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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Tue 18 Mar 05:22
War appears imminent. Reports indicate that U.S. forces have sunk an Iranian intelligence vessel, the Zagros, in the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Israel has resumed bombing Gaza, allegedly targeting Hamas, but the strikes have claimed the lives of 250 civilians, many of them women and children.
A similar situation is unfolding in Yemen, where U.S. forces have attacked the Houthis in Hodeida, resulting in multiple civilian casualties. In response, the Houthis have launched retaliatory strikes on U.S. naval vessels in the region.
Amid rising tensions, reports suggest three U.S. aircraft carriers are en route to Iran. Yet, as Washington and Tel Aviv escalate their military actions, they may underestimate Tehran’s response capacity. Iran has recently strengthened its strategic ties with Moscow and Beijing, deepening military and economic cooperation. Any large-scale conflict could risk drawing in these global powers, turning a regional crisis into something more dangerous.
Beyond the military implications, the economic fallout could be catastrophic. Iran has repeatedly warned that, in the event of war, it could destroy U.S. military bases in the region, as well as oil and gas facilities in neighbouring nations, and block the Strait of Hormuz—the world`s most vital oil and gas chokepoint—through which nearly a third of global seaborne oil trade flows. A disruption of this magnitude would send energy prices skyrocketing, destabilise financial markets, and plunge economies into crisis. International trade, already fragile, could face further chaos if access to the Gulf is cut off.
With tensions escalating rapidly, the world may be on the brink of a conflict with consequences far beyond the Middle East.
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Tue 18 Mar 05:51
Anyone that thought Trump returning to the White House would bring peace and prosperity to the US and the world are absolute mugs. And with Elon pulling the strings it will only get worse. Not surprising that Benjamin the war criminal has began bombing Gaza again either.
I just hope that when it does come about, that the first ones called up within the UK are the patriots to the nation, the ones that proudly fly the British flag, bend the knee to the king and vote for the likes of throwing immigrants from the country.
I will certainly not be storming off to fight in a war for a King I will never sweat allegiance to.
Post Edited (Tue 18 Mar 05:52)
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Tue 18 Mar 07:06
Won`t happen. Trump will have a word. He`s got the best negotiation skills. The greatest. Possibly the finest in the world.
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Tue 18 Mar 07:24
Quote:
jake89, Tue 18 Mar 07:06
Won`t happen. Trump will have a word. He`s got the best negotiation skills. The greatest. Possibly the finest in the world.
Mind that time he slagged off the trade deal with Canada? You know, the one he negotiated? 😂
Post Edited (Tue 18 Mar 07:25)
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Tue 18 Mar 08:08
Quote:
Dave_1885, Tue 18 Mar 07:24
Quote:
jake89, Tue 18 Mar 07:06
Won`t happen. Trump will have a word. He`s got the best negotiation skills. The greatest. Possibly the finest in the world.
Mind that time he slagged off the trade deal with Canada? You know, the one he negotiated? 😂
Yeah, but no, but yeah but he never done nuffin!
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Tue 18 Mar 09:40
Quote:
Dave_1885, Tue 18 Mar 05:51
Anyone that thought Trump returning to the White House would bring peace and prosperity to the US and the world are absolute mugs. And with Elon pulling the strings it will only get worse. Not surprising that Benjamin the war criminal has began bombing Gaza again either.
I just hope that when it does come about, that the first ones called up within the UK are the patriots to the nation, the ones that proudly fly the British flag, bend the knee to the king and vote for the likes of throwing immigrants from the country.
I will certainly not be storming off to fight in a war for a King I will never sweat allegiance to.
That will certainly sort out the inactive youth sitting in the house claiming benefits!🤔
Conscription on its way?
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Tue 18 Mar 10:06
Quote:
LochgellyAlbert, Tue 18 Mar 09:40
Quote:
Dave_1885, Tue 18 Mar 05:51
Anyone that thought Trump returning to the White House would bring peace and prosperity to the US and the world are absolute mugs. And with Elon pulling the strings it will only get worse. Not surprising that Benjamin the war criminal has began bombing Gaza again either.
I just hope that when it does come about, that the first ones called up within the UK are the patriots to the nation, the ones that proudly fly the British flag, bend the knee to the king and vote for the likes of throwing immigrants from the country.
I will certainly not be storming off to fight in a war for a King I will never sweat allegiance to.
That will certainly sort out the inactive youth sitting in the house claiming benefits!🤔
Conscription on its way?
They can try……
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Tue 18 Mar 10:27
On a serious note, there`s a massive problem that most people are now of a view that they will NOT fight for their country because the reality is the poor will be sent to die while the rich sit in ivory towers thinking nothing of the casualties. It`s not a game, it`s not about national pride, it`s about who will end up with the fewest deaths. As they covered in the 1980s film War Games, the only way to win is to not play at all. I`m hardly a pacifist but the world needs to work together rather than to appease a handful of idiots in power.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Tue 18 Mar 11:08
I wouldn`t worry about any strategic ties Iran has with Moscow and Beijing. Russia will throw the Iranians under the bus just as the Americans are doing with Ukraine. In fact I wouldn`t be surprised if that is part of the deal Putin and Trump are hammering out. We`ll stop backing Ukraine and you stop backing Iran. It was believed that America was trying to peel Russia away from China but maybe fracturing the Moscow/Tehran is the true aim. Iran really should have thought of the long game when they backed Hezbollah and Hamas and sold so many of their drones to Russia. They may have came in handy in any coming conflict. Even if Russia were wanting to help out Iran they are in no position to do so as their three day special military operation enters its fourth year. Iran has very few cards to play having seen their proxies in the region neutered one by one. Yes they could cause havoc with the oil supply, most of which goes to China and East Asia (bad news for Beijing) but they can only do that once and if it came to that then it means that the Iranian regime is in its death throes. That though is why I don`t think war is going to happen. The Iranian regimes number one priority is the survival of the regime. If completely and totally giving up their nuclear ambitions ensures that then that is what they will do.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Tue 18 Mar 11:33
I do not doubt that Putin will make it clear to Trump that the U.S. and NATO suffered a significant defeat in Ukraine—and that if they attempt to take on Iran, they will lose. Worse still, Israel could face destruction.
The West’s naivety about Iran is astounding. This is a nation of 90 million people with a highly educated and sophisticated population. Its vast and diverse geography gives it significant strategic advantages in any conflict. Most crucially, Iran controls the entrance to the Persian Gulf, meaning it has the power to disrupt global trade and energy supplies if provoked.
The world is shifting, but Western strategic thinking is in the past. China is poised to surpass the U.S., and America is withering on the vine—Trump is only accelerating the decline.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Tue 18 Mar 12:10
If Iran restricts that flow of oil from the Gulf then China grounds to a standstill so perhaps America would take that as an added bonus. Of course that won`t happen as you think Iran would come out on top in any military conflict with America. The geography won`t matter two hoots as the US won`t be be putting boots on the ground or siezing territory. They`ll systematically dismantle the Iranian military from above and with it the Iranian regime.
China will eventually surpass America as the dominant world power but it won`t be until the last quarter of the century and even then with it`s huge natural resources the US will continue to be a peer to the Chinese. Of course China will make their own moves to improve their natural resources. Australia for one is in the Chinese sphere of influence as they proved last month with naval exercises thousands of miles away from China but only just off the coast of Australia.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Wed 19 Mar 03:00
TOWK, your views on Iran, Russia, and China closely reflect the Neocon narrative dominant in Western media, but this often misrepresents reality.
Take the claim that if Iran restricted Gulf oil, “China grounds to a standstill”. That`s an oversimplification. While China relies on Gulf oil, this dependence is strategic, not absolute. It has actively diversified energy sources, securing supplies from Russia, Kazakhstan, and African and Latin American nations. Also, Oman and Australia ensure resilience. The idea that China would collapse from a Gulf oil disruption is a gross exaggeration.
You also assume a US-Israel war would dismantle Iran`s military and regime. That`s a bold assumption.
Iran has one of the most advanced air defence networks, including S-300 and S-400 systems. Its missile stockpiles are stored in deep underground bunkers, making them far less vulnerable to aerial strikes than past US adversaries. You see, TOWK, geography does matter two hoots.
The October 2024 Iran-Israel missile attack is another misrepresented event. While the West focused on the volume of the attack, Iran strategically probed Israel’s Iron Dome defence system using cheap drones and older missiles before firing its Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles—Iran`s first operational hypersonic weapon – to illustrate their deadly accuracy and Israel’s inability to stop them. At 11,500 mph, this was a message, not just a missile.
The world is far more complex than Western military dominance and Chinese energy dependence. China, Russia, and Iran quickly adapted and challenged these outdated Western assumptions.
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Topic Originator: DunfyDave
Date: Wed 19 Mar 04:12
Quote:
OzPar, Wed 19 Mar 03:00
TOWK, your views on Iran, Russia, and China closely reflect the Neocon narrative dominant in Western media, but this often misrepresents reality.
Take the claim that if Iran restricted Gulf oil, “China grounds to a standstill”. That`s an oversimplification. While China relies on Gulf oil, this dependence is strategic, not absolute. It has actively diversified energy sources, securing supplies from Russia, Kazakhstan, and African and Latin American nations. Also, Oman and Australia ensure resilience. The idea that China would collapse from a Gulf oil disruption is a gross exaggeration.
You also assume a US-Israel war would dismantle Iran`s military and regime. That`s a bold assumption.
Iran has one of the most advanced air defence networks, including S-300 and S-400 systems. Its missile stockpiles are stored in deep underground bunkers, making them far less vulnerable to aerial strikes than past US adversaries. You see, TOWK, geography does matter two hoots.
The October 2024 Iran-Israel missile attack is another misrepresented event. While the West focused on the volume of the attack, Iran strategically probed Israel’s Iron Dome defence system using cheap drones and older missiles before firing its Fattah-1 hypersonic missiles—Iran`s first operational hypersonic weapon – to illustrate their deadly accuracy and Israel’s inability to stop them. At 11,500 mph, this was a message, not just a missile.
The world is far more complex than Western military dominance and Chinese energy dependence. China, Russia, and Iran quickly adapted and challenged these outdated Western assumptions.
^^^^ Well explained Oz
^^^^^ Very good post
DunfyDave
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Wed 19 Mar 05:11
TOWK said: China will eventually surpass America as the dominant world power but it won`t be until the last quarter of the century and even then with it`s huge natural resources the US will continue to be a peer to the Chinese. Of course China will make their own moves to improve their natural resources. Australia for one is in the Chinese sphere of influence as they proved last month with naval exercises thousands of miles away from China but only just off the coast of Australia.
===
Most economists would debate with your timeline. Most estimate China will overtake the USA within the next ten years. If you have visited China and the USA in the past five years, you would agree.
On your other observation, Australia has reached a point where we have more to fear from the Americans than the Chinese. Trust in the US is rapidly eroding, and Australians are increasingly questioning why we should maintain any military or economic dependence on Washington. This is not World War 2—the global landscape has shifted dramatically. While ties with the US will always exist, there is no reason why they should be stronger than those we share with China.
The AUKUS nuclear submarine deal - a trilateral agreement with the US and the UK - has become an economic disaster and a political millstone around our neck. Australians are furious at the $368 billion price tag, with the first submarines not arriving for 30 years. By then, they could be obsolete. And let’s not forget the Prime Minister, who signed us up for this deal and then conveniently landed a high-paying job with a major defence contractor. Corruption at the highest levels? Absolutely.
With Trump in office, AUKUS is likely to collapse - and most of us won`t shed a tear if it does. Why should we go bankrupt funding another U.S. military project that primarily benefits their industry, not ours?
Despite the relentless fearmongering, Australians do not fear China. They remain our biggest trading partner, and while our relationship is cautious, it is also pragmatic and stable.
Yes, China`s naval drills in our waters raise concerns, but how is that different from the US presence in the South China Sea? If we justify American warships operating near China`s borders, why should we be outraged when China does the same in our region?
It`s time we asked ourselves whose interests we are truly serving. From where we stand, it`s certainly not Australia`s.
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Wed 19 Mar 05:48
Oz once again showing his authoritarian schill colours and simping for China.
I work in Hong Kong with companies that are moving out of Mainland China every day. The unemployment situation in the Mainland is pretty desperate and there are many queueing up to get into Hong Kong to actually have a chance at meaningful employment. I`ve been offered jobs in the mainland and the salaries are nothing comparable to what`s on offer in HK, so people have nowhere near the same spending power as many seem to think. Put on top of this the looming demographic crisis, which will dwarf that of Japan or South Korea (its estimated that China`s population will drop to 800Mn by 2100) and the outlook is extremely dire. More and more countries are becoming acutely aware of the "debt trapping" of the BRI as well which is starting to isolate the CCP diplomatically. At the moment they can`t even afford to provide free healthcare, childcare or education for their population. A very good pal of mine works in strategic planning for one of the state-owned firms and much of his time is spent producing questionable documents that show the central government that the 5% growth target has been reached (his words).
China is absolutely not what it seems. China will never overtake the EU or US unless there is major political change and even then, Trump and Xi have made quite clear the dangers of being overly reliant on one trading partner.
India has more chance of being the next superpower than China.
As for Iran and its people, the elephant in the room there is how much of the populace actually supports the regime. From what my groupmates in Heidelberg told me, very few other than the very religiously conservative.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Wed 19 Mar 06:02
HJ. You talk of Hong Kong as if it is some magical little kingdom. You might not want to believe it, surrounded as you are by all those privileged and pretentious white bankers, but you are in China! And if you think India will ever overtake China, you just ain’t right in the heid.
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Wed 19 Mar 06:10
You`ve tried this approach of simply saying that I "live in a bubble" before Oz. I am over in the Mainland quite often with work and the fact is that you simply don`t know what you`re talking about when it comes to China, so why even pretend?
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Wed 19 Mar 06:17
And BTW, what on earth is an “authoritarian schill”? You certainly live in a very odd little bubble. Thankfully, I find your posts mildly amusing… if a little childish.
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Wed 19 Mar 07:15
Deflection once again Oz, why can`t you just admit you don`t know?
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Wed 19 Mar 08:20
China will most definitely overtake the US if things continue as they currently do. Other nations will too if things remain the same. As the saying goes "pride comes before a fall" and the US has believed for years they`re "the best" when the reality is far from the truth and continues to get worse. It`s similar in Britain where people still cling onto this notion of an empire and blitz spirit etc. Take a look around.
The only way the likes of China, Brazil, India etc will fail will be by making the same mistakes as the likes of the US and being greedy and lazy.
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Topic Originator: DunfyDave
Date: Wed 19 Mar 08:20
Oz he obviously has an opinion if he lives and works in HK and China. It is after all quite a complex subject that is intertwined with decades of political mistrust whilst our economies have become so tied-up with each others.
I do agree with Oz on the AUKUS deal. It`s a shambles and benefits only the USA
I was shocked to learn that our nuclear defence is obsolete as the warheads sit on top of US missiles that are leased from America and can only ever be fired under strict authority from them.
How could our leaders ever have signed up to such a terrible deal?
Whilst I suspect our UK and EU leaders are still pandering to an exceptionally arrogant Trump, they may be doing this to ride-out his 4yr term with the hope of renegotiating with his successor. If this is the case, then we need new leaders now as we crave leadership like never before.
DunfyDave
Post Edited (Wed 19 Mar 08:28)
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Wed 19 Mar 09:33
Dunfy, the notion that the UK doesn`t have full independent control has been floated about for years, probably a a Russian misinformation tactic.
It had been thoroughly debunked.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/heres-how-britains-nukes-are-operationally-independent/
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Wed 19 Mar 09:54
Quote:
The One Who Knocks, Wed 19 Mar 09:33
Dunfy, the notion that the UK doesn`t have full independent control has been floated about for years, probably a a Russian misinformation tactic.
It had been thoroughly debunked.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/heres-how-britains-nukes-are-operationally-independent/
Let’s also just remember that Britains nuclear fleet and arsenal are currently kept 400 miles away from the capital…….🙄 which is great news for us
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Wed 19 Mar 10:13
Let`s not forget about the naval dockyard on the Fife coast either.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: DunfyDave
Date: Wed 19 Mar 10:53
Quote:
Dave_1885, Wed 19 Mar 09:54
Quote:
The One Who Knocks, Wed 19 Mar 09:33
Dunfy, the notion that the UK doesn`t have full independent control has been floated about for years, probably a a Russian misinformation tactic.
It had been thoroughly debunked.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/heres-how-britains-nukes-are-operationally-independent/
Let’s also just remember that Britains nuclear fleet and arsenal are currently kept 400 miles away from the capital…….🙄 which is great news for us
^^^ At this moment in time I am happy that we have them and (stand corrected) can use them irrespective of how safe we are v. London
DunfyDave
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Wed 19 Mar 13:47
DD - The simple point is that Oz doesn`t have a clue what he`s talking about regarding China. The man speaks NO Chinese and is simply using his visits to HK as the basis of his opinion.
I deal with the Mainland Chinese on a daily basis and, frankly, there is nobody in the world that you should trust less. I work with people in state-owned enterprises who/which are themselves now attempting to conduct the majority of their business abroad because the Central Government has mismanaged the Chinese economy on a colossal scale.
Oz is either too ignorant or arrogant to acknowledge this fact.
If you understand Putonghua Chinese and listen to/read their media, then the first thing you will pick up from them is that they have a propensity to "hate on" or denigrate both Taiwan and Singapore because both nations are prime examples of how the Han Chinese ethnicity does not need the "management of the CCP to create prosperity". This is a rather common line that you`ll see on propaganda you`ll see in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and beyond...
On top of that, American or Japan = Bad. No arguments.
Take a look at Oz`s posts on Russia in recent times, which are pretty much a Copy & Paste of Dmitry Medvedev`s Telegram channel. These alone prove why anything he posts should simply be regarded as Tanky propaganda.
China is, and always shall be, stuck in the "Middle Income Trap". That is, until there is major political reform in China. It absolutely has the potential to thrive without the CCP.
Of course though, I`m just a "privileged Gweilo banker" according to dinosaurs like Oz. Although, I`m willing to bet that he doesn`t even know what Gweilo means despite his professed expertise on China...
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Wed 19 Mar 15:21
Quote:
hurricane_jimmy, Wed 19 Mar 13:47
DD - The simple point is that Oz doesn`t have a clue what he`s talking about regarding China. The man speaks NO Chinese and is simply using his visits to HK as the basis of his opinion.
I deal with the Mainland Chinese on a daily basis and, frankly, there is nobody in the world that you should trust less. I work with people in state-owned enterprises who/which are themselves now attempting to conduct the majority of their business abroad because the Central Government has mismanaged the Chinese economy on a colossal scale.
Oz is either too ignorant or arrogant to acknowledge this fact.
If you understand Putonghua Chinese and listen to/read their media, then the first thing you will pick up from them is that they have a propensity to "hate on" or denigrate both Taiwan and Singapore because both nations are prime examples of how the Han Chinese ethnicity does not need the "management of the CCP to create prosperity". This is a rather common line that you`ll see on propaganda you`ll see in Shenzhen, Guangzhou and beyond...
On top of that, American or Japan = Bad. No arguments.
Take a look at Oz`s posts on Russia in recent times, which are pretty much a Copy & Paste of Dmitry Medvedev`s Telegram channel. These alone prove why anything he posts should simply be regarded as Tanky propaganda.
China is, and always shall be, stuck in the "Middle Income Trap". That is, until there is major political reform in China. It absolutely has the potential to thrive without the CCP.
Of course though, I`m just a "privileged Gweilo banker" according to dinosaurs like Oz. Although, I`m willing to bet that he doesn`t even know what Gweilo means despite his professed expertise on China...
Your hate is oozing out your pores.....keep calm..
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Wed 19 Mar 15:48
Hate for what exactly Tenruh? Please do enlighten me!
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Topic Originator: DunfyDave
Date: Thu 20 Mar 01:14
Dave1885 I have just fact-checked my previous post about leasing US Missiles and I was embarrassingly wrong. Thanks for kindly pointing that out.
Oz and HJ generally write good posts that are well thought out, superbly written and perfectly delivered. They do contain opinions but they are generally quite subtle and appropriate.
The China debate is still playing out and probably has decades to go before the answers are truly known and which opinion was correct.
All that we have to go on is recent trends and China`s have been sky-rocketing.
However, other emerging nations have shown their ambitions (India, Brazil, Iran, etc) and you can never right-off America nor Russia.
One thing is for certain, we are all in for one helluva ride.
DunfyDave
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Sun 23 Mar 03:53
HJ, While I obviously don’t share your view of my knowledge (or character), I respect that you’ve had professional experience dealing with the Mainland and that this informs your perspective.
To clarify a few things:
I’ve been visiting China since 1983, starting with Shanghai and Hong Kong and returning many times since. I’ve been as far north as Tianjin and Qingdao and spent time in Shenzhen and Guangzhou in the south. So, while I don’t pretend to be an insider, I haven’t formed my views based purely on hotel breakfasts and airport lounges.
I’ve also been studying standard Mandarin (yes, Putonghua) this past year—slow progress, but progress nonetheless. I am planning an extended holiday in China later in the year, during which I will base myself in Chengdu.
And as for "Gweilo"—I suspect I picked that up more than 40 years ago when I was mixing with the old hands at Jardines, Swire, and HKSB. So, no, it`s not exactly a new term for me.
We’re coming at this from different angles, which is fine. Any debate should be healthy. But we’re better off sticking to the argument than taking personal shots. You might find we agree on more than it seems—if we can dial down the volume.
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