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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Mon 13 Apr 07:07
There's a sobering article in The Spectator this week that predicts the hastening of the post-American world and the dawn of a new world order where Asia, most notably China but also South Korea, take centre stage.
The hastening, of course, is hugely assisted by the reactions of various countries to the coronavirus.
The generally poor performance of the US, UK, Italy, France and much of the EC has been countered by generally good responses by China, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Hong Kong. Only Germany, Holland and Sweden appear to get plus marks in the European context.
The article points out that, up to now, the rest of the world has largely looked towards America and Europe for "soft power" democratic values. That looks likely to change quite quickly now that everyone has witnessed the lack of robustness of the western economies.
The US has left a deteriorated image of the wealthiest and most developed great power. This could soon hasten a post-American world, just as the beginning of the 20th century saw a post-British world or the 19th century a post-France world.
The last paragraph of the article is worth reproducing here, for its warning is stark...
"This is where things stand today, and we have not even begun to see how successfully states will surface from the pandemic. Success, or lack of it, will have even greater consequence for states’ future power, not in terms of soft power, but the hard power of a nation’s economy. That will be the real test that will condition the realignment of the world’s great powers. And the frightening thing is that history suggests that when great power realignment takes place, wars follow."
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Topic Originator: ipswichpar
Date: Mon 13 Apr 07:55
I do not trust the numbers out of China one jot.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Mon 13 Apr 09:06
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The Swedes and the Dutch have both recorded death tolls that put them in the top fifteen countries that have been worst hit and if you factor in the population sizes and look at the "deaths per million population"; they are both in the top twelve countries that have been impacted the worst.
The Dutch are in a slightly worse position than us on a per capita basis at the moment although that could well change.
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Topic Originator: parsfan
Date: Mon 13 Apr 09:23
I was surprised to see The Netherlands being given some credit there. I should be returning home today from a week there and followed the news a lot last month. The impression I had was them having a bit of a head-in-the-sand approach, certainly no better than here.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The universe is ruled by chance and indifference
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Mon 13 Apr 11:48
I have no idea what the world is going to be like in 2021, but I would hesitate before declaring any countries as 'winners' for the handling of this pandemic.
Paradoxically, it could be countries like Italy, Spain, France, the UK, and the US who have faster economic recoveries if it turns out that half their populations have been infected by the summer. They could essentially move to protecting only the most vulnerable while normal life resumes for more than 90 percent of the population.
Some of the 'successful' Asian countries might need to partially close themselves off the the rest of the world and monitor cases for many years to come. Their main hope will be an effective vaccine, but I think the probability of finding one is well below 50 percent. I hope I am wrong.
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Topic Originator: storminNorman
Date: Mon 13 Apr 12:13
financially we alive today will be paying for this shutdown for the rest of our lives our GDP will have gone through the roof,but we get up shake ourselves down and get on with it.
as for war possibly coming in the near future are we not technically at war and have been for a long while?
any thoughts of a world war are in my opinion a non starter (unless one of Nuclear nations want to fire a bomb or two) due to the fact war effects massively the one thing all countries want back on track their finances.also not waving any pro USA flag here but their military power is probably at the highest it has ever been,no country could in reality withstand a full on attack from America for any length of time.
spending alone is significantly enormous compared to any other world power.
US in the region of 660billion$
while the Russians spend less than 70billion$
China maybe 220billion$
the highest spending organisation believe it or not is NATO with spending of over 1000billion$
so i cant see a war as no one actually wins and certainly not China or Russia in fact NATO forces in Europe probably have enough in the locker to take care of Russia.
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Mon 13 Apr 12:36
I think your argument is flawed StorminNorman.
Who is to say it is a World War?
Could it be a Civil War? ... You bet!
The French aristocracy never saw the revolution coming and neither did the Russian czars.
The ingredients for societal civil wars are gathering in the US, the UK, most of the European community, Brazil, Russia, and yes, China too...
It is a powderkeg just waiting to explode.
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Topic Originator: Wotsit
Date: Mon 13 Apr 13:50
China has been the dominant global economy for most of human civilisation, with the last 200 years or so being a blip - which looked like it could be reversed during some of our lifetimes before the pandemic and is looking even more likely now.
"Who you are and what you feel comes not just from inside you, but from where you are in the power structure"
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Topic Originator: storminNorman
Date: Mon 13 Apr 14:01
yes i suppose looking at the bigger picture it could mean internal strife and insurgencies within our own borders or any other countries borders are a possibility but it all still relies on cash either having plenty or more likely not having enough for the majority to live on.
China and their economy are now far to reliant on the US market that's why Trumps trade war and sanctions hit them so hard.
my point on any world war due to events happening remain the same as my post above Oz.
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Topic Originator: sammer
Date: Mon 13 Apr 14:50
I think the destruction of the Twin Towers in 2001 will be seen by historians as equivalent to the sinking of The Titanic: a symbol of an empire in decline. But empires in decline can last a long time partly due to their accumulated military muscle, so I would not be too hasty in writing America’s epitaph as a major world power. The experts were doing the same after Chernobyl symbolised the demise of the Soviet system which was destroyed a few years later. Yet Russia today remains a major player on the world stage.
The fact that NATO has the largest military budget should really explode the idea that it is a defensive coalition, yet this is widely accepted within the western world. However money or weaponry does not guarantee a war will be won. When you take geography into account there is no way imaginable that either Russia or China could ever be conquered by conventional warfare and in the event of a NATO attack they would almost certainly offer a united front.
I don’t anticipate any large scale conflicts but the first casualty for the USA might be further erosion of the dollar as a reserve currency. This is certainly an issue they would wage war to protect, as the late Saddam Hussein and late Gaddafi could confirm, but they are more likely to pick on weaker countries to intimidate the others rather than take on a country its own size.
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Topic Originator: storminNorman
Date: Mon 13 Apr 18:14
agree with most of sammer's post but i have serious doubts that China would ever support the Russians in any major conflict,they have had issues with Russia over the centuries they would however rush to support North Korea one of the main reasons the US don't launch any sort of attack in that fragile region.
i would cation you can only push the US so far in reality they have far to many war mongering generals.
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Mon 13 Apr 19:22
Perhaps we'll see some addressing of the rich-poor divide. Seems ridiculous that nurses are grafting day in, day out for barely the average UK wage yet a bunch of useless oafs can argue across a room and get paid over double that and charge expenses on top.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Mon 13 Apr 19:45
Quote :-
Topic Originator: Wotsit like | nolike
Date: Mon 13 Apr 13:50
China has been the dominant global economy for most of human civilisation, with the last 200 years or so being a blip - which looked like it could be reversed during some of our lifetimes before the pandemic and is looking even more likely now.
Aye correct wotsit the Western World had the edge for the last 200 years give or take (until the Western man and woman wanted a living wage ooer mrs )
But what we see emerging is the Western Worlds greed and China's eager acceptance to produce anything and everything for the West at low manufacturing costs thereby increasing profit for the Wests company's/economy
Factor in low wages ..horrendous living conditions ..No health or safety ..No safe disposal of waste .. No workers rights.. No sick pay.. The acceptance to recycle all the Wests waste .....although I think that is in the process of change due to the toxic nature of what the West is dumping on them ... under age workers etc. etc. etc. The cynic in me wonders has this been all part of the master plan when they released the virus ??..... Who knows .....time will tell
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
Post Edited (Mon 13 Apr 19:50)
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Topic Originator: storminNorman
Date: Mon 13 Apr 20:52
ohh come on Buspasspar you will get folk on here thinking your some sort of conspiracy theorist.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Mon 13 Apr 21:44
Ken stormin maybe should not have added the last sentence ach weel :)
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