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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 8 Nov 22:58
There’s clearly some interest in commenting daily on the electoral campaign so I’ll open this thread with my own thoughts so far.
Boris Johnson is going for photo-ops with NHS nurses and factory workers, playing up his jovial image. A sound idea if you believe the Tories can eat into Labour’s brexit vote, but maybe he is overcooking this particular pudding to no great effect; many of those granted a brief audience with the PM are likely to say he is a nice enough bloke but I’ll not be voting Tory. Is Johnson actually a good campaigner? We are in the process of finding out but the signs so far are not good.
Jeremy Corbyn. Usually denied coverage in the MSM unless he falls off a stage but seems to be addressing big meetings, preaching to the converted. Maybe a sound enough tactic since he probably can’t win a Labour majority but if he can retain all his Labour seats Johnson is toast. He will then have seen off two Tory PMs without actually winning power himself. Unlike many MPs, Corbyn actually likes campaigning since he spent most of his political life doing so and swimming against the tide is his preferred position.
Jo Swinson. She has one clear policy which is to stop Brexit. In theory that should seduce a good few Labour voters to her cause but in practice given her pro-business, pro-fracking, pro-university fees stance few are likely to cross over. Claiming she might be the next PM made her sound more delusional than David Steel, and there is something of the preachy, schoolmistress about her that might irritate as the campaign proceeds. Maybe should concentrate on holding her own seat from the SNP.
Nicola Sturgeon. Not much need to campaign as Boris Johnson is doing that for her; the special dispensation for Northern Ireland was manna from heaven for the SNP. All she has to do is play safe and wait for the Tory seats she lost to Ruth Davidson last time fall back in her lap. If Johnson wins, she wins. If Corbyn wins, she gets a second referendum.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 8 Nov 23:58
While the snp will pick up a few of the Tory seats in the North East I suspect that they may also lose a few to the Lib Dems. North East Fife was won by the slimmest of majorities last time by the snp and it wouldn't surprise me if Ming Campbell's old stomping ground swung back to the Lib Dems.
Jeremy Corbyn is indeed a seasoned campaigner and he'll need to be on top form to convince the working classes to back him over the Tories who they believe can deliver the Brexit they yearn for. Corbyn's problem in that regard is he is from upper middle class stock. The man has never had a proper job in his life so to me when I hear him talk about the problems the man in street lives with it rings hollow.
As it stands right now I can still see Farage and the Tories striking a deal. However unlike when the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact of 80 years ago plunged Britain and especially Europe into a dark abyss a Farage-Johnson alliance will only be a disaster for Britain.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sat 9 Nov 13:18
I don’t think a Johnson-Farage alliance is very likely outside of a second referendum. Electorally such a pact could only lose the Conservatives votes, probably seats as well. Farage might be touted by right wing tabloids as the ‘real’ Tory the Conservatives need, but he will be a serious turn off for all those (rarely mentioned) Tory voters who voted Remain.
The Express and Mail are giving out confusing messages on this today. On the one hand they are claiming that the Labour Party vote is crumbling in northern seats as poor working people committed to Brexit abandon Corbyn in droves. There is a Tory myth that the working classes voted overwhelmingly for Brexit and prefer Tommy Robinson to Jeremy Corbyn. Robinson, who has been done for fraud and once ran a sun lounger business, presumably counts as having had a 'real' job.
Yet at the same time these newspapers are pleading for Farage, presumably the man who is draining off this alleged cohort of ex-Labour voters, to stand down in order not to split the Tory vote. Make sense of that if you can.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Sat 9 Nov 13:22
<<Nicola Sturgeon. Not much need to campaign as Boris Johnson is doing that for her; the special dispensation for Northern Ireland was manna from heaven for the SNP. All she has to do is play safe and wait for the Tory seats she lost to Ruth Davidson last time fall back in her lap. If Johnson wins, she wins. If Corbyn wins, she gets a second referendum.>>
It might be a long shot now, but I wouldn't rule out a Corbyn Labour/SNP coalition government. That would really set the cat among the pigeons!
:)
Post Edited (Sat 09 Nov 13:23)
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sat 9 Nov 14:32
Ozpar,
That’s not a new fear: remember David Cameron warned of ‘our’ country being ruled by an unrepresentative alliance of Marxists and Scottish zealots.
One Tory tabloid today has warned of a ‘shabby alliance’ of Labour and SNP. Where’s the DUP when you need them!
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Sat 9 Nov 14:36
Indeed...
:)
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Sat 9 Nov 15:23
I see that BJ has found TM's Magic Money Tree in the back cupboard.
I'm reminded of it because it did pop out quickly under TM, to find the billions to bribe the DUP to prop up her "Strong and Stable" government.
Last time round JC had a massive surge during the campaign and I see no reason to see this one as being different: the Tories' message doesn't resonate all that well with ordinary folk - not when it's actually examined.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Sat 9 Nov 16:30
2-1 Alloa. Very poor defending.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 9 Nov 17:41
Football Forum for that pihs Oz ;-)
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Thu 21 Nov 19:09
The Tory media have found it difficult to attack the Labour Party manifesto head on, preferring to claim the policies are economically unviable. This is quite a narrow line of attack since Johnson is touring the country and dressing up as a different worker each day, promising to throw money around to all and sundry.
The media problem is that these Labour proposals have identified a target that can unite its traditional base of middle and working classes who rely on earned income to make a living: namely the large corporations who avoid paying their fair share of tax and the wealthy who flourish by passing on inherited wealth. Corbyn is probably a wise enough old bird to know he is unlikely to win this upcoming election, but this manifesto is capable of consolidating the Labour vote amongst its traditional base of waged workers and public professionals. If he can do this, then Johnson will be denied outright victory and the media will turn on him as a failure.
Expect articles over the following days along these lines:
‘‘Fred, a 66 year old life-long Labour supporter, feels he has been abandoned by Corbyn’s Marxist manifesto which he describes as ‘the longest suicide note in history.’ As a skilled carpenter who works on a flexible contract for a company which builds luxury yachts, he fears the politics of envy will make him redundant, forcing him into early retirement when he still needs to work and help fund his granddaughter through private school and university. Being the landlord of a small family property which he rents out to help make ends meet, Fred worries he is about to become the target of a Corbynista pogrom aimed at funding its lavish, gold-plated council house building programme. ‘It pains me to say this’ he remarked, ‘but Boris- for all his faults- is the man to pull this country together. He gets things done.’’
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Tue 26 Nov 01:50
You would normally expect the furore over Prince Andrew to be bad news for the Tory Party, especially since Boris Johnson's own love life is a chequered one by all accounts. But Johnson plays the part of the raffish intellectual and does not identify with traditional establishment symbols like army, church, police so it may have little impact electorally.
The case of Dominic Raab is more of a problem since his failure to deal with the death of UK citizen killed by an American 'diplomat' is not going away. Given that the family affected have made it clear they are not after revenge or a prison sentence for the car driver, Raab's failure to find a suitable arrangement is a definite sign of weakness. It has the potential to seep into the public consciousness as life after Brexit meaning we kow-tow to the USA.
It seems the Labour Party manifesto has been well received outwith the banking sector and it should help to underpin the Labour vote. The Tory manifesto is amazingly anodyne but presumably they opted for a safe policy in the belief that they are ahead in the polls. However being ahead in the polls does not always translate into seats. As I suspected would happen, the more Jo Swinson appears in public the less attractive the Lib Dems become. I think their vote will be squeezed in the next few weeks as the voters decide between the two major parties, with the SNP having a pretty clear run up here.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Tue 26 Nov 12:23
Should we be surprised?
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Tue 26 Nov 13:01
There is no level they will not stoop to to try and win this election The Tories have managed to assemble the most devious, heinous bunch of low life from Boris downwards
I hope they get well and truly routed on the 12th
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Tue 26 Nov 17:01
This type of ruse is a daily event and becoming rather tedious. The MSM seem to be falling over ex-Labour voters who have switched to Johnson yet the latest poll (for what it is worth) reported that 80% of those asked supported the Labour Party proposal on higher taxation. Astonishingly (as if) not one person has been quoted in the Express or the Mail who holds this opinion. Nor have they been able to find a single ex-Conservative voter who supports Remain and will not vote for Johnson.
These papers are already writing the story of how Jeremy Corbyn was ridiculed, humiliated, skewered, exposed, stunned, silenced and torn apart by Andrew Neil, although the interview is still a few hours away. You can sense the nervousness when you read these rags online for Johnson has gone for broke with this election and cannot afford not to win it with a majority. The status quo is not good enough since he has ditched the DUP and the Lib Dems are still recovering from their last coalition. All that bluster about Farage winning seats and insurrection on the streets if Brexit is not ‘delivered’ has long evaporated as they are confronted with reality. The Labour manifesto is popular. There is a whole swathe of young new voters the Tories have scarcely bothered about. Johnson is not that good in public. Brexit might be unravelling before their eyes.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Tue 26 Nov 18:07
The Tories have a smaller lead now than they did at this stage in 2015 and it's really not looking like they're going to attract the swing vote.
Can't see Labour being the biggest party but I can definitely see the Tories ending up facing the prospect of another minority government. If they can get the crossbench support for it.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Tue 26 Nov 18:22
Seemingly been a surge in young voters registering, that's not good for the Tories.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Tue 26 Nov 18:52
Great news LA closes at 11.59 tonight .....lets hope the surge continues
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Tue 26 Nov 22:21
Remember the dark days of the 70s that Corbyn wants to bring back? It got so bad in 1977 that Terry Scott, possibly the greatest sitcom comedian who ever lived in Watford, threatened he would leave the UK to avoid the Marxism of…..Jim Callaghan. Yes. It was that bad. Scott, who later flourished under Thatcherism in his hilarious ‘Terry and June’ sitcom fortunately did not carry out his threat but he did say at the time that his comedic routine of schoolboy in short trousers lisping about chocolate bars and women’s tits was being undermined by left wing culture. What we would now call PC wokeness. He planned to emigrate to somewhere more free; South Africa as it happened although he seemed unaware that it was Afrikaners rather than English who were running the show. Lynsey de Paul, she of the beautiful face and beauty spot but limited musical talent threatened the same. These were hard times.
Now we have Maureen Lipman, that household name, attacking Jeremy Corbyn, on the basis she no longer feels safe in the UK as a Jewish woman. Having been in her home town of Hull this summer, I am sure she would have relished the non Marxist shrieking hordes of hen parties who passed me in a supermarket trolley. I think the town shut at 7pm bar the three hen party/ stag party boozers. There were no cafes or restaurants; just police on mobiles, cruising drug dealers and edgy citizens. Smell the freedom I suppose. Consumer feminism; macho tattooism; what more could a citizen want Maureen, you London luvvie? It’s called idiocrocy.
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Wed 27 Nov 20:13
Sammer, I have never been to Hull but I’m sure I would find more than three pubs and at least one restaurant open at 1900 without too much trouble.
And I must say either their supermarket trolleys must be awfy big or the hens awfy wee...
Post Edited (Wed 27 Nov 20:24)
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Wed 27 Nov 20:22
Mario latching on to the important matters again I see
Not like a Tory to attempt to avoid scrutiny is it?
Or is it.....?
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Wed 27 Nov 20:29
Hopefully the organ grinder will will appear, away and play with your monkey nuts.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Wed 27 Nov 20:33
Mario is the organ grinder called will or have you developed a stutter ?... :-)
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Wed 27 Nov 20:43
Will Sammer it is...
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Wed 27 Nov 20:55
Ah the monkey nuts Mario .. we had a veg van come round once a week and he sold monkey nuts by the ounce ..... I spent my 9d and got a big bag .... my Dad looked in the bag and saw a stone weighing around 4 ounces The next week he dragged the veg guy from his van and made him refund me my 9d ...I never had the heart to tell My Dad that it was me who took the stone from Duke the dug and put it in the bag ..... Never voted Tory since :-)
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Wed 27 Nov 21:16
The monkey nuts I was referring to are usually two to a bag. If there was a was stone in there as well the organ grinder would have a very unhappy monkey on his hands.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Wed 27 Nov 21:16
I remember back in the good old days how my dad would come home pished with no wages on a Friday night and batter my mum black and blue. You don't seem to get that so much these days, PC spoils everything.
I can almost smell the nostgia. In case you were wondering: it smells of rum and fear.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: donj
Date: Wed 27 Nov 22:07
I watched guys in Glenrothes playing shoot pontoon on a Friday night with these brown wage packets.Some going out with empty ones.Bit of a different world now really.
When I got married we set up a joint account and have always shared as equal as I feel that is part of marriage.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Wed 27 Nov 22:22
I wonder what Mario's milkman thought about making the poor wee woman worry about money? If you were a proper husband you'd give her just enough to get you and the kids' teas for the week.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Wed 27 Nov 23:48
What is going on in this thread?!?!
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Wed 27 Nov 23:58
Just a wee bit nostalgia towk.
Did you never lose your wee broon envelope on an epic Friday night?
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Thu 28 Nov 07:26
Quote:
Mario, Wed 27 Nov 20:29
Hopefully the organ grinder will will appear, away and play with your monkey nuts.
Already used that one Auld Yin
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Thu 28 Nov 07:39
Even Ken Dodd reused old material..
Post Edited (Thu 28 Nov 07:46)
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 28 Nov 18:57
Apparently Gove and Johnson's dad turned up at Channel 4 tonight asking to take part in the leaders' debate on climate change which BJ has shirked. They were told it was only leaders who were eligible to take part and sent packing.
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Thu 28 Nov 20:38
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Topic Originator: Superally
Date: Thu 28 Nov 21:18
BJ replaced with a block of ice I heard
2009/10, 2010/11, 2013/14, 2015/16 dafc.net Prediction League Champion
It's a well known medical fact that some men were born two drams below par.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 28 Nov 21:56
The ice was 'oven ready' at the start but melted away in time.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Thu 28 Nov 22:27
“These two ice sculptures represent the emergency on planet earth, not in any human form but are a visual metaphor for the Conservative & Brexit parties after their leaders declined our repeated invitations to attend tonight’s vital climate debate.”
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sat 30 Nov 13:48
The BBC has done a U-turn on its decision to turn off Boris Johnson’s microphone in light of the killings yesterday in the London Bridge area. The PM is to appear tomorrow on the Andrew Marr programme to discuss the seriousness of the situation. We can expect plenty of platitudes along the lines of stiffer sentences for violent criminals, although one of the ‘have a go’ heroes yesterday was a convicted murderer out on day release, a man who some years ago cut the throat of a woman with learning difficulties for no apparent reason. So, an unusual kind of hero then, but maybe an argument in favour of the rehabilitation which Johnson seems to think futile.
Maybe Johnson will try to make a distinction between ‘ordinary’ murderers and political murderers, since so far as I can gather there have been around 170 knife murders in London this year and yet yesterday was the first time he has shown up at the scene with his Home Secretary. (One paper has called the public-spirited citizens ‘Priti’s People.' Maybe ‘Khan’s Crew’ did not sound as effective.) Would the BBC have revoked their temporary ban if two London teenagers had been stabbed to death? I rather doubt it. Some killings seem to be worth more than others.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 30 Nov 13:58
Let's face it neither the attacker nor the 'have a go hero' should have been at the event they were both attending in the first place. The gravity of the crimes they had previously been convicted of should have meant they were still locked up in prison. Just my opinion of course.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Sat 30 Nov 23:00
That doesn't work though towk.
Not my opinion: that's the conclusion of over 100 years observation: societies with lower sentencing where reform is the goal have lower crime rates and lower recidivism rates than those with longer sentencing and punishment as the goal.
Compare the USA with any Nordic country if you don't believe me.
Although I suppose that if you got to Saudi Arabia levels of punishment sentencing you might see a "drop off"
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 30 Nov 23:31
I just feel that for crimes that they committed, such as slitting a young woman's throat, that the sentence should be longer. Even in the Nordic counties they dish out some hefty sentences. Far right scumbag Anders Breivik will be eligible for release in 14 years but I suspect the parole board will find reasons to keep him locked up for the rest of his natural. Meanwhile in this country our own far right scumbag, Scotland's Thomas Mair, who evilly slaughtered poor Jo Cox won't get a chance for rehabilitation. Pleasingly he won't ever be allowed out. Anyway I digress, for violent crimes I think stiffer sentences should be applied. Again, that's just my opinion.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Sat 30 Nov 23:46
Of course people who are still a direct threat to the public should not be released - that's not up for question.
The question is: with what attitude do you set up and run if you want to achieve that? One where you simply lock the bad folk out the way? Or one where the bad folk learn to behave and contribute to society in a meaningful way?
Brevik isn't looking like "learning to behave" which is one of the prerequisites for being considered not bad any more, even in Norway.
There are even examples of serial killers who have been released and gone on to live normal lives (or at least to keep away from criminality) - including Mary Bell.
Why keep people in prison longer than necessary? What if holding folk in harsh prison conditions for years is actually damaging for society? What happens to the families of folk when they go to prison for life?
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sat 30 Nov 23:48
TOWK,
I can see your argument clearly enough, but the murderer from London Bridge yesterday had never attacked anyone before. He was sentenced for intent, not for what he had done. This apparently was part of his grievance. He was given, initially, an indeterminate sentence, a feature of Nazi justice from the 1930s it is quite fair to say, which would have been equal to any sentence he received had he actually carried out the plans he was allegedly hatching.
There has to be some sense of proportion in sentencing, however arbitrary it maybe, otherwise the system is open to ridicule. I have no idea how to control those who are intent on violently attacking fellow citizens other than the Stormont system of locking up suspects, but that proved to be counter productive.
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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Sun 1 Dec 20:04
How deplorable of the PM to blame the London Bridge murders on "a leftie government " whom he holds responsible for Khan's early release from prison, claiming this could not have happened if he hadn't been released.
Other than no prizes for stating the bleeding obvious, how can anyone know how Khan would have acted on his release had he served a longer sentence. Same crime but different victims on a different day a not unlikely scenario.
Not your average Sunday League player.
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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Mon 2 Dec 07:27
I see both the Tories and Labour are now turning this latest London tragedy into a political, points scoring, blame game. How absolutely crass and insensitive.
And if that wasn't bad enough, we have that complete @r$eh0le, Farage, telling us that some of ''these people have a Jihadist virus'' and should NEVER be released from prison.
Do today's politicians have no shame? Good on the parents of the murdered young man and woman for speaking out at these cynical, divisive comments.
As I understand it, a total of 74 detainees have been released early. None of the others have been randomly stabbing members of the public. The fact that this crazed killer was released early, is probably irrelevant. His state of mind is far more likely to have been a determining factor.
Not your average Sunday League player.
Post Edited (Mon 02 Dec 07:34)
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Mon 2 Dec 08:30
Apparently GG the procedure before any release of these prisoners has to go before the Parole Board
But in this case they were never notified of his release
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 2 Dec 12:48
Yes, that's what I understand: he should have been vetted by the Parole Board before being released.
So why wasn't he? Maybe that is the question our politicians should be asking. Was it an oversight? Or was Khan considered useful to the security services?
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Mon 2 Dec 13:31
This from todays election news Sammer
Chris Philp, justice minister and Conservative candidate for Croydon South, defends the political arguments made by his party, blaming the attacker's release on legislation implemented by the last Labour government.
"It’s pointing out that when the sentence was handed down to Usman Khan in 2012, that happened under a policy enacted by the previous Labour government in 2008," he says.
He adds that "the parole board would have looked at his case” under changes implemented by the Conservative government.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 2 Dec 13:39
There's a very detailed article in today's I newspaper which looks at the legal background to Khan's case. The legal contributor feels that there would not have been a requirement for the Parole Board to vet Khan under present arrangements.
The article is pretty scathing about political parties in general, explaining that they cannot afford to bang prisoners up for life despite their promises to be tough on crime. Johnson is singled out as a hypocrite who said nothing about sentencing in his manifesto but has now discovered a long held view that 'something' should be done, despite his Party being in power for around a decade.
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