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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Tue 24 Nov 07:16
Traditionally there used to be 12 days, of course, but we`re apparently cutting down this year, in a nod to the ongoing pandemic.
Seriously though, I`d like to hear the views of fellow dotnetters. Our political leaders almost certainly don`t want to ease restrictions for ``a pagan festival appropriated by Christians`` (© sammer) but probably feel that the people would rebel against any continuing restrictions and just ignore them anyway. Perhaps when the inevitable surge in new cases materialises in January, we will all take our medicine with greater resignation, realising that there are always consequences and a price to pay for our (irresponsible) actions.
Hopefully, most of us will be responsible and the consequences will be minimal, but I`m not overly optimistic. How folk behave on Hogmanay, when the relaxation has ended, will be quite revealing. Our PM is on record as saying that the British public ignore restrictions on a greater scale than other countries ``because the British value their sense of freedom more.``
Hmmm......
Not your average Sunday League player.
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Topic Originator: sadindiefreak
Date: Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Tue 24 Nov 19:19
From what I can gather Nicola Sturgeon is committed to ‘saving’ Xmas but not Hogmanay, which is quite in keeping with the political Puritanism of our times. Xmas has traditionally been focused on family, and is built upon the concept of a shared meal. Hogmanay focuses more on the wider community, such as visiting neighbours, and is built upon the shared consumption of alcohol. Xmas is geared very much to children whereas Hogmanay is for all ages, even children sitting up late drinking raspberry cordial.
‘Following the science’ seems to have been temporarily abandoned for fear of becoming unpopular, so it was presumably a case of the least worst scenario for the government. Historically, banning Xmas would have made more sense in Scotland. It was banned outright in 1640 by leaders who took inspiration from Calvinist Geneva rather than Papist Rome and that was only overturned in 1712. Even then, Xmas was a low key event in Scotland and not a public holiday until 1958, whilst Boxing Day only became one in 1974. I remember my father, who worked on building sites, used to work Xmas Day when I was a boy although employers used to let family men home around dinner time. Presumably the bachelors had to argue their own case.
sammer
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Tue 24 Nov 19:57
Quote:
sadindiefreak, Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
Ul have restrictions right up to the 22nd then from the 28 th covid will reappear n we ll be in full lockdown for month after month until we stop complying with this tyranny
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Topic Originator: Raymie the Legend
Date: Tue 24 Nov 20:18
Why do we need 5 days? 2 days more than enough.
Should also be conditional that only people living alone can spend Christmas elsewhere
It`s bloody tough being a legend
Ron Atkinson - 1983
Post Edited (Tue 24 Nov 20:18)
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Tue 24 Nov 21:07
Quote:
sadindiefreak, Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
The government have obviously brainwashed you. All you need is a temperature gun n if temperature fine it’s so safe . Do you work for government by any chance? You just seem to enjoy scaremongering people on here
Post Edited (Tue 24 Nov 21:46)
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Tue 24 Nov 21:41
Pot
Kettle
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Tue 24 Nov 21:48
We'll be staying at home. Maybe nip round the family who live locally to drop in gifts but won't be seeing further afield family as we normally would. To be honest, it's not all negative. I've always found Christmas a bit of a pain with all the travelling so won't miss that. Will obviously miss the family we won't see, but we can see them another time.
The five day thing is a compromise due to them knowing people will do it anyway, and also due to the amount of money that gets spent this time of year. It's nothing to do with preference to Christian celebrations. Christ was removed from Christmas a long time ago.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Tue 24 Nov 23:03
It’s not so much an issue of governments seizing power by exploiting a virus, as the public demanding that its freedom be limited. No government in history has ever passed up the opportunity to control its citizenry and so long as we have people earnestly asking permission for when and who they can meet inside their house then the government’s work is being done for it.
Avoiding human contact may inhibit the spread of transmission of a virus that kills less than 1 per cent of those who catch it, but it’s hardly a zero sum game. There will be a number of deaths caused by the ramifications of lockdown although these are unlikely to be highlighted by MSM. There is a human price for obeying lockdown as well.
As a counterpoint to Sadindiefreak’s decision, I have a granddaughter aged five whose other grandparents are both around 80 years of age and they are adamant that they see their grandchild at Xmas. They have stayed largely indoors since March as requested, are fully aware of potential risk, but have decided that contact with their family is the most precious thing they have left. That is their decision to make same as SIF has made his and not a matter that should be in the gift of Nicola Sturgeon.
sammer
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Topic Originator: back oh the net
Date: Tue 24 Nov 23:34
Quote:
dander par, Tue 24 Nov 19:57
Quote:
sadindiefreak, Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
Ul have restrictions right up to the 22nd then from the 28 th covid will reappear n we ll be in full lockdown for month after month until we stop complying with this tyranny
🤣😂🤣😂🤣 you’re trying to hard mate
Come on ye pars ⚽️
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Topic Originator: back oh the net
Date: Tue 24 Nov 23:34
Quote:
dander par, Tue 24 Nov 21:07
Quote:
sadindiefreak, Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
The government have obviously brainwashed you. All you need is a temperature gun n if temperature fine it’s so safe . Do you work for government by any chance? You just seem to enjoy scaremongering people on here
Post Edited (Tue 24 Nov 21:46)
No really you are 🤣🤣🤣
Come on ye pars ⚽️
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Topic Originator: sadindiefreak
Date: Tue 24 Nov 23:54
Quote:
dander par, Tue 24 Nov 21:07
Quote:
sadindiefreak, Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
The government have obviously brainwashed you. All you need is a temperature gun n if temperature fine it’s so safe . Do you work for government by any chance? You just seem to enjoy scaremongering people on here
My mate in his 40s died from it 4 weeks ago so go f**k yourself you utter cretin
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Topic Originator: P
Date: Wed 25 Nov 10:03
Quote:
dander par, Tue 24 Nov 21:07
Quote:
sadindiefreak, Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
The government have obviously brainwashed you. All you need is a temperature gun n if temperature fine it’s so safe . Do you work for government by any chance? You just seem to enjoy scaremongering people on here
Post Edited (Tue 24 Nov 21:46)
Not just wrong but dangerously wrong
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Wed 25 Nov 12:37
Quote:
P, Wed 25 Nov 10:03
Quote:
dander par, Tue 24 Nov 21:07
Quote:
sadindiefreak, Tue 24 Nov 08:25
Won't be coming through to my mums for Christmas this year.
It's not worth the risk.
Imagine how I would feel if I ended up killing her because of 1 day.
There will inevitably be some people who infect their family members leading to them dying. I feel sad just thinking about how bad they will feel when it happens.
The government have obviously brainwashed you. All you need is a temperature gun n if temperature fine it’s so safe . Do you work for government by any chance? You just seem to enjoy scaremongering people on here
Post Edited (Tue 24 Nov 21:46)
Not just wrong but dangerously wrong
Sorry for your loss .
Care to elaborate P . I was at drs last night n to get in I had temperature gun nothing else . N that’s all you need to do at Xmas time check peoples temperature when they come in or live by what the government propaganda says
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Wed 25 Nov 12:46
I think this is crazy but please keep in mind all 4 ruling governments agreed to this - not just "the government"
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Wed 25 Nov 13:03
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/dont-rely-on-temperature-screening-products-for-detection-of-coronavirus-covid-19-says-mhra#:~:text=There%20is%20little%20scientific%20evidence,unknowingly%20spread%20the%20virus.
Post Edited (Wed 25 Nov 13:07)
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Topic Originator: P
Date: Wed 25 Nov 13:26
See VEE’s link - you can still transmit the virus despite a healthy reading. The temperature check is useful in scenarios like doctor surgeries etc when dealing with volumes of people as a risk based method of reducing exposure as it will identify some as they have a temperature but it’s not as simple as temperature check done then you are clear.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Wed 25 Nov 13:58
So, according to dander par, we could have avoided all these restrictions on pubs, restaurants, sports grounds, travel, shops, etc by performing a simple temperature check - and he thinks the majority of us have been duped!
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Topic Originator: MDCCCLXXXV
Date: Wed 25 Nov 14:01
Dander Par, don't take this personally, in fact take it personally
You sir are an idiot
 East End Park is a symbol of all that is DAFC.
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Topic Originator: Par
Date: Wed 25 Nov 14:13
What are you going to give your elderly loved ones this Christmas?
Hopefully if everyone is sensible we can all celebrate next Christmas together.
I for one will be dropping presents at the door and wishing a socially distanced Merry Christmas, the risk is too great to do anything else this year. I am willing to sacrifice one Christmas so we can have many more in the future
My fear is a huge spike come January, it is not worth it.
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Wed 25 Nov 14:46
Quote:
MDCCCLXXXV, Wed 25 Nov 14:01
Dander Par, don't take this personally, in fact take it personally
You sir are an idiot
That coming from someone who stays north of the railway bridge at Lochgelly 😂
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Wed 25 Nov 14:50
Quote:
wee eck, Wed 25 Nov 13:58
So, according to dander par, we could have avoided all these restrictions on pubs, restaurants, sports grounds, travel, shops, etc by performing a simple temperature check - and he thinks the majority of us have been duped!
One day you will realise that this is the biggest sha*ting the government has ever tried on our nation. How can you be healthy and have symptoms that’s what you call being duped by a virus that has a 99.7% survival. ONE DAY hopefully soon. Watch America 🇺🇸🎺
Post Edited (Wed 25 Nov 14:51)
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Wed 25 Nov 15:54
99.7% survival?
Don`t let facts get in the way of a good yarn, dander par...
FACTS:-
The U.S. case fatality rate — which is the number of people who die out of everyone diagnosed — was around 5 to 6 percent in the springtime. That’s partly because fewer people were being tested, so fewer cases overall were being detected. But health providers were also figuring out for the first time how to treat covid-19 patients in severe respiratory distress.
Over the summer, as testing expanded and hospitals tried different drugs and procedures on patients, the case fatality rate in the United States declined to between 1.5 and 2 percent. And that’s where it has remained over the past three months or so.
[Johns Hopkins University]
The researchers find that age specific Infection Fatality Ratios (IFRs) follow a pattern, with the risk of death doubling approximately every eight years of age.
Age-specific IFRs increased from 0.1% and below for individuals under 40 years to greater than 5% among individuals over 80 years.
Using these age-specific estimates, the team estimates the overall IFR in a low-income country, with a population structure skewed towards younger individuals, can be expected to be approximately 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).
In contrast, in high income countries, with a greater concentration of elderly individuals, the report estimates that the overall IFR can be expected to be approximately 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).
[Imperial College London]
“Although the elderly are by far at the highest risk of dying due to COVID-19, the risk in middle age is still high. For example, we estimate that around 1 in 260 people aged 50-55 years die if infected."
[Dr Lucy Okell, a co-author of the study from Imperial College London]
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Wed 25 Nov 16:13
Who is going to save the world now that Donald Trump has apparently thrown in the towel? I don`t believe in superheroes anymore.
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Wed 25 Nov 16:22
Quote:
wee eck, Wed 25 Nov 16:13
Who is going to save the world now that Donald Trump has apparently thrown in the towel? I don`t believe in superheroes anymore.
Stop watching MSM
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Wed 25 Nov 17:51
Is Fox News part of MSM now? It`s hard to keep up.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Wed 25 Nov 17:52
Turning in to an entertaining thread :)
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
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Topic Originator: MDCCCLXXXV
Date: Wed 25 Nov 18:02
Quote:
dander par, Wed 25 Nov 14:46
Quote:
MDCCCLXXXV, Wed 25 Nov 14:01
Dander Par, don't take this personally, in fact take it personally
You sir are an idiot
That coming from someone who stays north of the railway bridge at Lochgelly 😂
Not as much of an idiot as I thought, you know Ballingry is North of Lochgelly
East End Park is a symbol of all that is DAFC.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Wed 25 Nov 23:04
All we can count is bodies. Cause of death is a matter of opinion, even after an autopsy.
I will leave infection rates and the R rate, long Covid and the like, to those experts who are required to anticipate trends in medical care. Their work is valuable for sure.
At present we are on course to have fewer dead bodies in 2020 than we did, per capita, in the UK in 1977 or 1978. So are we panicking now, or we were we complacent then when life went on as normal? Which is it?
sammer
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Wed 25 Nov 23:36
Can I ask why did you pick 1977 and 1978?
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Jeffery
Date: Wed 25 Nov 23:43
Quote:
The One Who Knocks, Wed 25 Nov 23:36
Can I ask why did you pick 1977 and 1978?
I'd guess because Russian flu hit those years.
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Topic Originator: sadindiefreak
Date: Thu 26 Nov 02:07
Quote:
Jeffery, Wed 25 Nov 23:43
Quote:
The One Who Knocks, Wed 25 Nov 23:36
Can I ask why did you pick 1977 and 1978?
I'd guess because Russian flu hit those years.
And there was no lockdown then. The reason there are fewer now is lockdown.
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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Thu 26 Nov 06:34
Is there any way of measuring the relative ``infectability`` of Covid-19 against various strains of influenza or common cold viruses? i.e. How much more/less likely are we to catch Covid from a carrier compared to these other viruses under identical conditions?
Not your average Sunday League player.
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Thu 26 Nov 08:30
Quote:
GG Riva, Thu 26 Nov 06:34
Is there any way of measuring the relative ``infectability`` of Covid-19 against various strains of influenza or common cold viruses? i.e. How much more/less likely are we to catch Covid from a carrier compared to these other viruses under identical conditions?
Is this not the R number. From a health website.
R0, pronounced “R naught,” is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection is transmitted to new people, it reproduces itself.
R0 tells you the average number of people who will contract a contagious disease from one person with that disease. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven’t been vaccinated.
For example, if a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people. That replication will continue if no one has been vaccinated against the disease or is already immune to it in their community.
What do R0 values mean?
Three possibilities exist for the potential transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:
If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.
Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:
no one has been vaccinated
no one has had the disease before
there’s no way to control the spread of the disease
This combination of conditions is rare nowadays thanks to advances in medicine. Many diseases that were deadly in the past can now be contained and sometimes cured.
For example, in 1918 there was a worldwide outbreak of the swine flu that killed 50 million people. According to a review article published in BMC Medicine, the R0 value of the 1918 pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8.
But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6, report researchers in the journal Science. The existence of vaccines and antiviral drugs made the 2009 outbreak much less deadly.
COVID-19 R0
The R0 for COVID-19 is a median of 5.7, according to a study published online in Emerging Infectious Diseases. That’s about double an earlier R0 estimate of 2.2 to 2.7
The 5.7 means that one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people, rather than the 2 to 3 researchers originally thought.
Researchers calculated the new number based on data from the original outbr
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 26 Nov 09:12
Interesting stuff, moviescot, even if you were cut off in your prime. That to me illustrates the fallacy in the arguments of those who rail against the lockdown and other restrictions. They say the relatively low casualty rate does not justify such draconian measures whilst not acknowledging that it`s those measures which have helped to keep the casualty rates down.
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Thu 26 Nov 10:25
Exactly Wee Eck. In the last few weeks 7 people we know across the UK have contracted Covid - and they are careful in their locality. One has been quite unwell for a fortnight.
There`s a mobile testing unit just moved into Clackmannanshire, anybody can attend for a check, no need for referral - we seem to be a significant concern.
Those who have a cavalier mindset that there`s no virus coming to their neighbourhood are head in the sand merchants.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Thu 26 Nov 13:15
Literally no-one is saying this.
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Thu 26 Nov 14:09
In that case some have a very strange way of not saying this.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Thu 26 Nov 14:16
….or you hear what you want to hear.
Not everything is as cut & dried as you make out.
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Thu 26 Nov 14:30
Quote:
moviescot, Thu 26 Nov 08:30
Quote:
GG Riva, Thu 26 Nov 06:34
Is there any way of measuring the relative ``infectability`` of Covid-19 against various strains of influenza or common cold viruses? i.e. How much more/less likely are we to catch Covid from a carrier compared to these other viruses under identical conditions?
Is this not the R number. From a health website.
R0, pronounced “R naught,” is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection is transmitted to new people, it reproduces itself.
R0 tells you the average number of people who will contract a contagious disease from one person with that disease. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven’t been vaccinated.
For example, if a disease has an R0 of 18, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 18 other people. That replication will continue if no one has been vaccinated against the disease or is already immune to it in their community.
What do R0 values mean?
Three possibilities exist for the potential transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R0 value:
If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.
Importantly, a disease’s R0 value only applies when everyone in a population is completely vulnerable to the disease. This means:
no one has been vaccinated
no one has had the disease before
there’s no way to control the spread of the disease
This combination of conditions is rare nowadays thanks to advances in medicine. Many diseases that were deadly in the past can now be contained and sometimes cured.
For example, in 1918 there was a worldwide outbreak of the swine flu that killed 50 million people. According to a review article published in BMC Medicine, the R0 value of the 1918 pandemic was estimated to be between 1.4 and 2.8.
But when the swine flu, or H1N1 virus, came back in 2009, its R0 value was between 1.4 and 1.6, report researchers in the journal Science. The existence of vaccines and antiviral drugs made the 2009 outbreak much less deadly.
COVID-19 R0
The R0 for COVID-19 is a median of 5.7, according to a study published online in Emerging Infectious Diseases. That’s about double an earlier R0 estimate of 2.2 to 2.7
The 5.7 means that one person with COVID-19 can potentially transmit the coronavirus to 5 to 6 people, rather than the 2 to 3 researchers originally thought.
Researchers calculated the new n
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Thu 26 Nov 14:54
"….or you hear what you want to hear."
Did I mishear a suggestion that a temperature check was the way to determine if somebody was "clean" or not ?
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Topic Originator: GG Riva
Date: Thu 26 Nov 15:13
Thanks for your comprehensive post, moviescot.
I did understand that the R number measures the reproductive rate o the virus, but what I was trying to ask, but failed miserably, was how Covid-19's R number compares to those of influenza and the common cold.
Not your average Sunday League player.
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Thu 26 Nov 17:03
GG - If you take a look at the "Basic Reproduction Number" page of Wikipedia it gives you a rough idea.
It puts COVID at 2-6, but I think it is probably closer to 6 than 2 so it should probably be higher on the list. It is clearly more contagious than the flu, and only clearly beaten by measles, mumps, and chickenpox.
It`s very difficult to compare between viruses unless the mode of transmission is similar. HIV might have a similar R0 but there is no chance of catching that from someone at Tesco unless your trips to Tesco are more interesting than mine.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Thu 26 Nov 17:08
VEE - are you seriously taking danderpars` posts for real? I`m sorry but you`ve lost a big chunk of credibility there.
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Thu 26 Nov 18:00
In which case five others on this thread are also in that same position.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Thu 26 Nov 19:02
Quote:
veteraneastender, Thu 26 Nov 18:00
In which case five others on this thread are also in that same position.
And your point is? 😁😁
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Thu 26 Nov 22:27
Quote:
wee eck, Wed 25 Nov 17:51
Is Fox News part of MSM now? It`s hard to keep up.
Yes
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Thu 26 Nov 22:29
Quote:
sammer, Wed 25 Nov 23:04
All we can count is bodies. Cause of death is a matter of opinion, even after an autopsy.
I will leave infection rates and the R rate, long Covid and the like, to those experts who are required to anticipate trends in medical care. Their work is valuable for sure.
At present we are on course to have fewer dead bodies in 2020 than we did, per capita, in the UK in 1977 or 1978. So are we panicking now, or we were we complacent then when life went on as normal? Which is it?
Not allowed to do autopsy on Covid patients as it’s to “Dangerous “
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Topic Originator: P
Date: Fri 27 Nov 05:40
More nonsense debunked in seconds
“The World Health Organisation (WHO) did not say that post mortems shouldn’t be performed on people who died with Covid-19. The WHO released guidance on 24 March on safety measures for managing bodies and performing post-mortems on patients who had died of Covid-19. This guidance does not say autopsies should not take place.”
https://fullfact.org/online/covid-italy-autopsies/
Post Edited (Fri 27 Nov 05:41)
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 27 Nov 07:32
Can we all just agree to ignore Dander as he's clearly at it?
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Topic Originator: moviescot
Date: Fri 27 Nov 08:22
Quote:
jake89, Fri 27 Nov 07:32
Can we all just agree to ignore Dander as he's clearly at it?
Yes please
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 27 Nov 08:37
I chose the years 1977 and 1978 since these years saw the highest recorded number of deaths per size of UK population since the war. I can’t remember any discussion about the higher than average death rate at that time and I’m not aware of why it occurred.
Wee Eck’s claim about Lockdown being the reason why the number of deaths in 2020 is on course to be lower than these years cannot be disproved. Anything which lowers transmission must have a beneficial effect on the casualty rate. However there are a few points to bear in mind. First of all, Lockdown can reduce deaths by Covid but must have a knock on effect in bringing about deaths by other causes so it is not as if Lockdown prevents all avoidable deaths. And if Lockdown were as effective as we are being led to believe, then Sweden should have had a significantly higher number of deaths per head of population before it altered its approach last month. There is also the case of Leicester which has been in Lockdown for a considerable time but with little sign of the infection rate improving.
My conclusion at present is that Lockdown helps, but that it is not as effective as the government leads us to believe. Lockdown also creates considerable physical and mental health problems of its own, some of which are liable to long outlast the outbreak of Covid. Lockdown is like booting the football out of the park when you are being over run. It might buy you time to reorganise or bring on a sub, but at some point that ball is going to come back on the park and you can’t just rely on booting it back out.
sammer
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 27 Nov 09:18
I didn`t refer to 1977 or 1978 in my post about lockdown. I was simply referring to 2020. Of course there is `collateral damage` from the effects of lockdown on other aspects of physical and mental health. I think that is why `excess deaths` is considered a more effective measure of the overall outcome of the restrictions.
I would tweak the football analogy a wee bit. Hopefully the ref will blow the whistle (when effective vaccines are freely available) whilst the ball is out the park and the game will end. Lockdown was never meant to be a cure, simply a means of playing for time.
Post Edited (Fri 27 Nov 09:21)
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 10:41
Lockdowns work! Yes, LOCKDOWNS WORK! But they must be watertight. No half-measures like you are doing in the UK at the moment.
We have completed a major fully coordinated lockdown in Victoria, and are now 28 days without new coronavirus cases. Very shortly, all being well, Australia as a whole, will be free of COVID-19. This would have been the case five months ago had it not been for the laxity of some quarantine hotels in Melbourne.
We have watched in amazement at the utter stupidity and randomness of the UK`s approach to dealing with the virus.
In terms of tackling the coronavirus, you are about six months behind us.
After the New Year, I am pretty certain that you will all be in full lockdown. The reality is that the bulk of you will not be getting access to the vaccine until well into next year, so your government(s) will have no option but to go full-on. And watch for the same approach in the USA once Biden takes over.
Without doubt there are people who are suffering mentally and physically from lockdowns, but in any crisis you have to deal with the core problems first. And clearly, wiping out the virus is the highest priority right now.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Fri 27 Nov 11:51
You dinny half come across as a right smart erse OzPar
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: Thaipar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:01
Quote:
OzPar, Fri 27 Nov 10:41
Lockdowns work! Yes, LOCKDOWNS WORK! But they must be watertight. No half-measures like you are doing in the UK at the moment.
We have completed a major fully coordinated lockdown in Victoria, and are now 28 days without new coronavirus cases. Very shortly, all being well, Australia as a whole, will be free of COVID-19. This would have been the case five months ago had it not been for the laxity of some quarantine hotels in Melbourne.
We have watched in amazement at the utter stupidity and randomness of the UK`s approach to dealing with the virus.
In terms of tackling the coronavirus, you are about six months behind us.
After the New Year, I am pretty certain that you will all be in full lockdown. The reality is that the bulk of you will not be getting access to the vaccine until well into next year, so your government(s) will have no option but to go full-on. And watch for the same approach in the USA once Biden takes over.
Without doubt there are people who are suffering mentally and physically from lockdowns, but in any crisis you have to deal with the core problems first. And clearly, wiping out the virus is the highest priority right now.
Have to agree Oz. It just amazes me the approach UK has /is taking. Borders all open, get off a flight and told to just go and self isolate!!!!
My mate who lives a few streets Away here went to the UK in March for a holiday with his Mrs. They got off the BA flight flew tto Edinburgh and before he even reached his hotel he had an email from BA saying his return flight was cancelled.
Due to flying restrictions and repatriation of citizens of Thailand he just managed to fly back on Sunday, after jumping through hoops and red tape etc. He had to get tested for cóvid within 3 days of departure, prebook a hotel to quarantine in upon arrival, have insurance cover for cóvid to the value of 100,000gbp all before he could board the flight.
Although we haven't had a 2nd wave everybody still wears masks in shops on public transport and generally 99% wear them in general public walking in the streets.
I can assure you I feel much safer here than I would if I was in the UK.
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:13
Comparing Australia with the UK is a dubious exercise.
The population density per square kilometre is 3.3 and 278.67 rspectively.
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Topic Originator: Thaipar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:24
Quote:
veteraneastender, Fri 27 Nov 12:13
Comparing Australia with the UK is a dubious exercise.
The population density per square kilometre is 3.3 and 278.67 rspectively.
But the same principle applies surely, I know that's not your name😊 but if all borders are closed, no letting people fly in and out the country then being told OK get public transport home etc then start self isolating!! It doesn't make sense.
Close the borders and allow flights in with strict quarantine in government appointed hotels etc paid for by the traveller.
Reading today that here we might not get open borders until 2022. And the economy here depends on tourists more than the UK.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:25
Fair enough, da no 1.
But then again, you whinged when I suggested that you were heading for a second wave, just like us, when the cooler weather arrived.
You whinged when I suggested that it was daft to gather in numbers on the beach without proper protections.
You whinged when I calculated that EEP`s likely capacity if reopened would be around a third of normal, months before it became a matter of public discussion in the Scottish media.
And now you are whinging because I`m pointing out that Britain`s inept and uncoordinated attempts at properly tackling the virus - unlike Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and several other countries in the eastern hemisphere - pretty much ensures that you are heading for strictly enforced lockdown measures in the New Year.
And if they are going to work, I am pretty sure that you will have plenty more to whinge about.
Smart ass? Perhaps so. I would prefer to consider it as forward thinking based on solid first-hand evidence.
Post Edited (Fri 27 Nov 12:27)
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:34
Think Oz is spot on.
We started off reasonably strict but it quickly fell apart when certain government figures were shown to be breaking rules.
As an island, it should be very easy to get rid of coronavirus.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:35
[Comparing Australia with the UK is a dubious exercise. The population density per square kilometre is 3.3 and 278.67 respectively.]
Australia`s biggest issue has been the state of Victoria, which is the size of Britain and has a population not dissimilar to Scotland (6.4 million).
The central focus has been the city of Melbourne which has a population far in excess of Glasgow and Edinburgh combined. It has a population density of 20,700 per square kilometre.
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Topic Originator: Thaipar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:37
Take this for example.
preston par, Wed 4 Mar 09:44
With the Cheltenham Festival just about upon us, will anyone be placing any bets this year?
There will be quite a few bookies such as Skybet and Paddy Power offering cash back offers if your horse doesn't win etc.
I will be having a look over the weekend and will post up my fancies, so keep an eye out for them and avoid them at all costs!
I would place a bet saying it will be cancelled if I was you.
That was 4th March. Italy reporting deaths by the hundreds daily but nah the UK decided to let 200,000 people mix and then call a lockdown. Not being a smartarse just seeing what was happening in Italy could tell you what the UK was facing but the government just ignored it completely.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Fri 27 Nov 12:51
Quote:
OzPar, Fri 27 Nov 12:25
Fair enough, da no 1.
But then again, you whinged when I suggested that you were heading for a second wave, just like us, when the cooler weather arrived.
You whinged when I suggested that it was daft to gather in numbers on the beach without proper protections.
You whinged when I calculated that EEP`s likely capacity if reopened would be around a third of normal, months before it became a matter of public discussion in the Scottish media.
And now you are whinging because I`m pointing out that Britain`s inept and uncoordinated attempts at properly tackling the virus - unlike Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and several other countries in the eastern hemisphere - pretty much ensures that you are heading for strictly enforced lockdown measures in the New Year.
And if they are going to work, I am pretty sure that you will have plenty more to whinge about.
Smart ass? Perhaps so. I would prefer to consider it as forward thinking based on solid first-hand evidence.
Ha ha what are you like? You're so clever! Are you on the Australian government's response group? You have all the answers eh? Cure for cancer next no doubt.
The very definition of smart @rse
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
Post Edited (Fri 27 Nov 12:53)
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:06
Funnily enough I have been appointed to several government response groups over the years (not medical, I might add), I`ve co-authored several government reports (probably about 15/20) and have been grilled by MPs and government ministers for 40 minutes at a Senate Inquiry into port privatisation. I even have a few name chacks in Hansard if you care to do a search.
Smart @rse? Well, you said it.
:)
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:06
"The central focus has been the city of Melbourne which has a population far in excess of Glasgow and Edinburgh combined. It has a population density of 20,700 per square kilometre." I suspect somebody has screwed up on their arithmetic - this source quotes around 450 per square km. http://www.population.net.au/melbourne-population/
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:09
Quote:
jake89, Fri 27 Nov 07:32
Can we all just agree to ignore Dander as he's clearly at it?
At what telling the truth about this Made virus that’s ruined the western world as planned by chyna.
One day Ul see the light n realise it’s not right all these measures for a virus that has a high survival rate .
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:10
The figure quoted by Ozpar is for inner Melbourne. According to Wikipedia and the Wall Street Journal, no Australian city makes the top 50 in world terms of density of population.
You would expect density of population to be a factor in spreading a virus but it’s not clear this is the case. Belgium has suffered badly in European terms yet Japan, with a similar density and with Tokyo being one of the most crowded cities in the world, has escaped lightly thus far. Singapore likewise has managed to control the virus better than most.
sammer
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Topic Originator: veteraneastender
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:13
Having text spacing issues - 20,700 per square km would rank Melbourne as the third highest population density in the world, behind Mumbai (31,700) and Dhaka (44,500).
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Topic Originator: Thaipar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:17
Quote:
da_no_1, Fri 27 Nov 12:51
Quote:
OzPar, Fri 27 Nov 12:25
Fair enough, da no 1.
But then again, you whinged when I suggested that you were heading for a second wave, just like us, when the cooler weather arrived.
You whinged when I suggested that it was daft to gather in numbers on the beach without proper protections.
You whinged when I calculated that EEP`s likely capacity if reopened would be around a third of normal, months before it became a matter of public discussion in the Scottish media.
And now you are whinging because I`m pointing out that Britain`s inept and uncoordinated attempts at properly tackling the virus - unlike Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and several other countries in the eastern hemisphere - pretty much ensures that you are heading for strictly enforced lockdown measures in the New Year.
And if they are going to work, I am pretty sure that you will have plenty more to whinge about.
Smart ass? Perhaps so. I would prefer to consider it as forward thinking based on solid first-hand evidence.
Ha ha what are you like? You're so clever! Are you on the Australian government's response group? You have all the answers eh? Cure for cancer next no doubt.
The very definition of smart @rse
Da you really are an bottom .
Did you miss the news bulletins Inn February and early March?
I would say the best way to describe it to you to make it simple for the hard of thinking would be to compare it to the weather.
Here in Italy it is deadly hurricanes taking 5 or 600 lives a day and the way the wind is heading is straight for the United Kingdom.
UK response.
Ah well we will just wait and see if the wind changes direction.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:23
^^^typical "I`m considerably cleverer than yow" response
Away and ride yersel
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: Thaipar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:27
Quote:
da_no_1, Fri 27 Nov 13:23
^^^typical "I`m considerably cleverer than yow" response
Away and ride yersel
So you accept it not being smart it is seeing what you failed too see?
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:31
Apologies. The population density I gave was indeed for Inner Melbourne. The population density of Greater Melbourne, which is about 70 km from west to east (yes, 70 km!!!), is 509.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Fri 27 Nov 13:53
"So you accept it not being smart it is seeing what you failed too see?"
I`ve no idea what that sentence means.
Look, it`s clear you`ve been proved correct. I`ve already bowed to your superior knowledge on this matter in the past & probably will again, no doubt.
It`s the manner of your posts - like we`re all doing something wrong here, when the reality is the vast majority of people are hanging off every word our ruling governments say, fervently hoping they`re correct.
You act like you, Ozpar, are better than us, simply because you happen to live in a country that has enforced different rules to ours.
Now please, bore off.
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
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Topic Originator: Thaipar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 14:21
Quote:
da_no_1, Fri 27 Nov 13:53
"So you accept it not being smart it is seeing what you failed too see?"
I`ve no idea what that sentence means.
Look, it`s clear you`ve been proved correct. I`ve already bowed to your superior knowledge on this matter in the past & probably will again, no doubt.
It`s the manner of your posts - like we`re all doing something wrong here, when the reality is the vast majority of people are hanging off every word our ruling governments say, fervently hoping they`re correct.
You act like you, Ozpar, are better than us, simply because you happen to live in a country that has enforced different rules to ours.
Now please, bore off.
What a bitter man you are. You have to look at everything I am better than yow!
Its not just OzPar or me saying it, it's governments all over the world. The Thai /Aus governments for a small example won't allow Brits in as the virus iis classed as severe even today in the UK.
Why should other. Countries who have taken extreme measures for 10 months now threaten their citizens. With a 2nd wave because of th UK's incompetence??
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Topic Originator: Snevets
Date: Fri 27 Nov 14:55
This is really, really tough. My 12 year old twin boys have severe autism and a learning disability. They don`t understand any of this. They can`t speak. They communicate using an app on their iPods. They keep `asking` for their favourite places and people but can`t understand why they can`t access or see them. They love swimming but can`t use pools because they can`t swim lengths and would need a carer with them. Family aren`t interested, social work have dropped off the radar. The boys go to Calaiswood School, thank goodness for their support. We feel disability interest and support has completely disappeared, instead of bringing everyone together this virus has caused separation and division and it`s very much every man (or woman) for himself. We are holding it together but only just and the latest news is that they are proposing schools close for a month at Christmas, a time we hate because not only does it coincide with the boys` diagnosis ten years ago but my boys also have no concept of the occasion and don`t play with toys. It will be like all other days for us with probably more self injurious behaviour thrown in. Ho ho ho
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Fri 27 Nov 15:45
"The covid 19 outbreak is the first big step in unprecedented control over mankind"
Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman if The World Economic Forum.
Nice.
Carole Baskin fed Rasta to a tiger.
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Topic Originator: da_no_1
Date: Fri 27 Nov 16:11
Absolutely devastated I'm banned from visiting Thailand I have to say. Oh wait I'd rather pluck my bawhairs oot one by one.
Especially if there's a minute chance of bumping into roasters like Thaipar
"Some days will stay a 1000 years, some pass like the flash of a spark"
Post Edited (Fri 27 Nov 16:12)
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Fri 27 Nov 16:11
Quote:
Rastapari, Fri 27 Nov 15:45
"The covid 19 outbreak is the first big step in unprecedented control over mankind"
Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman if The World Economic Forum.
Nice.
So true Rasta. Don’t worry us conspiracy theorists idiots to name a few of the things we ve been called will have the last laugh. Watch America 🇺🇸🎺. Byeden
Post Edited (Fri 27 Nov 16:15)
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Fri 27 Nov 16:30
Quote:
dander par, Fri 27 Nov 16:11
Quote:
Rastapari, Fri 27 Nov 15:45
"The covid 19 outbreak is the first big step in unprecedented control over mankind"
Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman if The World Economic Forum.
Nice.
So true Rasta. Don’t worry us conspiracy theorists idiots to name a few of the things we ve been called will have the last laugh. Watch America 🇺🇸🎺. Byeden
No one will be laughing, we're already at rationed freedom.
Carole Baskin fed Rasta to a tiger.
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Fri 27 Nov 18:34
Quote:
Rastapari, Fri 27 Nov 16:30
Quote:
dander par, Fri 27 Nov 16:11
Quote:
Rastapari, Fri 27 Nov 15:45
"The covid 19 outbreak is the first big step in unprecedented control over mankind"
Klaus Schwab, founder and executive chairman if The World Economic Forum.
Nice.
So true Rasta. Don’t worry us conspiracy theorists idiots to name a few of the things we ve been called will have the last laugh. Watch America 🇺🇸🎺. Byeden
No one will be laughing, we're already at rationed freedom.
Tip toeing into communism
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Topic Originator: buffy
Date: Fri 27 Nov 18:40
Oz is top notch.
Australia (and NZ) have done it correctly.
”Buffy’s Buns are the finest in Fife”, J. Spence 2019”
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Topic Originator: JTH123
Date: Fri 27 Nov 18:45
That sounds really tough snevets. Nothing I can say will make things any better but I feel for you all.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 27 Nov 19:35
One problem in trawling US right wing conspiracy sites is that their vocabulary is slightly skewed from a European perspective. The concept of Communism is a good example of this, since in the Land of the Free no Congressman far less Senator has ever been elected under such a ticket. In fact the leader of the Communist Party USA can normally be expected to do some jail time, whilst Communist supporters such as Charlie Chaplin or Paul Robeson had their passports impounded.
In Europe this is not the case, and Communist parties have shared power in both Italian and French governments. The people of West Fife were once represented by a Communist MP and so far as I know they seemed to survive unscathed.
I’m aware of a number of Communist regimes who were ruthless in dealing with opponents, but I have never heard of such a regime where the leaders died rich men. There is no Stalin, Brezhnev, Tito dynasty in the manner of the Bushes, Clintons or Trumps or of course Windsors and Sunaks. So the concept of billionaires like Musk, Gates and Schwab running a ‘Communist’ regime is a total contradiction in terms, quite apart from their having no need to take control of a capitalist system they largely control at the moment anyhow.
sammer
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Topic Originator: dander par
Date: Fri 27 Nov 19:55
Quote:
sammer, Fri 27 Nov 19:35
One problem in trawling US right wing conspiracy sites is that their vocabulary is slightly skewed from a European perspective. The concept of Communism is a good example of this, since in the Land of the Free no Congressman far less Senator has ever been elected under such a ticket. In fact the leader of the Communist Party USA can normally be expected to do some jail time, whilst Communist supporters such as Charlie Chaplin or Paul Robeson had their passports impounded.
In Europe this is not the case, and Communist parties have shared power in both Italian and French governments. The people of West Fife were once represented by a Communist MP and so far as I know they seemed to survive unscathed.
I’m aware of a number of Communist regimes who were ruthless in dealing with opponents, but I have never heard of such a regime where the leaders died rich men. There is no Stalin, Brezhnev, Tito dynasty in the manner of the Bushes, Clintons or Trumps or of course Windsors and Sunaks. So the concept of billionaires like Musk, Gates and Schwab running a ‘Communist’ regime is a total contradiction in terms, quite apart from their having no need to take control of a capitalist system they largely control at the moment anyhow.
Trump is the only capitalist left . The rest have sold their souls to the globalist regime . That’s why they all want rid of him . But they sure have one hell of a fight on their hands n am sure when it all comes out about this globalist elite the world will be disgusted at what they are seeing 🇺🇸🎺
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Topic Originator: Thaipar
Date: Fri 27 Nov 22:36
Quote:
da_no_1, Fri 27 Nov 16:11
Absolutely devastated I'm banned from visiting Thailand I have to say. Oh wait I'd rather pluck my bawhairs oot one by one.
Especially if there's a minute chance of bumping into roasters like Thaipar
You seem upset. Maybe lie down in a dark room for a week or 5.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Sat 28 Nov 00:31
Snevits, you have an incredibly tough tough gig by the sound of things. My hope is that you find the support that you clearly need in this difficult time.
The situation you describe is awful. It puts in sharp perspective the reality people like you face in your day-to-day life versus the petty inconveniences others imagine to be fundamental attacks on their "freedom".
Thank you for sharing your experience with us. I wish you and your family strength and some much needed good fortune.
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Topic Originator: Parfect68
Date: Sat 28 Nov 08:47
I agree with Oz Snevets, thank you for sharing your experience, a reality check for us all. I hope you find the support you and your family need or the strength to plow through these dark times. Are there any practical things as a local community we can help with?
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Topic Originator: Socks
Date: Sat 28 Nov 13:08
Thanks, Snevets, for posting that - obviously a really tough situation for you and I too hope you manage to get some support to help you through a particularly hard time of the year. A real disappointment to me this year is that it seems people with complex needs or health conditions have almost been written off as an inconvenience, and your post is a reminder of that. I hope you manage to get some respite from it, and although it`s difficult to be of any practical use, hopefully it helps just slightly to have some folk try to understand what life is like for you and your boys at the moment.
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Sat 28 Nov 14:32
When are people with complex health conditions NOT written off? This is nothing new.
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Topic Originator: Snevets
Date: Sat 28 Nov 21:01
Many thanks for the interest and concern guys, I do appreciate it. Some of you may remember our annual fundraising auctions `Ben and Finlay`s 12 Days of Christmas` where the funds went towards a developmental program for the boys where they were taught things at home that other children learn through socialisation. Our program of ten years fell apart due to Covid, tutors were scared to come to work despite them being keyworkers and us taking all necessary precautions in terms of PPE etc. My wife is a keyworker too so we were very grateful for the help provided by Calaiswood over the summer and now. Life is difficult and different but we can generally manage because it is a life we are now used to. One of the main problems is that this is a hidden disability. My boys look happy and healthy but although they are 12 they have the capacity of a 2/3 year old and that`s the bit people don`t get. Unfortunately everything seems to involve a fight when all we are trying to achieve is an improvement in our boys` wellbeing and potential.
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Topic Originator: Raymie the Legend
Date: Sun 29 Nov 00:38
I feel for you, snevets. Oz sums it up perfectly. It must make you mad when you hear people complaining that they can’t get to the pub?
I hope you can get the support your boys need in the early part of next year?
A big shout out to Calaiswood school.
It`s bloody tough being a legend
Ron Atkinson - 1983
Post Edited (Sun 29 Nov 00:41)
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