 Jan 20:44
Quote:
Malcolm Canmore, Wed 30 Jan 18:54
Politicians and pundits reaching new lows in public esteem. If one is silly enough to believe what one reads, a no-deal Brexit will mean:
- skies empty of aircraft;
- SE ports gridlocked by artics;
- huge swathes of the population suffering or dying as a result of there being no medicines;
- City of London empty as all financial services companies move to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris etc.;
-the streets of Britain turned into a war zone, as the population revolt, complaining about...em something;
- UK population forced to live on a diet of oats and rapeseed oil as food imports all stop on 29 March.
I cannot comment on most of these issues. I can comment on the medicine problem as I work in the sector. The fact is there is already shortages in several medicines. Some of them vital. These include insulin, naproxen, epipens and several anti biotics. There are various other heart and cancer drugs which are also in danger.
Not to worry, they'll all be readily available once our politicians get their shares in...
Sorry Rasta but that is an incorrect comment. Do you have any current experience to back that? It's a nice throw away comment unless you have first hand experience to back it up. Unfortunately I have.
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Topic Originator: donj
Date: Wed 30 Jan 22:20
Bloody wife made me let her hand my Naproxen(great if knee acts up very very occasionally) as 6 months out of date.
I got it,with back as well,so kept any left over as it solved the problem quick.
Bet these idiots,actually maybe that's promoting them a bit,in our mother of all parliaments wont worry about anything as it all collapses around them.
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Topic Originator: parbucks
Date: Wed 30 Jan 22:34
MC
You omitted a shortage of lettuce. Salad days will never be the same.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 31 Jan 17:40
Up to a dozen Labour MP's bribed to vote for May's next deal as she promises cash for votes to their constituencies.
Confirmed with excuses by red tory John Mann MP
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Thu 31 Jan 18:43
Quote:
moviescot, Wed 30 Jan 21:15
Quote:
Rastapari, Wed 30 Jan 20:46
Quote:
moviescot, Wed 30 Jan 20:44
Quote:
Malcolm Canmore, Wed 30 Jan 18:54
Politicians and pundits reaching new lows in public esteem. If one is silly enough to believe what one reads, a no-deal Brexit will mean:
- skies empty of aircraft;
- SE ports gridlocked by artics;
- huge swathes of the population suffering or dying as a result of there being no medicines;
- City of London empty as all financial services companies move to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris etc.;
-the streets of Britain turned into a war zone, as the population revolt, complaining about...em something;
- UK population forced to live on a diet of oats and rapeseed oil as food imports all stop on 29 March.
I cannot comment on most of these issues. I can comment on the medicine problem as I work in the sector. The fact is there is already shortages in several medicines. Some of them vital. These include insulin, naproxen, epipens and several anti biotics. There are various other heart and cancer drugs which are also in danger.
Not to worry, they'll all be readily available once our politicians get their shares in...
Sorry Rasta but that is an incorrect comment. Do you have any current experience to back that? It's a nice throw away comment unless you have first hand experience to back it up. Unfortunately I have.
I know they've been buying up plenty shares.
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Fri 1 Feb 08:30
Quote:
Rastapari, Thu 31 Jan 18:43
Quote:
moviescot, Wed 30 Jan 21:15
Quote:
Rastapari, Wed 30 Jan 20:46
Quote:
moviescot, Wed 30 Jan 20:44
Quote:
Malcolm Canmore, Wed 30 Jan 18:54
Politicians and pundits reaching new lows in public esteem. If one is silly enough to believe what one reads, a no-deal Brexit will mean:
- skies empty of aircraft;
- SE ports gridlocked by artics;
- huge swathes of the population suffering or dying as a result of there being no medicines;
- City of London empty as all financial services companies move to Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Paris etc.;
-the streets of Britain turned into a war zone, as the population revolt, complaining about...em something;
- UK population forced to live on a diet of oats and rapeseed oil as food imports all stop on 29 March.
I cannot comment on most of these issues. I can comment on the medicine problem as I work in the sector. The fact is there is already shortages in several medicines. Some of them vital. These include insulin, naproxen, epipens and several anti biotics. There are various other heart and cancer drugs which are also in danger.
Not to worry, they'll all be readily available once our politicians get their shares in...
Sorry Rasta but that is an incorrect comment. Do you have any current experience to back that? It's a nice throw away comment unless you have first hand experience to back it up. Unfortunately I have.
I know they've been buying up plenty shares.
Really. That doesn't produce the drugs though does it? Or get over the potential issues of getting them into the country. It could make the drugs so expensive that the NHS will not be able to afford them.
Please only comment if you actually understand the issues. You seem to be a jack of all subjects and a master of very few
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Fri 1 Feb 12:55
What shares have they been buying? I could do with getting some winners in my portfolio
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Fri 1 Feb 14:29
Quote:
red-star-par, Fri 1 Feb 12:55
What shares have they been buying? I could do with getting some winners in my portfolio
Medical supply and private health firms.
Disaster capitalism at it's finest.
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Topic Originator: calpar
Date: Sat 2 Feb 10:08
So moviescot, why then is there a shortage now?
If there is now, what has that to do with brexit, and why should there be an issue after if we still use same suppliers?
For example, epipens are globally scarce due to production levels i believe, nothing to do with brexit nor is it just uk affected, for example
Scaremongering, or just an excuse to be able to charge more after brexit ?
Bet NHS probs already pays more than other eu countries health services?
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 2 Feb 10:27
Medicines are subject to zero % tarrifs however medicines developed after 2010 will or can be subject to tarrifs of up to 6.5% due to the WTO failing to update their list of approved tarrif free medicines since the afore mentioned year.
We currently import 6 billion pounds worth more of medicines than we export to the EU. If the drug has been developed after 2010 it is going to cost more in the event of no deal.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Sat 2 Feb 13:42
Quote:
calpar, Sat 2 Feb 10:08
So moviescot, why then is there a shortage now?
If there is now, what has that to do with brexit, and why should there be an issue after if we still use same suppliers?
For example, epipens are globally scarce due to production levels i believe, nothing to do with brexit nor is it just uk affected, for example
Scaremongering, or just an excuse to be able to charge more after brexit ?
Bet NHS probs already pays more than other eu countries health services?
There are always medicine shortages.
These only tend to last short periods so the general public do not notice. We could all start noticing soon. Pharmacies are already having problems ordering.
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Topic Originator: calpar
Date: Sat 2 Feb 23:16
Hm wonder who profits, do you know?
You’ve hardly answered your own point ?
Tarrifs?
Who makes them up ?
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 2 Feb 23:44
WTO sets the tarrifs between states that don't have a trade deal.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: calpar
Date: Sun 3 Feb 09:35
Hm who makes up the wto?
You lot seem to accept an awful lot on face value, never ever bartered ?
Salesmans dream
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sun 3 Feb 09:42
Nations like China make up the WTO Calpar.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: calpar
Date: Sun 3 Feb 10:22
Who decides that ?
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sun 3 Feb 10:34
Nations like China and the other hundred odd nations that are part of the WTO.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: calpar
Date: Sun 3 Feb 10:46
Really?
Start your own ?
Why not, happens all the time, not that radical
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sun 3 Feb 12:45
Are you attempting to say why doesn't the UK start it's own World Trade Organisation?
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: calpar
Date: Sun 3 Feb 15:36
What ? Imagine trying to do yourown thing and bypassing something residing in Geneva, and created way back in 1995 by a few rebellious countries?
Oh wait, already been done, wonder who started that way back then?
Another useless hijacked club to keep the peple in check, why are they based in Geneva ?
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Fri 8 Feb 20:37
'Buried in a 19,800 word Spectator essay written by former online editor and Vote Leave director Dominic Cummings is an admission: The Brexit referendum was won by lying to the public.
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Topic Originator: Luxembourg Par
Date: Sat 9 Feb 20:15
<The Brexit referendum was won by lying to the public. >
And?
"The Scottish Independence referendum was won by lying to the public. "
"Every single General Election was won by lying to the public. "
Politician lie - what's your point caller?
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Sun 10 Feb 00:09
Quote:
Luxembourg Par, Sat 9 Feb 20:15
<The Brexit referendum was won by lying to the public. >
And?
"The Scottish Independence referendum was won by lying to the public. "
"Every single General Election was won by lying to the public. "
Politician lie - what's your point caller?
I'm with you there Lux. If anything the remain campaign was on a par with the Better together campaign prior to 2014.
Same scare stories I saw too often and I'm a remainer.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: DBP
Date: Sun 10 Feb 10:22
Quote:
I'm with you there Lux. If anything the remain campaign was on a par with the Better together campaign prior to 2014.
Same scare stories I saw too often and I'm a remainer.
I agree with you on that so the question had to be why, unlike in Scotland, were the English and Welsh not scared off by project fear?
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Sun 10 Feb 20:25
agree with you on that so the question had to be why, unlike in Scotland, were the English and Welsh not scared off by project fear?
Probably because the media were more evenly split on the issue while in Scotland during the Indy ref the media were clearly 95% against independence.
Control the media , control the people.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Sun 24 Feb 18:39
No meaningful vote until 12th March ?? Deary me what is this mad hoor playing at
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Sun 24 Feb 20:13
Quote:
Buspasspar, Sun 24 Feb 18:39
No meaningful vote until 12th March ?? Deary me what is this mad hoor playing at
Brinkmanship
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Sun 24 Feb 20:35
Aye sadly moviescot huge gamble tho could tear her own party apart
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Sun 24 Feb 20:45
Quote:-
Topic Originator: Luxembourg Par
Date: Sat 9 Feb 20:15
<The Brexit referendum was won by lying to the public. >
And?
"The Scottish Independence referendum was won by lying to the public. "
"Every single General Election was won by lying to the public. "
Politician lie - what's your point caller?
Just noticed this and had a wee chuckle I never called anyone Luxembourg Par and canny understand why you are being so obtuse
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
Post Edited (Mon 25 Feb 09:00)
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Topic Originator: Shakey
Date: Mon 25 Feb 00:07
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Mon 25 Feb 08:16
I honestly dont know how you find the time to listen to that stuff.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Tue 26 Feb 22:21
And so it continues :-
There never was going to be a no deal every one and his dog knew that
But T May has spent millions upon millions trying to scare the uk into accepting her deal or a no deal scenario
She tried to hide the legal implications of her deal by saying it was not in the peoples interest
She was held in contempt of parliament and had to reveal the facts that surprise surprise were very much in the peoples interest
10 defeats in Parliament one by a record majority in Parliaments existence
A driven deluded woman prepared to take the UK to the brink to fulfil her ambition and her hard hearted Tory millionaire's friend's cravings
Gaol the Hoor
Just saying
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