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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Thu 7 Dec 12:27
Ref: jake89, Palestine/ Israel 2 thread
Date: Sun 3 Dec 11:12
`If "what we know as the UK" is clinging onto a long dead empire then it can`t come any sooner. The pathetic superiority complex the UK has held it back for decades and it`s time it was stopped.`
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"What we know as the UK."
Maybe I`ve been reading the wrong stuff, but what I`m picking up is that the world is changing, big time.
To cut to the chase - let`s say Ukraine seeks terms. And Russia keeps all the land it has gained along its western border. All that land joins with Crimea and access to the Med. (Handy for the Black Sea fleet and any expansionist moves) What`s next? Russia carries out SMO`s along the rest of its border to the north? Until it has annexed a strip of land all along its western border? NATO would be properly involved by then? And what would happen here? Shortages. Services have already been cut significantly - more cuts necessary, to public services, to health service, to state pensions, ...
I feel that "what we know as the UK" may change drastically, in ways far beyond wiping out our "superiority complex", Jake.
Let`s face it, our national wealth creation, was based largely on subjugating other countries and taking their resources.
It crossed my mind - I never before thought there was going to be a price to pay, for all that historical western domination. Maybe it`s a way of looking at what`s happening now.
And it makes me and my wife get more out of each day - we`re getting out more, eating out more, and have thoroughly enjoyed nature`s autumn tree colour displays. All of which is maybe a good idea anyway as we are getting older. Can`t count on always having our health, or the UK "as we know it."
EDIT: Donno what happened to the subject heading. It was "Life as we know it", but when I made a wee edit to the post - not to do with the subject title - it disappeared. I don`t know how to change it back.
Post Edited (Thu 07 Dec 14:13)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Thu 7 Dec 18:35
C+P from the Israel/Palestine thread:
Interesting that Sammer shied away from the Oryx link on the other thread but continued to spout off on here. Auld men cannae deal with hard truths I guess.
Honestly, I find it funny how the CCP and Putin shills (who give a masterclass in being uninformed clowns) like Sammer want to label people like me a "NATO Man". Frankly, I`d rather that a peaceful future for my son was secure and that NATO was not needed, but the existence of gangsters like Putin and Xi who are only out to protect their own stolen Billions mean that will not be the case in my lifetime. Funnily enough, more and more Russians are beginning to wonder how a country with the vast resources of Russia hasn`t at least reached the same level of development as Poland since 1991.
As it stands, the Ukrainians are taking down modern Russian drones using 1970s German Gepards, which is quite hilarious if you understand how these weapons work. The Russians are taking huge casualties in Avdiivka and have hardly advanced. The approach seems to be to send untrained"cannon fodder" units forward containing a few artillery spotters to draw Ukrainian fire and target positions, but this is still not resulting in much success.
Considering how "competent" the Russian military was considered before February 2022, the Ukrainian defence of their country can be considered nothing short of heroic. F16s are about to enter the fray and the vast majority of the Ukrainian Western MBTs haven`t even been deployed yet.
Yes, funding is being held up in the US at the moment by "Y`all Qaeda" Republicans but the fairytale of 140Mn-strong Russia landing a sucker punch on the 450Mn-stong EU plus 350Mn-strong US with their collective economic might is absolute folly. Russia simply does not have the economic or technological base to defeat Ukraine outright, let alone the countries that are supplying Ukraine.
China is on the verge of economic collapse (which is only avoidable with dramatic political change) and too pre-occupied with power struggles within the CCP and so not interested in supporting Putin fully. Notwithstanding that, the Chinese "Happy with Crappy" quality control standard bares a large chunk of responsibility for the massive destruction of Russian inventory that has been seen thus far.
I see the other day, the Russians lost another Major General who drove over one of their own landmines. This was apparently because the Kremlin have marked the mine maps as being of the highest level of secrecy. You couldn`t make that level of incompetence up.
Cynical as it is, the US and EU are quite aware that continuing to drip feed the Ukrainian conflict and allow the Ukrainians to distract the Kremlin and destroy the Russian military gradually is not of great cost to them and will provide time for the modernisation and rearmament plans that are being put in place. Personally, I would rather see NATO commit its Air Forces and end the conflict swiftly,
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Thu 7 Dec 20:25
I think there are only two people left in the world who believe a Ukrainian victory is in the offing: Zelensky and Hurricane Jimmy. Six months ago they were talking up the much vaunted Ukrainian ‘counter offensive.’ Since then leading figures within Ukraine- Zaluzhny, Arakhamia and Arestovich- have come to their senses and reached a different conclusion. We no longer hear talk of ‘teaching Putin a lesson:’ the combined military/economic strategy to weaken Russia, dreamed up in Washington, has been a dismal failure. The priority now for the neo-conservative ruling class that heads NATO is to salvage what it can, which probably means propping up the Zelensky regime until next year’s presidential elections. A Ukrainian collapse before then might threaten their entire warmongering policy and, horror of horrors, mean the postponement of using Taiwan as their next proxy.
HJ’s masterplan to crush Russian forces with NATO airplanes is so ingenious it’s amazing no one has thought of it before.
Regarding the OP, we don’t know what Russia’s aims are in respect of its borders but I doubt that Putin shares HJ’s assumption of inherent NATO superiority. His military has spent the last 18 months turning its tanks into scrap metal and created a shortage of shells across NATO armouries. However Putin is by nature a cautious politician and while his government enjoys wide support for its willingness to confront NATO, that domestic support is contingent on neutralising Ukraine as a neighbouring state. Anything beyond that could change political opinion within Russia.
sammer
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Thu 7 Dec 20:38
Who invaded who, sammer?
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Fri 8 Dec 01:33
Sammer - As I said before, the Russians will hold on for a good while and then it will suddenly collapse as it did in Kherson and Kharkiv.
Even in Avdiivka, where Russia is "on the offensive", within a week over 6000 Russian troops were killed by about 1000 defending Ukrainians. Apparently the death rate on the Russian side is now worse than Bakhmut. They also have failed to throw the Ukrainians off the Eastern Bank of the Dnieper.
Putin wanted a 3 day war so far he`s nearly 700 days over that. If it wasn`t for all the death that he has caused, that simple fact would be genuinely laughable.
As I said, the EU and US can sit there and keep Putin distracted by drip feeding the conflict while they grow their own militaries, as is already taking place. Russia actually has to divert about half of its economic force to fund the conflict because decades of corruption have prevented proper development and only Moscow and St Petersburg are comparable to "developed standards".
If you genuinely think Putin isn`t scared of NATO air power, you are more of a fool than you seem. His army is taking massive casualties on the ground EVEN WITH air superiority. The Russians can`t even get their 5th generation fighter combat-worthy and the older Sukhois ain`t a match for the Eurofighters, F35s, Gripens and Dassaults available to NATO.
The EU and US will get funding over the line and Russia are already losing the marathon.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 8 Dec 19:49
`Who invaded who, sammer?`
Russia sent troops into Ukraine on 24th February 2022. Same as Hamas sent fighters through the Gaza fence on 7th October, 2023. It`s important to remember these dates because they suggest that before the incursions harmony existed in these places. There are people out there credible enough to swallow that.
BTW, US and UK military troops invaded western Europe at the Normandy landings, despite neither country having been invaded themselves.
HJ`s analysis.
`Putin wanted a 3 day war so far he`s nearly 700 days over that.`
I haven`t spoken to Putin myself so HJ has the advantage over me there.
Everything written about the superiority of NATO forces echoes the same sentiments from the Abwehr in 1941-42. It was inconceivable to Nazi Germany that a backward country like they imagined the USSR to be (HJ seems to share that opinion of present day Russia) and a Communist one to boot, could ever stand up to the Fascist armies that had swarmed across Europe. `Once we kick down the door, the whole damn roof will collapse,` as Hitler put it.
The Ukrainian offensive might be unusual in modern warfare in that it seems to be based on retreat. But as a military reservist himself, I`m sure HJ has heard the hoary old Russian jokes about NATO tanks. (5 gears: 1 forward, 4 reverse.)
sammer
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 8 Dec 20:07
Erratum:
`There are people out there credible enough to swallow that.`
I meant `credulous` of course.
sammer
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Fri 8 Dec 21:21
Quote:
sammer, Fri 8 Dec 19:49
`Who invaded who, sammer?`
Russia sent troops into Ukraine on 24th February 2022.
Thanks for confirming.
Now explain how a country can be described as being warmongers when their attacks were a response to being invaded?
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Fri 8 Dec 21:31
I never claimed that Ukraine were warmongers. As neighbours of Russia it is important that both countries adopt a live and let live approach. That cuts both ways.
However the Zelensky regime, initially focused on peace could you believe, was eventually captured by hard right nationalists whose hero was Stepan Bandera. The US promised unlimited riches to Zelensky`s cabal which have largely been delivered, by the way, but to no great effect. Now the tap is being turned off and Ukraine is bereft.
The US can afford to lose a war in Ukraine. They have lost plenty others before, shamelessly. Never admit defeat (as in Vietnam) and continue to fight the next imperial war. Presumably Taiwan. Or maybe the Baltic States. But the Ukrainians and the Russians do not have that luxury. They have to deal with the reality.
sammer
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Sat 9 Dec 01:11
Ref: sammer Fri 8 Dec 19:49:
[responding to Jake89`s question about the war in Ukraine,`Who invaded who?`:]
"BTW, US and UK military troops invaded western Europe at the Normandy landings, despite neither country having been invaded themselves"
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Is he REALLY suggesting UK and US forces assisting the French in France, bears comparison with Russia`s invasion of Ukraine? That would be insane.
Ref: hurricane_jimmy Fri 8 Dec 01:33
"Sammer - ...
If you genuinely think Putin isn`t scared of NATO air power, you are more of a fool than you seem."
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I`m sorry HJ - here`s the fool-o-meter reading for sammer:
It can`t get any higher.
Post Edited (Sat 09 Dec 02:07)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Sat 9 Dec 05:43
Sammer - Oh dear, we`re back to the "Bandera supporting Nazis everywhere!" pash.
You`ve also claimed that Russia is not a fascist and ultra-nationalist regime, yet there seems to be a disproportionately high number of the Russian casualties coming from the numerous ethnic minorities in rural Russia. We`ve also seen the racism of Russian football fans toward black players over the years, Roberto Carlos being one. When you are using the existence of a similar thing in Ukraine as the basis for claiming fascists are/have been very close to power in Ukraine, is this not something of a quite obvious double standard when you ignore it in Russia and actually support Putin?
Oh, and let's not forget that the Kremlin is scared of the Gays now and has banned LGBT activism under so-called "extremism" laws. The communists had similar laws. Remember, these are the people you are supporting!
You have claimed various times that Ukraine started the war with Russia in 2014. In your eyes, if that is your genuine opinion, how is that not warmongering?
Do you genuinely think Putin wanted a long conflict? Especially one where he has to direct half of Russia`s economy to a war footing?
You`ve also claimed that China attacking Taiwan would not be an "invasion", despite the CCP having never controlled Taiwan. You`ve claimed that de-dollarisation is happening, despite the fact that over 90% of world trade still takes place using USD.
Your claims about military technology and intelligence are completely bereft of any technical knowledge, yet you think you`re correct.
You engage in the very same projection that we see from the Kremlin and the CCP who claim that other parties are "being confrontational". Laughable.
The delusion is simply unreal - When did you see the UFO in yer gairden?
OAUTP - That made me smile! But yeah, we continually see the avoidance of uncomfortable facts such as the death rate in Avdiivka and its just quite sad tbh.
Post Edited (Sat 09 Dec 05:55)
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sun 10 Dec 18:06
One of the problems of the younger man is his belief that he has invented the wheel. (That’s the polite version.) I don’t know what point HJ is making about ‘ethnic minorities from rural areas’ being disproportionately represented in Russian war casualties. It may be true- although I suspect his source is close to the MoD- but would be part of a long tradition in warfare. People from poorer areas with limited opportunities are more likely to take up soldiering. That was the case with the Highland Light Infantry (glorified as ‘Hell’s Last Instalment’) inside the British army and was noted with the disproportionate number of black American troops who were killed in the Vietnam War.
As for football ‘fascism’ I can claim some expertise in that area, having spent my teenage years on occasion sharing unsegregated terraces with some of Glasgow’s finest as they denounced ‘popery’ through beer-flecked lips. Their professed hatred of Catholicism was visceral, but I always thought they reserved special contempt for Protestants like myself who viewed them as a social disgrace.
Ukraine instigated a civil war in 2014 as part of a western backed coup but I doubt the country had any desire to engage militarily with Russia. The impetus for that came from Washington, where Joe Biden last week seemed to think that Ukraine was already a member of NATO. By late March 2022 Ukraine and Russia had managed to cobble together a draft agreement to stop hostilities: to me these were not the actions of warmongering states. Neither China nor Iran flew in any envoys to order Russia not to sign any such deal. However a well known UK politician who ‘always got the big calls right’ did, by common consent of those who attended the peace talks, do that very thing in respect of Ukraine. His advice was ‘We fight on.’ Very Churchillian except that neither Johnson nor any members of his political class nor even British soldiers (officially) are engaged in the reality of what is unfolding.
So the warmongers are winning in Ukraine and Gaza. So far, at least. The Ukrainian war effort is now being undermined by lack of funding, whilst the Gaza war has unsettled the western people on simple moral grounds. The common factor in both these conflicts is the USA, the warmongering state par excellence.
sammer
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Sun 10 Dec 22:02
Ref: sammer
Post Edited (Sun 10 Dec 22:09)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Mon 11 Dec 14:55
Sammer - ah the good old patronizing and whitabootery once again. Not a surprise in the slightest!
Your "knowledge" has been shown to be wanting on numerous occasions, but like all extremists, you cling to a small cadre of sources and claim to be "enlightened". Nae doubt though you will try to claim something about me "using only western sources" as you have done previously, but meh.
The reason you probably don`t know about the ethnic minorities is because its not being reported by your favourite Russian state media outlets, for obvious reasons.
Again with regard to fascism in Russia, you simply dance around the point and play whitabootery.
The conflict in Donbas was not initiated by a "Western-backed coup" as you put it but by Russia supplying local militias in the Donbas and Crimea and sending un-marked soldiers into these regions. Also, when only 17% of the pre-war Ukrainian population were ethnic Russians, then your excuse simply won`t fly.
Ukraine will join NATO and the EU. The question is simply when.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 11 Dec 23:51
I’m not sure if that bold prediction is based on ‘Ukraine’ as defined by its borders in 2014, 2022, 2023, or perhaps later.
The major problem that has existed from the outset is that while Russians are prepared to die to keep NATO weapons out of Ukraine, there is no appetite within NATO to risk life in order to place the weapons there. I think the modern term, unfairly aimed at the Ukrainians of all people, is ‘casualty averse.’
sammer
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Tue 12 Dec 08:36
Oh it will be 2022 at a minimum but I expect it to be the 2014 borders.
Only a fool would underestimate the impact of air-superiority in warfare and the simple fact is that the Ukrainians have been fighting without it. The Russian`s haven`t used it particularly effectively either. The two reasons Putin has been talking about peace is because (i) he knows this & (ii) the Russian casualty rate and loss of armour is unsustainable and embarrassing.
The EU collectively have now apparently matched the level of aid that the US have sent to Ukraine and that figure will continue to rise. The US I`m sure will likely get the next funding package over the line fairly soon.
Another interesting statistic I saw on Oryx was that several American outlets were saying that the Ukrainians had managed to destroy over 60% of Russia`s waring capability with only the equivalent between 4-4.5% of one year`s US Department of Defence Budget. From the US perspective, that`s a truly incredible investment.
As it stands, Putin needs only not to be appear to lose. The current levels of Russian losses are simply unsustainable and the steamroller tactics simply aint achieving much. And it won`t be long until the public get tired of it because it can`t be covered up forever.
Also an interesting organisation from Buryatia who are spreading awareness about their ethnic group being disproportionately mobilised. Some interesting testimonials in there as well about them not being allowed to learn their native languages when younger either and being forced to learn Russian. According to this grouå, the 6 most affected ethnic groups are from Russia`s Far East. Are they lying?
https://www.freeburyatia.org/?lang=en
As always though, I expect you will sidestep the uncomfortable points that contradict your narrative.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Tue 12 Dec 09:16
Honestly, give up all this psychobabble, HJ. In most respects, the war is over. The West has given up the ghost. No more money boys: Ukraine is being left to face the music alone. And Putin is dancing a celebratory dance with his Arab friends.
My favourite book by a country mile, which I reckon I must have revisited 30+ times in my life, is Neil Munro`s `Para Handy Tales`. It is a collection of short stories and one of the main characters is Hurricane Jack, a lovely fella who tells many a good yarn, most of which are greatly exaggerated.
I think Hurricane Jimmy has modelled himself on Jack.
:)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Tue 12 Dec 11:22
Honestly Oz, I think you would be best served to actually thoroughly investigate whether or not you`re simply buying-in to the Kremlin and CCP narrative.
If memory serves me correctly, you are an RAF vet, no? Or am I mistaking you for another poster? If that is the case, then surely you must be aware of the value of air superiority? Or is that a term now under the domain of "Psychobable"?
I honestly have no idea who you`re talking about in your last part and haven`t read a fiction book since I was 15/16 and subjected to the "The Catcher In The Rye" for my Higher English. Honestly, no regrets on switching my focus to non-fiction after that.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Tue 12 Dec 12:20
No, I was never in the RAF, HJ. Always preferred ships to planes. Catcher in the Rye was a great book. I am surprised if it turned you off fiction.
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Tue 12 Dec 17:33
I reread the Para Handy stories a couple of years ago. I found them a bit dated; stories of a more gentle, innocent time, but perhaps that is their charm.
People of my generation will remember "the Vital Spark", which I think became a staple of Hogmanay television. Older posters may remember the original with some different cast members.
I always found the Burns connection to the Catcher in the Rye slightly bizarre.
Fans of "Field of Dreams" will recognise James Earl Jones as playing a character heavily based on Salinger.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Tue 12 Dec 22:47
Yes, McCaig, that is the charm of The Para Handy Tales to me. They take you back to more innocent times, and a Scotland that you would like to think once existed, but probably didn`t. A Scotland where the pubs were always full of cheer, there were ceilidhs and dances in the village halls at weekends, the local lasses were "fine gerls", the village policeman and the minister were there to play tricks on, and the crew of the Vital Spark were always up for a wee bit of mischief.
Whenever life gets me down, or the Pars take a heavy beating... I reach for Para Handy Tales and escape to that simple world.
Chust sublime!
:)
Post Edited (Tue 12 Dec 23:11)
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Tue 12 Dec 23:03
The original version of Para Handy on TV was my favourite. Roddy McMillan as Dougie the mate, Duncan McCrae as Para Handy, and the eternally sour and miserable John Grieve as the engineer McPhail.
I was at the old Renfrew Airport in the early sixties waiting to board the little BEA Heron to fly out to Barra with my mother when I spotted Duncan McCrae, tall and skinny, wearing a long overcoat, standing nearby.
"Look Mum! There`s Duncan McCrae!" I shouted rather too loudly. The poor man looked like a rabbit in the headlights, and scarpered off to the toilet as fast as his legs could carry him. I think he was very shy.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Wed 13 Dec 02:06
John Grieve’s character in Para Handy was in some ways the gateway to character of Private Fraser in Dad’s Army, the eternally gloom laden Scottish Calvinist. Neil Oliver gets time on GB News these days to play the same part.
HJ has told us he is an atheist and regards his study of Shakespeare and Burns at school as a bit of a waste of time. He prefers facts, in the manner of Dickens’ character Mr. Gradgrind. I doubt he has read ‘Hard Times’ so he might not therefore understand the satire such a position might attract.
But as one of the greatest scientific rationalist of the 20th century, Albert Einstein noted, a man devoted to mere facts and dismissive of creative narrative will never a mathematician nor a scientist be. Einstein gloried in his ignorance, as a child new to the world and humble to discovery. All he ever claimed to have uncovered was the best explanation for how things are. He would have scoffed not at ‘facts’ but at the certainty of those who claim them to be facts. Shakespeare reaches a very similar conclusion as did Plato before him and countless others in between.
Yet HJ is clinging on to Oryx like a drowning man to a raft. If he applies his intelligence to Zhelinsky’s visit to the USA he might find the `best explanation.’ for where Ukraine goes from here. It is being spelled out in Congress, the Senate and across world media. And the battlefield, unfortunately.
sammer
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Wed 13 Dec 14:09
I think I spotted John Grieve once in Oban – I think he used to come up on holiday. He was in “the Thirty-Nine Steps” which was another adaptation of the Buchan novel, perhaps less well regarded than the first film version (“the 39 Steps”) which was Hitchcock’s entertaining if preposterous treatment and included a young John Laurie playing a dour Calvinist crofter.
That was the one where Robert Donat is falsely accused of murder, goes on the run, deceives his pursuers on the Forth Bridge and ends up escaping from the police on a remote Scottish moor whilst handcuffed to the beautiful Madelaine Carroll. That sort of thing has never happened to me. At least, not yet.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Wed 13 Dec 14:15
Be careful what you wish for. You might find yourself handcuffed to hurricane jimmy!
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Wed 13 Dec 14:54
Aye Oz .. Duncan McCrae .. I remember his rendition of the wee c*ck sparra on the White Heather Club Hogmany show
Post Edited (Wed 13 Dec 15:40)
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Wed 13 Dec 16:49
Be careful what you wish for. You might find yourself handcuffed to hurricane jimmy!
I genuinely laughed out loud at that. But can you imagine - we`d both be gnawing our arm off at the elbow trying to get free!
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Thu 14 Dec 07:28
Dearie me, first we had the unlikely alliance of Tenruh and Parboiled teaming up to bash the SNP and now its sensible yoon McCaig and conspiracy theorist Sammer trying and failing to give me a good bashing. What is becoming of the dotnet world?! ;)
Sammer - What does my lack of religion have to do with anything? Are you going to try and give me a lesson in faith based on your authoritarian idols?
I`m very curious as to where I said I didn`t value creativity? Personally I always preferred Music to Poetry and reading. Tarrega, Albeniz were my favourites playing classical guitar and for the Orchestra it was Tchaikovsky and Profokiev. That said, my music of choice was heavy metal over anything else.
Somehow, I think the vast majority of folk would agree that learning Spanish or another language would be a far more valuable use of time than writing paragraphs of bumph on Shakespeare`s word choice!
All your claims about Oryx do is demonstrate that you lack any rudimentary understanding of computer science, which is in-keeping with your age. Likewise, your lack of knowledge of military tactics, realities and equipment shines through.
As for the funding for Ukraine, as I`ve said, the EU and US will get the aid packages over the line. The question is when. What I am genuinely curious about is whether your pals in the Russian state media will (a) Ignore it or (b) push the line of Russia being "in a war with the collective West" even more.
I do hate to break it to you though, but adding a bit of George Galloway-esque prose to your ramblings doesn`t compensate for a basis lacking factuality!
Oz - My apologies. I could swear there is one of the dotnet Aussie contingent who has previously mentioned their RAF service - maybe I`m confusing you with Townsville par.
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Fri 15 Dec 22:39
Ref: HJ
"I do hate to break it to you though, but adding a bit of George Galloway-esque prose to your ramblings doesn`t compensate for a basis lacking factuality!"
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There are some posters who take the trouble to give sources and there are others who prefer to just ramble on. Lacking respect for the reader, they set out to fool the gullible. They can write sentences, they can make analogies, but it`s all like rampant weeds in a garden.
I think the likes of HJ are careful, diligent and probably good at note-taking and keeping references/ sources.
Sammer strikes me as someone who reads and reads, watches videos, links up all sorts of stuff in his head. He doesn`t come across as someone who keeps good reference notes at all. And so, he`s not able to check conclusions he made long before, but instead, he has his fixed ideas from the past and builds on top of them, adding more wonky associations and analogies. He is quite gullible in being seduced by the kind of pseudo-journalism that passes for serious comment these days.
The differences between HJ and sammer are glaring. HJ strikes me as someone who has successfully completed a degree course, sammer does not.
Well sammer, gonna make something up - like a two.two (or tutu) from the Astrakhan University of Russian Propaganda?
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sat 16 Dec 04:06
OAUTP must be short of these allegedly witty video clips he sometimes attaches in lieu of argument. His advice is like being lectured on the seriousness of politics by a self-styled clown.
Nobody is seeking to write political essays on a football linked website but if a person wants references or sources they can type into a search engine and find them easily enough. If that is beyond their reach then academics like John Mearsheimer or Noam Chomsky can give chapter and verse for any information that I base my comments on here.
What I will not be basing any argument on are news outlets and think tanks funded by the US military, CIA, MI6 or armament manufacturers such as Raytheon. So when OAUTP says the differences between HJ and myself are ‘glaring’ then he speaks truer than he knows.
However OAUTP’s outrage at the Gaza genocide seems to have cooled somewhat: he’s not alone and I wonder if that is due to the US Congress passing a resolution that anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism are the same crime? Braverman tried a similar ruse in the UK a couple of months ago and I’d be astonished if any Starmer government didn’t try to resurrect that in some form. It worked well against Corbyn after all, the type of peacenik who would be rallying the opposition behind a Ceasefire motion were he still leader. That was a narrow escape for Warmonger, Inc.
Speaking of which, the name George Galloway can always be guaranteed to rouse Warmonger, Inc. to anger. Any UK boxer who fights for a title in the USA and survives 6 rounds is usually afforded a hero’s welcome on return, but Galloway was denied that political equivalent after he battered the US Senate on to the ropes at their hearing in May 2005.
sammer
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Sat 16 Dec 09:10
Not the first time either that Galloway went to a foreign capital to confront powerful men. You really have to salute his courage, his strength, his indefatigability.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: pacifist
Date: Sat 16 Dec 18:32
No idea how anyone can defend Putin. He is an ex mafia, kgb thug. He wants to recreate the the Soviet Union. He thinks Ukraine belongs to Russia.
He was rehearsing the invasion of Ukraine with similar tactics in Georgia and Moldova.
He uses the same tactics as Hitler did in WW2. Wherever there were pockets of Germans Hitler used that as an excuse to invade. Putin does exactly the same with the parts of Ukraine he grabbed.
If the West does fail Ukraine then Putin will try somewhere else, but that will possibly be a NAto country and then ww3 begins. So, its vital Putin fails.
But he does have Trump by the short and curlies and thats also a danger.
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Topic Originator: Dave_1885
Date: Sat 16 Dec 19:06
Quote:
pacifist, Sat 16 Dec 18:32
No idea how anyone can defend Putin. He is an ex mafia, kgb thug. He wants to recreate the the Soviet Union. He thinks Ukraine belongs to Russia.
He was rehearsing the invasion of Ukraine with similar tactics in Georgia and Moldova.
He uses the same tactics as Hitler did in WW2. Wherever there were pockets of Germans Hitler used that as an excuse to invade. Putin does exactly the same with the parts of Ukraine he grabbed.
If the West does fail Ukraine then Putin will try somewhere else, but that will possibly be a NAto country and then ww3 begins. So, its vital Putin fails.
But he does have Trump by the short and curlies and thats also a danger.
Putins running out of options after the Ukraine due to NATO - Sammer will deny it, but he will never go after a NATO nation as it would be career (and Russian Military) suicide.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sun 17 Dec 00:28
Pacifist knows Putin better than me obviously, although I have lived in Russia for 15 years. If Putin is an ex-Mafia thug then surely he would be in the USA? The home of organised crime and the the military industrial prison complex. If Putin was ex-KGB then he would be like Bush, Biden, Sullivan and Blinken and be some CIA henchman, or equivalent? In which case he would command 800 bases of military hardware across the globe, not a mere dozen. What a Loser, as the Yanks say.
If Pacifist is worthy of his adopted name then I will be happy to hear his views on Pax Americana and its achievements in the 21st century. The present death toll is around 20 million worldwide and rising as I write in Gaza. Appeasement of corporate fascism, 21st century style, is no guarantor of life. Ask any Ukrainian or child in Gaza. If you can get a response.
Putin does not fear NATO. NATO has never won a war and never could; it is a concept. It has no flag, no currency and no cohesive army any more than Al Queda. If it ever stepped foot on Russian soil then China and Iran would respond in kind, amongst others. A country that saw off Napoleon and Hitler would manage, I suggest, to see off Genocide Joe Biden or whatever version of Warmonger, Inc. replaces him. Come to Russia ye Guardian columnists and repent.
Once you grasp that Putin has no ambitions beyond his eastern borders then you have an inkling of his realpolitik as Kissinger would have called it. And understood too, for all his faults. Ukraine has been described as a `de facto member` of NATO yet Putin `went after it.` Madness it was called, on the very first Ukraine blog on this site. Same as Hamas` attack was called `madness` as well. Yet both Russia and Hamas are both stronger politically and militarily than before that `madness.` The difference is that Russia is also economically stronger, but as a nation it had options denied to Gaza of course.
The world is in flux and if the European countries do not ditch the `old gang` then they will pay a heavy price for their smooching with the Yankee dollar. But unlike Pacifist so far as I can understand his politics, I cannot see the resolution lying with right wing capitalist parties. We went that road in the 1930s and the history is surely clear to anyone of reasonable mind. But I cannot stop following it.
sammer
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Sun 17 Dec 04:03
George Galloway is another who would use his Oratory skills in an attempt to push a narrative that was rather fragile in its factuality. And that`s coming from someone who would often agree with his stance on the Middle East. I also found his anti Scottish Independence stance rather conflicting with his pro Irish Unity one.
What Pacifist says about Putin behaving like Hitler did in the 30s is absolutely correct.
"Putin does not fear NATO. NATO has never won a war and never could"...That genuinely made me laugh. The only area where Putin genuinely might have some superiority over NATO is with missile technology. NATO air power would decimate what is left of Russia`s ground forces. Ukraine has killed about 90% of the soldiers that Russia started the conflict with and destroyed about 60% of its warring capacity (i.e. equipment) with the equivalent funding of about 4% of US Department of Defence annual budget. Meanwhile, Russia is gearing about 50% of its entire economy toward the conflict. Go figure.
Working in Hong Kong in the Fintech sector at the moment, I can tell you quite clearly that the state of the Mainland Chinese economy is pretty dire. US, EU, Japanese, Taiwanese and Korean decoupling is seeing to it that there is very little capital for growth going forward. This will also affect technological development too as authoritarian states, historically, aint great at developing their own tech and opt instead to steal from Open-market states. A quick glance at Soviet fighter planes demonstrates that rather aptly. Moreover, you have the real-estate sector where there are several real-estate companies that are more indebted than ANY company has been in history and by all accounts the state railways company in China has $1Tn of debt, which it is struggling to service. When one of those goes, you`ll have a domino effect and that`s 30% of China`s economy gone. And then there`s the impeding demographic crisis as a result of the 1 child policy. You`ve also got a power struggle going on between Xi Jinping and Jiang Zemin factions and Xi has basically put China into its most "closed off" state since Mao. The thing with Xi is that he is DESPERATE for the CCP to be taken seriously on the world stage, but then their behaviour and lying over Covid has pretty much annoyed the entire world. Militarily, their Navy only has 6-10 ships that could match the range or weaponry the US, Japan or EU nations have. From what I understand, the wider Chinese public are getting pretty tired of not having universal access to healthcare, good education and so on and mock the central government quite regularly for censorship on the various Chinese platforms such as Weibo and WeChat. Telling these people that their only child has to go and fight certainly won`t go down well in a culture where family dynasty is valued so highly. China won`t be getting involved in a large war anytime soon, so let`s nip that in the bud.
And Iran, well...the Government there isn`t anywhere near having their population on side in a conflict. The Iranians, in my experience, are a very liberally minded people who will openly tell you their government is an absolute joke, although you do have an element of religious zealotry. Frankly, I don`t see it happening, but Iran doesn`t hold much weight.
Post Edited (Sun 17 Dec 04:07)
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Topic Originator: HalbeathRoad
Date: Sun 17 Dec 08:16
Has anyone here ever had their hole ?
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Sun 17 Dec 10:33
Of course not, Halbeath. Jesus said not outside of Wedlock!
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Topic Originator: pacifist
Date: Sun 17 Dec 19:51
Putin`s history is well recorded. Ex mafia, KGB thug. Responsible for multiple murders and he doesnt care.
He went all in with Ukraine. He blew it but again, doesnt care. There is very little, if anything. he wont do to save face. He, like Stalin, is sacrificing thousands of ordinary young Russians to survive.
He has a huge hope that Trump becomes President. They have Trump by the balls, literally, and the financing of his inept business operations.
If Putin wins in Ukraine and he goes for another bite, the suggestion is NATO will respond. NATO wont respond without the US and with Trump in power there is every chance they wont.
Putin will be pumping huge amounts of money, like the last time, to interfere in the US election.
Check out the Republcans refusing to fund ukraine. The Republicans? Seriously?
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Sun 17 Dec 21:55
ref: sammer, Sat 16 Dec 04:06 and all previous posts on the politics forum.
(Quote:)
"Nobody is seeking to write political essays on a football linked website but if a person wants references or sources they can type into a search engine and find them easily enough."
Funny how he uses the cop-out that it`s only a football forum. I guess I must have got him wrong. He`s only ever been writing comedy after all.
(As for finding refs and sources "easily enough", he`s lying. It`s why he doesn`t give them. Being a slovenly-thinker, he probably didn`t note them in the first place. It suits him not to give them because if he did, his claims could be easily falsified.)
(Quote:)
"OAUTP’s outrage at the Gaza genocide seems to have cooled somewhat: he’s not alone and I wonder if that is due to the US Congress passing a resolution that anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism are the same crime?"
Yeh it must be true that, although I`ve posted about the abominations being carried out by the Israeli military in Gaza - I immediately took the opposite position because of a "US Congress resolution" - supposing there even is such a resolution - which again, I may take for granted because I`m being told it by the self-proclaimed Voice Of Reason In All Things.
I think I came across him before - as Warren R. Sole, aka Stu Pid-Nit.
Is sammer that same guy? The hallmarks are undeniable.
As sammer has explained that this is only a "football-linked website," i.e. not to be taken seriously - and just a vehicle for his strange brand of comedy - I`ll carry on with my "witty video clips" which I`m sure raise a wee smile wi` some posters now and again.
Post Edited (Sun 17 Dec 21:56)
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Sun 17 Dec 22:04
Ref: HalbeathRoad Sun 17 Dec 08:16
"Has anyone here ever had their hole ?"
-------------------------------------------
I wonder who this could be?
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 01:27)
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Sun 17 Dec 22:31
Galloway’s opinion on Irish/Scottish Independence was always contradictory although I notice he has started to revise his position on the latter recently.
As a man with hands-on knowledge of NATO air capacity, HJ is unsurprisingly of the opinion that it would obliterate any enemy reckless enough to confront it. If he didn’t believe that then he wouldn’t be allowed to play at weekend soldiers. His 90% Russian casualty rate quoted is a figure supplied by……the Ukrainian military. This from a man who continually warns us against being duped by propaganda, to which fortunately he –by his own account- is immune.
I don’t know if news travels slowly from the Chinese mainland to Hong Kong, but the one-child policy of China no longer applies. Even when it did, exceptions were allowed in rural areas which as HJ must know are fertile recruiting grounds for the military in every country. The demographic crisis he attributes to China is being played out in the affluent West, camouflaged to some extent by mass immigration. Further East, in South Korea and Hong Kong, the fall in birth rate is becoming a serious political problem. The ‘DINKY’ lifestyle may be nearing the end of its lifespan.
sammer
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Mon 18 Dec 00:39
Actually Sammer, the 90% figure comes from US intelligence reports and various free Russian sources such as TV Rain have acknowledged the casualty figures of 13,000 in Avdiivka and 315,000 (excl Wagner) to be "about right". They`ve been pretty accurate throughout the conflict. Of course, anything that doesn`t fit your narrative is labelled "exaggerations by the West". Putin called Western concerns about him intending to attack Ukraine as "Western Hysteria". And what happened then?
Again, the Russians don`t have a combat-ready 5th Generation fighter whereas NATO has hundreds of them stationed in Europe. On that factor alone, they already have a disadvantage in the air. Simple. Do you actually understand what a 5th generation fighter is?
I`m well aware that the one child policy has ended. In fact there have been several attempts in the mainland to encourage people to have children that have by and large failed. The economic effects of the one child policy will be felt for generations to come - its not a case of policy over, problem fixed. Demographic issues are seen in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan but China is currently in the early stages of this and none of these countries suffered the simultaneous mass Youth Unemployment that is currently going on in China. The simple fact is, China will never reach it full potential with the CCP in power. Like Putin, the CCP top dogs know they would never survive the corruption investigations that would follow their demise.
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Topic Originator: onandupthepars
Date: Mon 18 Dec 01:47
It has been established that sammer-bot has been trying all along to entertain us with his own brand of comedy. He`s not much good at it - not much good with words at all really - but I came across something that could help him: sign language. If he worked at it, it could open a whole new world for him. Here are some examples:
Potentially life-changing for the likes of sammer-bot and anyone whose thoughts are trapped in a cultish whorl of anti-UK, pro-Russian propaganda.
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 01:59)
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Mon 18 Dec 03:16
Putin made it patently clear from the outset why he invaded Ukraine. It had nothing to do with an ambitious onslaught on Western Europe and everything to do with an assertive defence of his country`s borders. For a considerable part of the 20th Century, Ukraine was an integral part of the Soviet Union, and the reality is that many people in eastern Ukraine regard themselves as Russian.
Hurricane Jimmy accused me of being influenced by the propaganda of Russia and, very oddly, the Chinese Communist Party. On the contrary, now that I am a retired gent, I have plenty of time to research subjects in the same thorough manner I did in my career.
He should know that things have moved on considerably from the days when we had to rely solely on the mainstream media and the declarations of our political leaders. There are a multitude of independent and increasingly reliable sources on the internet. And I am not talking about certifiable loons like Alex Jones and Ben Shapiro, or populist bulldust merchants like Joe Rogan, or the remarkably stupid Murdoch mouthpiece, Times Radio.
In Joe Rogan`s defence, he is mainly responsible for popularising the long-form interview, which has challenged the established orthodoxy and overcome the constraints of concision found in conventional media. But others have taken it several steps forward, and today, we have bright and intelligent experts in many fields offering free masterclasses on any subject you like.
Anyone with an inquiring mind should be able to obtain a relatively detailed 360-degree understanding of an issue by listening to views from all points of the compass. In discussions on current events like Ukraine or Gaza, you can quite quickly detect if someone is a government lackey or in the pay of the military-industrial complex. And it isn`t very comforting how much time the mainstream media spends talking to these clowns rather than genuine experts.
I noticed one of our posters recently made a loose reference here to Roger Waters` fine anti-war song, `The Bravery of Being Out of Range`, suggesting there were an awful lot of armchair generals willing to send for more guns. It reminded me that Adam Smith`s book, The Wealth of Nations, written when Scotland was still licking the wounds of Culloden, talked about the human desire to go to war as long as those who order the wars get to stay safe. `Just as it ever was`, sang the Talking Heads.
This war has been an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine. In March 2022, the Russians and Ukraine were ready to sign a peace deal, but Boris Johnson, backed by the US, France and Germany, flew to Kyiv urging Zelensky to walk away from the deal and fight on with NATO`s tacit support.
Fight on, he did, and 21 months later, there are up to 500,000 Ukrainian soldiers dead, and the Russians will have gained 20% of Ukraine, more than they were prepared to settle for in March 2022. If the fighting continues, it will be 40%, and Russia will take the port of Odesa, effectively closing off the Black Sea coast to Ukraine.
Depending on who you believe, their casualty rate is somewhere between 80 and 90%. These are Slavs fighting Slavs. To all intents and purposes, this is a civil war.
The level of incompetence of the NATO/Ukraine side is bordering on criminal negligence. In interviews with The Economist and The Wall Street Journal, Zelensky outlined to the Russians what he would do in the counter-offensive. He explained where they would attack and what forces and tactics they would use.
The Russians then carefully prepared their ambushes, and the slaughter began.
Utter madness!
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 03:17)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Mon 18 Dec 05:58
Oz, frankly, there is so much misinformation in that post it`s difficult to pick where to begin.
Firstly, with regard to the reference to the CCP, I think you`d be genuinely shocked if you realised the amount of CCP money that`s being pumped into social media to peddle pro-China stories and narratives such as BRICS taking over the world (frankly the members couldn`t agree on the colour of sh**e) and de-dollarisation happening rapidly. You mention reputable independent sources, so on this topic I would recommend that you check out the likes of China Uncensored, LaoWhy86 and SerpentZA on YouTube. These guys all lived in China for years and speak the language incredibly well. Chris Chappell of CU even worked as a reporter in China for a number of years. These guys know the score and work with a number of Organisations such as The Great Translation Movement who translate a lot of the stuff on the Chinese Internet into English. You really would be surprised how much Mainland Chinese think they can hide behind the language barrier. To an extent, you can say the same about the Russians, but their internet infrastructure was created at a point when Russia was largely free (unlike China) meaning that it is very hard to control dissidence.
The 500,000 figure is roughly the total military casualties of the conflict (including Ukrainian and Russian, excl Wagner). There Have been somewhere in the region of 80,000 deaths and 120,000 wounded on the Ukrainian side with about 125,000 deaths and 175,000 wounded on the Russian side. about 90,000 of these Russians have been identified by name by BBC News Russian, who have used Russian social media to identify them. On top of this, you have the 30,000 or so killed Wagner and the further 40,000 who were wounded. US Intelligence (which is usually pretty damn accurate) reported about 315,000 and this has been backed up by the UK, France, Germany and others "lying western swines". Russian casualties while the Ukrainians are claiming in the region of 340,000. In February 2022 and February 2023, the Ukrainian armed forces didn`t even number 500,000.
You also seem to either be forgetting or be unaware certain facets of history regarding Ukraine, which I`ll include from a post I wrote back in February 2022 - I`ll stick that in a subsequent post.
I`ve been asking for weeks to see a credible reference regarding this supposed proposed Peace Deal in March 2022 and this has yet to be produced. If you have it Oz, then please share.
Frankly, if the Russians had the capability to take Odessa and close off the Black Sea to Ukraine then the would have done so already. The only wild card Russia can play is to use their troops in Transnistria and, quite probably, using the territory of another country (again) to launch an attack would result in NATO involvement.
I do agree to an extent that the NATO countries should have done more with Ukraine.
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 06:13)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Mon 18 Dec 06:10
As promised, for the historical context here are some notes that I prepared for a seminar that was part of a Russia-Ukraine-Belarus course that I took at Lund University back in 2022. (This seems to be the current iteration of the course: https://www.lunduniversity.lu.se/lubas/i-uoh-lu-%C3%96CKR10) If memory serves correctly, these were the notes I prepared for the seminar after Putin attacked in February 2022.
The main parts I would say that are missing is what we covered later regarding the Pro-Russian Party of regions being the ones who stirred up the language issue in Ukraine when language policy had not existed previously. Reading about the effect of the Brezhnev doctrines and how they created a hierarchy of cultures within the Soviet Union Personally, I`d recommend that anyone interested read this paper: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2501300 If needed I can email the pdf to anyone that can`t access it.
These are the notes:
- Ukraine composes 44Mn people, of which 17% are "ethnic Russians" and 30% are "Russian native speakers." For the most part, the West and North are predominantly Ukrainian, while the South and East become gradually more Russian. Ukrainians have made clear their desire to cut ties with Moscow and move toward the EU and NATO, while the Russians wish to remain closely linked to Moscow.
- Putin has claimed that Ukraine has no history of nationhood and was created by Lenin in 1922, when in fact they can trace their roots back to the Kievan Rus at the end of the 9th century. The Kievan Rus lands composed those of many Slavic tribes living in modern day European Russia, Belarus and Ukraine and lasted up until about 1240. This is the basis Putin`s use of the term "brotherly nations", but in reality it is akin to Sweden, Denmark and Norway all being Scandinavian. Following the demise of the Rus, much of the land lived on today by Ethnic Ukrainians was part of the Kingdoms of Galicia and then Ruthenia until 1349 when these lands became part of what would become the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth which was in turn split between Germany, Austro-Hungary and Russia. The Tsardom of Russia (the first precursor of Russia in modern form) traces its start date to 1547. The main point though is that Russia finds its origins in Ukraine (specifically Kiev), rather than the other way around. Modern day ethnics Ukrainians basically evolved from a mix of Polish, Astro-Hungarian and Russian influence - this is what makes them a unique group.
- Putin has changed laws and the national constitution in recent years, both to imprison the leaders of opposition such as Navalny and give himself a legal path to perpetual presidency. Remember, he was originally Mayor of St Petersburg became president after promising Boris Yeltsin immunity from prosecution for his involvement in rampant corruption during the chaos of the Russian 90s. He holds a PhD in Law and was a Lieutenant Colonel in the KGB - he is by no means stupid.
To be continued...
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 06:22)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Mon 18 Dec 06:12
continued:
- Generally speaking, Russians (including Putin) view the collapse of the Soviet Union as a geopolitical travesty. During the Soviet times, ethic diversity (and cultural growth of the smaller groups) was encouraged as far back as Lenin and Stalin to prevent nationalism, often at the expensive of the Russians with Soviet ideology describing them as the most developed culture in the Union. As the dominant group though, there was always a degree of Russification with the idea that Russian would be used as a common language between different groups but in the long-term this created discontent and subsequently encouraged nationalism and separatism. Much in the same way that more English will call themselves British in comparison to Scots or Welsh, big brother Russia also suffers somewhat of an imperial hangover and so views the Ukrainians and Belarussians as "one and the same". The loss of these countries from their sphere of influence would be a massive dent in their prestige and "Russian Pride", which is in sharp contrast to the views of many Ukrainians at the moment.
- Ukraine has suffered weak government since its rebirth. The Ukrainians were the second largest group in the USSR and Ukraine was considered the "breadbasket of the Soviet Union" - the modern flag symbolises the blue sky and the golden crops on the ground. Events such of the Holodomor and general treatment of the Ukrainians by the USSR have pushed many to oppose Moscow. Moscow often points to right wing elements in Ukraine, which do exist. Until recently, the Ukrainian political leadership has flitted between pro-West and pro-Moscow policy and corruption was rampant. The economy has only found a semblance of stability in the last 10 years or so and industry has historically been dependent on cheap Russian gas imports. That said, they do have a well-skilled population that appear to be ready to fight.
- In 2008, Georgia and Ukraine signalled that they intended to join NATO. At this point rebels in two regions of Georgia were encouraged to rise up and were armed by Moscow, who subsequently sent troops in as "peacekeepers". Similar happened in Crimea and Donbas following the Maidan protests in 2014. The key point is that NATO will not allow a country to join which already has an "internal conflict". This was Putin`s objective in Ukraine all along, however there are potentially legitimate arguments regarding supposed promises made to Gorbachev regarding NATO expansion Eastward back in the late 80s/early 90s.
to be continued....
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 06:15)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Mon 18 Dec 06:15
And finally...
- Other than the internet, much of the Russian media is state-controlled and the narrative that most Russians are hearing is that the West is trying to undermine Russia and even wants to attack. This has been used to promote a nationalist agenda with Putin being portrayed as the "strong defender of Russia and the Russian culture". That said, many Russians do not want a fully-fledged conflict with one of the "brotherly nations". On the subject of the internet: it would appear that Russia`s new "friend", the Chinese Communist Party, will be aiding them in building their own version of the "Golden Shield", a.k.a. the "Great Firewall".
- Putin was facing massive anti-corruption protests a only few months ago. With an ailing economy, declining popularity in the opinion polls and control over the media, does it not seem overly convenient that he suddenly turns his attentions to the Donbas when the world begins to open up again?
PS Admin - any chance you can remove the character limit for the Politics forum? Bit annoying to have to break up and edit posts - should be easy enough done by editing the HTML input attributes?
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 06:19)
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Mon 18 Dec 07:26
HJ, Thanks for the history lesson, but beyond the Kievan Rus part, which is interesting, much of the rest is reasonably well-known, given the extensive coverage of the reasons behind the war.
And Putin is certainly no mystery to us; we know he is a nasty individual, but he is clever and principled in his own way.
China? Yes, I have viewed videos of LaoWhy86 and SerpentZA on YouTube. I find them a bit spooky, particularly the South African guy, who gives me the creeps. I get where they are coming from, but I don`t know if I believe everything they say. They seem to have an agenda... CIA?
Australians have a considerable involvement in China. It is our biggest trade partner and a significant investor in our country. I firmly believe it is not our interest to be in a military alliance with America in the western Pacific. But that can wait for another day.
As for Taiwan, there is a growing view down here that the matter will be settled peacefully. China is on a charm offensive in Taiwan, offering favourable status and incentives for the Taiwanese to invest in the mainland. Money talks more effectively than guns in that part of the world—and the greater the connectivity, the less the likelihood of conflict.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3236319/mainland-china-consumer-market-still-holds-appeal-taiwanese-investors-despite-tensions
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 07:51)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Mon 18 Dec 13:08
Oz, out of those sources you posted:
- Tass is a Russian state news agency and based in St Petersburg.
- South China Morning Post is a Hong Kong-based outlet that is largely obeying the national security laws imposed by Beijing.
I`m guessing that you`re aware of the current state of Press Freedom in both Hong Kong and Russia? In fact, just today, in Hong Kong the trial of Jimmy Lai began. He was the man behind Apply Daily which was HKs best selling pro-democracy newspaper. Funnily enough, Beijing forced them to shut down.
Responsible Statecraft is one that I`ve never encountered actually, so will need to read a bit more into them.
What the Reuters article actually says is that original peace talks broke down after about 4 days of conflict. The date of the article is March 30th 2022 and it mentions very clearly that Russia was willing to make no concessions on territory. It seems that you expect the Ukrainians to simply roll over and accept Russian subjugation, as Sammer does?
I actually worked for a Taiwanese company for a few years and visited there a few times. If you expect the Taiwanese, especially the young, to submit to China then that simply won`t happen, much like how the Ukrainians will never trust the Russians again. The CCP are essentially trying to use the threat of war to bully and get what they want, but the reality is that they can`t match the US or Japan on the seas and they are just continuing to alienate themselves by magicking up ancient "documents" that they claim show their "historic rights" to control of the South China Sea.
As for Australia, they would be better placed to focus on trade links with ASEAN countries, India, Taiwan, Japan and Korea rather than China as these are growth markets whereas China will not grow at the same levels as ASEAN or India without major political reform. The top dogs in the CCP will never allow that because they will never survive the corruption trials that would follow.
It seems that you`re ok with "might is right" prevailing. It is rather disconcerting how prevelent this opinion and the admiration of authoritarian leaders seems to be among your and Sammer`s generation. To me it makes no sense when the majority of you would have grown up with parents who experienced the Second World War.
Post Edited (Mon 18 Dec 13:11)
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Mon 18 Dec 20:55
HJ, I am sorely tempted to respond with an old saying from my childhood, Away and teach your grannie to suck eggs. Instead, I shall Haud ma Wheesht.
:)
I`ve already explained my research methodology. I seek views from the four points of the compass and then make an assessment. Generally, it works.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 18 Dec 22:56
There’s often an Oedipal undercurrent to HJ’s posts, although his historical account of Russia/USSR/Ukraine is largely accurate to my ageing eyes. However I can’t agree that Navalny is a significant figure in Russia; he is an irritant to the government much like Nigel Farage is in the UK. And the demonstrations against corruption, at least the ones focused on Pushkin Square in Moscow, were certainly not ‘massive.’
The Istanbul draft agreement has been commented on by a number of delegates including from Ukraine, Germany and Israel. The consensus is that a deal seemed possible in late March 2022 but that USA/UK were hostile to the idea. Rather than ‘roll over’ and accept Russian hegemony the Ukrainian government was given an opportunity to acknowledge the reality: that Russian affiliated citizens in the East of Ukraine were not going to ‘roll over’ to a Kiev regime which had overthrown the Yanukovich government by force. That would have been an acceptance that ‘might was right.’
On the matter of corruption I would assume that the Chinese government is no more corrupt than most western versions. It’s true the CCP no longer retains the death penalty for corruption but it’s some stretch of the imagination to believe their corruption could come close to that of the 800 families who control US politics (led by the Biden crime family) and even the UK where Sunak, Johnson, Hancock and their offspring like Michelle Mone are at liberty to loot the public purse. Far from facing the death penalty, they are normally rewarded with a seat in the House of Lords, so the corruption is institutionalised.
sammer
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Wed 20 Dec 08:24
Oz - the issue with that logic arises though if two points of your compass are lacking basis in factuality and that is very often the case with Chinese and Russian news outlets. Why else are Hong Kong and Beijing chasing people like Jimmy Lai? do you think state-controlled media in authoritarian states can be trusted?
Sammer - Oh dear Sammer, so with that Oedipal comment you`re insinuating that I have some kind of inherent aggression toward my father? Sounds like a wee bit of the same projection used by the Kremlin and the CCP to me.
Again with the whitabootery. Do you honestly thing that Mainland China is a proper meritocracy? Or do you think that those who are in the bosom of the CCP ruling party are getting their children into Tsinghua University and similar institutions? You won`t convince ANYONE that the US or UK are anywhere near the corruption levels in China and Russia. The stuff that you say on here is basically that same as you see in Russian street interviews on the likes of 1420 etc on YouTube.
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