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 Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Bletchley_Par  
Date:   Fri 6 Oct 02:21

Results

Labour - Michael Shanks = 17,845 (58.4%) +23.9%
SNP - Katy Loudon = 8,399 (27.5%) -16.7%
Conservative - Thomas Kerr = 1,192 (3.9%) -11.1
Liberal Democrats - Gloria Adebo = 895 (2.9%) -2.3
Scottish Green - Cameron Eadie = 601 (2.0%) +2.%

Turnout = 37.19%
Swing = 20.4% SNP to LAB

Big result for Labour bad night for everyone else.

If replicated in a GE they`d win 42 out of 59 seats.


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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy  
Date:   Fri 6 Oct 03:05

Interesting result for sure. Hopefully will light a few fires under the SNP and prompt the exit of Humza in favour of Cherry or Smith. That said, I`m interested to see whether this would be reflected in a Holyrood poll.
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Tenruh  
Date:   Fri 6 Oct 04:45

Smiths part of the problem, he`d lose half the membership vote.

Cherry would certainly clear out the trash, but what would remain would be interesting.

Full clear out needed, but that won`t happen as Cherry is devisive in many members eyes also.

The Murrells have a lot to answer for.

Imagine what the party conference will be like in 10 days time? That said it's only the wage earners and hangers-on that turn up nowadays.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-67024349

Post Edited (Fri 06 Oct 05:21)
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Dave_1885  
Date:   Fri 6 Oct 07:41

A 37% turnout shows the true thoughts on politics and voting in the current climate…
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Fri 6 Oct 07:52

That turnout is similar to many other by election turnouts though the years.

And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Fri 6 Oct 19:17

By elections with only 1/3 (ish) turnout are dubious indicators of a General Election result.

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Fri 6 Oct 22:01

Actually according to Professor John Curtice , by-elections with turnouts like yesterday (which is only a couple of percent lower than the norm) are often indicators of what will happen in a general election in broad terms.



Post Edited (Fri 06 Oct 22:02)
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: jake89  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 10:15

Wasn`t the previous voter % way higher in that constituency?

Would still agree with the Prof. regardless. It`s not like the additional 30k of voters would all be SNP. It`d probably be the same result but with higher numbers.
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 10:55

Sorry I should have been clearer. When I say only slighter lower than the norm I mean lower than the norm for by-elections this century.

And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: wee eck  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 11:01

The outcome of the police investigation into the SNP`s finances could affect voting at the General Election (assuming it has been completed by then!). It seems a lot of SNP voters abstained on Thursday but they might be motivated to return at a GE. The Tories claim their vote was down because some of their traditional supporters voted tactically to get the SNP out. Also, Labour threw an awful lot of money and personnel at this campaign, which they would be unable to replicate on a grand scale at a GE. There was also the `Margaret Ferrier effect` which was peculiar to this vote.

There are so many different factors to consider it must be very difficult to extrapolate a national outcome from one by-election,

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Tad Allagash  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 11:03

By-elections usually have a much lower turnout than General Elections.

For example, the West Lancashire By-election in February had a turnout of just 31% compared with 72% in the 2019 GE. So the 37% turnout in Rutherglen and Hamilton (compared to 67% in 2019) isn’t that low.

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 11:21

It`ll be interesting to see the expenses that were incurred by the labour party, considering the amount of MP`s they brought up from England. 🤔
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: wee eck  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 11:27

It was reminiscent of the way unionist MPs flooded into Scotland during the 2014 referendum. The circus has moved on now though and they can return to the Westminster bubble.

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Parboiled  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 12:01

Tactical voting surely played a part in this.

The majority of Westminster seats have a combined majority of Unionist votes but these are split, allowing a Nat to sneak in. If the Unionist parties got their act together we could eradicate Seperatism from our Bonny land..

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: wee eck  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 12:09

Why not just have a referendum if you`re so confident about the `unionist vote`?

Post Edited (Sat 07 Oct 12:27)
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Parboiled  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 13:08

You’re a glutton for gubbings Eck…

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: jake89  
Date:   Sat 7 Oct 13:14

I`m just assuming Keir Starmer will be saying England can`t be self-governed given the failure to deliver a simple railway line?
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Tue 10 Oct 18:48

"If the Unionist parties got their act together we could eradicate Seperatism from our Bonny land.."

If Thomas Kerr`s performance in Rutherglen & Hamilton West is indicative - it`ll need a major league performance to get the Tory act together.

4% of a 37% turnout is embarrasing, even by minority party standards.

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Tenruh  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 09:00


https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,after-rutherglen-can-the-snp-regain-the-momentum
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Parboiled  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 13:43

I see Mhairi Black threatened to resign her seat immediately if one of her team didn’t get put on the list of her potential replacements. Got her way.

Following on from the rumours that another SNP MP got selected as candidate over a long serving SNP councillor because her rich daddy made a large donation, all is stinky in the Scottish National Potty

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: jake89  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 16:28

Who was that, Parboiled?
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: sadindiefreak  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 17:07

Quote:

jake89, Wed 11 Oct 16:28

Who was that, Parboiled?


He is talking sh1te as normal.

There are seats where current MP`s are standing against uncontested.

Then there are seats where the sitting MP will face a contest. These are already open for voting by SNP members in those constituencies.
Results for those come out on 12th October.

Then on 12th October as well, voting opens on all other seats where SNP MP`s are retiring/standing down and non SNP seats. Outcomes expected 26th October.

So no, nobody is a candidate by virtue of a donation being made, no Councillor has been overlooked because of any supposed donation.
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Tenruh  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 17:56

Is this the 0ne you refer to Parbo?
https://wingsoverscotland.com/news-roundup/

Post Edited (Wed 11 Oct 18:21)
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Andrew283  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 20:35

Quote:

sadindiefreak, Wed 11 Oct 17:07

Quote:

jake89, Wed 11 Oct 16:28

Who was that, Parboiled?


He is talking sh1te as normal.

There are seats where current MP`s are standing against uncontested.

Then there are seats where the sitting MP will face a contest. These are already open for voting by SNP members in those constituencies.
Results for those come out on 12th October.

Then on 12th October as well, voting opens on all other seats where SNP MP`s are retiring/standing down and non SNP seats. Outcomes expected 26th October.

So no, nobody is a candidate by virtue of a donation being made, no Councillor has been overlooked because of any supposed donation.


I`m almost shocked our elderly Yoon poster is ignorant of such things
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Parboiled  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 21:14

Wings have indeed nailed it T.

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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Tenruh  
Date:   Wed 11 Oct 21:24

Quote:

Parboiled, Wed 11 Oct 21:14

Wings have indeed nailed it T.


👍
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: Tenruh  
Date:   Thu 12 Oct 09:48

A bit of favouritism here me thinks....If they can fix the leaders election why not any of the clique?
All aboard the devolution gravy train

https://yoursforscotlandcom.wordpress.com/2023/10/12/well-will-he-get-an-answer/

Post Edited (Thu 12 Oct 09:49)
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Fri 20 Oct 10:20

Labour scoop another two seats in by election wins down south. Incredible swings from the Conservatives to Labour. Labour are heading to landslide victory in twelve months.

And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: veteraneastender  
Date:   Fri 20 Oct 10:57

Yet again the turnout indicates the general apathy of the electorate to our outdated voting system.

Especially in by elections which won’t alter who is in power.
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert  
Date:   Sun 3 Dec 10:04

And just when you thought you could change the UK government, this lot come along!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/02/keir-starmer-praises-margaret-thatcher-for-bringing-meaningful-change-to-uk

No wonder people don`t vote!
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks  
Date:   Sun 3 Dec 11:20

He also heaped praise onto Clement Atlee and Tony Blair. Why is he trying to appeal to such a broad base? He`d be better concentrating on a far narrower group of the electorate and therefore increase the likelihood of the Conservatives remaining in power after the next election.

And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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 Re: Rutherglen and Hamilton West By-election
Topic Originator: wee eck  
Date:   Sun 3 Dec 11:45

Starmer is a man of principles - just like Groucho Marx.

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