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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Wed 27 Nov 23:56
It's yougov poll I think (who I believe were the only polling company to get it right last time) are predicting a hefty Tory majority of 60 odd sheets. Tory gains in Scotland as well and Labour not to win a single new seat anywhere in the UK. Brexit Party only getting 3% of the vote.
If that is accurate I can't say I'm surprised but I'd be disappointed.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Thu 28 Nov 06:05
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Thu 28 Nov 06:49
The combined pro Indy party vote will be dwarfed by the combined pro Union party vote, same as last time. Nicola will huff and puff and sit back down.
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Thu 28 Nov 07:35
As long as we rid Scotland of labour,
Would be happy to see Ian Murray, Stephen Kerr and Jo Swinson lose their seats.
Slowly slowly catch a monkey
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Thu 28 Nov 07:48
By his nuts?
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Thu 28 Nov 08:16
I don't think you can trust the polls to be accurate, but they rarely get it completely wrong. They could change in the next two weeks, but that would need something big from either side.
All polls over the last few weeks predict a Tory majority of between 20 and 200 seats. Brexit will happen quickly, then the negotiations for the rest will go on for at least 10 years. Indyref2 won't happen because Johnson will have nothing to gain from it.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Thu 28 Nov 08:24
Bloody Hell 5 years of Boris .... Wheres ma Stanley Knife
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Thu 28 Nov 08:32
If you play your cards wrong, you might even get 10 years.
I predict that his 2024 campaign slogan will be "Get Brexit Done!"
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Thu 28 Nov 08:32
That’s a lethal weapon in the hands of old codgers. Put in the skip while you’ve still got a full set of digits to do so.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 28 Nov 08:37
''The combined pro Indy party vote will be dwarfed by the combined pro Union party vote, same as last time. Nicola will huff and puff and sit back down.''
Aren't there only 59 Scottish seats at Westminster? If I remember my O grade arithmetic correctly, 30 seats will give a majority.
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Thu 28 Nov 09:13
The pro Indy party will get most of the seats.
The pro Union vote combined will be bigger, but split between them.
In a referendum the pro Union vote will not be split.
Nicola knows this.
Post Edited (Thu 28 Nov 09:14)
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Thu 28 Nov 09:18
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Thu 28 Nov 10:28
Quote:
Mario, Thu 28 Nov 09:13
The pro Indy party will get most of the seats.
The pro Union vote combined will be bigger, but split between them.
In a referendum the pro Union vote will not be split.
Nicola knows this.
This may well be the first substantive point I've noticed our Mario make on this forum.
I also agree - the Indy vote won't be held fptp. Because fptp is undemocratic and threatens to give a bunch of shysters a majority in Westminster on 40% of the vote.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: AdamAntsParsStripe
Date: Thu 28 Nov 10:51
This poll should be taken more seriously than others as it was a ten day survey with 100000 people from most or all constituencies rather than a snapshot of the more usual 1000 people.
The same method was derided in 2017 as it predicted a hung parliament.
Turned out they were on the money with their prediction just out by a handful of seats.
I believe they will do another just before the election which should give a more exact prediction as there are so many marginal seats that can still change hands.
As to Mario stating the combined unionist vote is larger in Scotland, that makes no sense given nearly all polls over the last year are consistently saying there is no more than 2 points between yes and no so on top off the predicted 40%-43% to the SNP, there are people in the other parties who are pro independence clearly but not SNP voters.
Zwei Pints Bier und ein Päckchen Chips bitte
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Thu 28 Nov 11:09
Polls are consistently showing the SNP vote sitting around 40% and likely to go higher. 40-60 can hardly be used as a basis to describe the SNP vote as being "dwarfed"! 😂 Particularly daft too when there are Yes voters in the other parties, namely Labour and the Lib Dems. Your grievance politics are getting old Mario and its particularly telling that you want to enable the Tories to demolish the UK Social Policynrather than secure a progressive constitution in an Independent Scotland.
Post Edited (Thu 28 Nov 11:12)
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Thu 28 Nov 12:34
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Thu 28 Nov 12:51
If the SNP get 60% of the vote in the upcoming GE I’ll march down the High Street waving a Saltire and wearing nothing but Saltire undercrackers and face paint.
Better lock up the peacocks first though, the pants aren’t peck proof
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Thu 28 Nov 13:15
Never been asked by an opinion poll in the 68years I've been alive.
Anyone on here?
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Thu 28 Nov 15:20
Never.
In fact I signed up to the YouGov site to earn some extra cash and they closed my account after two weeks with no explanation or avenue to seek any. I was 100% honest in my responses.
I'm not the only one either - a few of my lefty mates have experienced the same thing so it seems that they close certain accounts depending on the answers received, which seems to go against what they are seeking to achieve.
Also, they owe me £1.25 :D
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Thu 28 Nov 15:49
And just who are these 100 people in Pointless? The old dodders in the studio audience? No wonder the photo of a 1950’s skiffle group gets a high score.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Thu 28 Nov 15:56
Is it not just the same folk from Family Fortunes? I think Pointless bought them as a job lot and keeps them in Alexander Armstrong's duck house.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Thu 28 Nov 16:27
I have been polled twice in last 10 years. IPSOS Mori by telephone.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Thu 28 Nov 22:18
The ipsos mori poll also showed support for Independence at 50% .....excluding 16/17 year olds and excluding EU citizens, which probably means that support for Indy is at 55%.
UK Gov conducted their own poll on this very subject around 6 months ago and refused to reveal the result despite a foi request from Tommy Shepherd.
Neither wonder they refused to release the result as rumour has it it was 58% in favour.
You can bet your bottom dollar if the result was in favour of the Union it would have been released the next day.
They are worried alright.
SNP will win the election in Scotland and will gain seats.
6 months of a Bojo Tory Government at WM will put another 5% on the pro Indy vote then it really will be game over, keeping in mind that whatever Yes is sitting at when we go again another 5% will be gained during the campaign.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Thu 28 Nov 22:34
I hope that Indy2 is decisive either way - all these slim margins are exhausting and divisive.
I'd love an at least 60-40 split - preferably in my preferred direction obviously but I'd honestly rather a resounding defeat than a narrow victory. Narrow victories are hollow in this sort of thing, for either side. I'd rather lose resoundingly and move on with the new reality.
Although if, by some miracle, we get a Labour government in Westminster, I might be tempted to abstain by writing "Yes, but not yet" on my paper.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Fri 29 Nov 07:58
At least 60% of the total electorate, that is everyone of voting age, would be required to make it even remotely decisive.
The Yes vote was less than 40% in 2014 based on that criteria. The No vote was of course under 50%, but those not up for changing the status quo can just sit in house like 25% of so called “Yes City” did..
And never mind the mythical poll (no leaks?) what happened to the great listening exercise conducted by the SNP? I participated in that, did anyone else? Was there any feedback or did Nicola not like what she was being telt?
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Fri 29 Nov 08:12
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Fri 29 Nov 10:52
Quote:
Mario, Fri 29 Nov 07:58
At least 60% of the total electorate, that is everyone of voting age, would be required to make it even remotely decisive.
The Yes vote was less than 40% in 2014 based on that criteria. The No vote was of course under 50%, but those not up for changing the status quo can just sit in house like 25% of so called “Yes City” did..
And never mind the mythical poll (no leaks?) what happened to the great listening exercise conducted by the SNP? I participated in that, did anyone else? Was there any feedback or did Nicola not like what she was being telt?
That's funny Mario. I also participated in that with lots of critical responses from me. I was contacted twice following my feedback to discuss my concerns.
Maybe it's the way you tell it that counts.
Post Edited (Fri 29 Nov 10:52)
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Fri 29 Nov 13:14
Well I did tell them to shove it up their collective kilt right enough..
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Fri 29 Nov 14:28
The results were never published, wonder why.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Fri 29 Nov 14:46
Date: Fri 29 Nov 07:58
At least 60% of the total electorate, that is everyone of voting age, would be required to make it even remotely decisive.
Really? All I have heard since 2014 is that 55% was decisive. That’s 55% of those who voted.
If it was ok then it is ok now.
The polls are neck and neck.
The Yes vote went up in 2014 during the campaign and it will go up again.
55% should be doable. It will be decisive.
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Fri 29 Nov 15:04
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 29 Nov 16:08
...and old farts die off. It's a double whammy.😊😊😊
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 29 Nov 16:38
Would that really change anything? We have an aging population in Scotland so the number of older people is increasing whilst number of young reduces. So if there's some age that you suddenly stop being a nationalist then that group will be rising rather than falling...
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 29 Nov 16:54
I think the theory is that older people are more attached to the Union, having experienced the war and the post-war years, nationalised industries etc. It's unlikely that generation will be replaced en masse with a new generation. People do tend to get more conservative as they get older and are suspicious of change but I doubt there would be a large-scale switch of voters from Nats to unionists just because they got older.
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Fri 29 Nov 18:01
I'd extend your point Wee Eck and say that a lot of it is down to the fact that until fairly recently - i.e. 2007 when the SNP entered Government - that independence has never been regarded as a genuine possibility. Yes, the argument was around at the time of the oil boom in the 70s but it never had the same prominence that it has today. Had a Scottish assembly been created in 1979, then this may well have changed sooner.
I remember at school not being taught about Scottish history really - it was all about the growth of democracy in Britain when I was at school in the late 90s/2000s - and this has also changed since the SNP has come in from what I gather because Labour and Lib Dem were terrified that a knowledge of Scottish history pre-union would "corrupt" the youth. So there are a few cultural aspects to be considered here as well.
I'd say that another is that more and more Scots are living, working and studying abroad - particularly in Europe - and this exposes them to different political/social systems and makes them critical of the Scottish/UK political system in a way that previous generations might not have been.
New generations of Scots are growing up where Independence is seen as a mainstream political goal and where Holyrood is taking an ever-greater level of responsibility for the day to day lives of people. It's only going one way now.
In truth, the generational divide in Scotland is really pretty damaging because there seems to be strong consensus in Scotland in terms of a Social/Liberal Democratic political agenda which is supported by 80%+ of the population. Personally, I wish the "auld guard" would come to the realisation that their social values could be best guaranteed in a written constitution of an Independent Scotland.
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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Sat 30 Nov 10:00
Quote:
Mario, Fri 29 Nov 07:58
At least 60% of the total electorate, that is everyone of voting age, would be required to make it even remotely decisive.
The Yes vote was less than 40% in 2014 based on that criteria. The No vote was of course under 50%, but those not up for changing the status quo can just sit in house like 25% of so called “Yes City” did..
And never mind the mythical poll (no leaks?) what happened to the great listening exercise conducted by the SNP? I participated in that, did anyone else? Was there any feedback or did Nicola not like what she was being telt?
I detect a bit of hypocrisy here. 50% + 1 of the 74% who voted in the Brexit Referendum was considered good enough but for Scottish Independence you're proposing 60% of the electorate?
37.5% of the electorate voted Leave in 2016. Just saying.....
Not your average Sunday League player.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 30 Nov 10:31
I don't think Mario is saying that 60% is required but it could only be deemed to be a decisive if 60% of the share was one way or the other. The only numbers we can use are those from people who actually bothered to vote. The 37.5% of those who voted to leave is still higher than the percentage of those who voted to remain. I voted to remain but the irrevocable fact that I can't bend around my principles is that the side I supported lost the vote and I just can't ignore that.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Mario
Date: Sat 30 Nov 10:47
“And old farts die off” ...check out the pics of the last SNP conference. A sea of grey haired wrinklies!
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Sat 30 Nov 11:03
The SNP old farts will be replaced by young farts of a similar persuasion though.
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Sat 30 Nov 11:12
Wee dilemma out here in Central Fife with the SNP candidate shooting himself in the foot.
Has been stated that if SNP win and his suspension stands, he will go to Westminster as an Independent!
Big vote splitter, with Labour probably getting a clear run.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 30 Nov 11:32
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath not Central Fife.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Sun 1 Dec 13:03
Labour gaining rapid momentum apparently
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Sun 1 Dec 15:44
Labour welcomes scrutiny, it tends to sway the undecided. They're obviously concentrating on holding steady though, and I think that's a wise move: people's motivations are all over the place right now and that's tough for a consensus party like Labour.
A leadership and personality driven party like the Conservatives now or New Labour back in the day can weaponise that division with certainty and turn it into votes. Corbyn doesn't want to do that so he's seen as indecisive.
Some folk say that's the problem with JC: he's too busy trying to please everyone and needs to lead in a crisis. Possibly true. It's definitely a valid criticism of him imo.
The enemy travels by private jet, not by dinghy.
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Sun 1 Dec 15:55
Hmmmmm. It's starting to get a bit interesting. It looks like there has been a bit of movement for Labour in the polls in the last few days but not for the Tories.
It's still a long shot, but if the trend continues until election day we might end up with a weird scenario where the Tories are the largest party but they need the support of the DUP to get them over the line. Fun times ahead!
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Sun 1 Dec 16:44
Another 1.5 billion to the DUP ............aaaaaaaaaargh ??
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Mon 2 Dec 13:47
How many of the DUP will get re-elected?
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Mon 2 Dec 16:13
They are predicted to lose a couple at the moment. 8 might still be enough to get what they want from Johnson. I suppose we don't have long to wait now!
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 2 Dec 20:48
The Daily Mail is starting to carry articles negative about Johnson. They have never been his biggest cheerleader but support the Conservative Party obviously. It is a harbinger of what will happen if Johnson's gamble does not come off and he is short of a majority, as even the Daily Express is now admitting is a possibility. He will be crucified in a more brutal way than any left leaning commentator could ever devise. He will be jettisoned as a blabbing dilettante, a man who rejected family and business values, was a racist, a snob and who was never fit to run the country; an adventurer who hijacked Brexit.
If he gets his majority he will be the next Winston Churchill. He knows all this and more but has been looking a bit 'peeky' the last two days.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Mon 2 Dec 22:36
Sammer he has been hiding in the last two days
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