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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Thu 6 May 20:08
Thought I`d just start this thread to discuss the elxrion as the results come through Friday and Saturday.
Disappointed that there is no over night count. Always an enjoyable evening no matter if it goes for or against your wishes.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Thu 6 May 20:47
It could be very interesting, but I can`t help feeling that the results don`t really matter.
An SNP majority could be effectively neutralised by a 25% swing from Labour to the Tories in Hartlepool. If that happens it will just embolden Johnson and Co. and they can continue to ignore Scotland until the next general election.
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Topic Originator: DBP
Date: Thu 6 May 20:55
I’m interested to see what happens with the list vote up here... wonder if greens and Lib Dem’s will make big gains or big losses
I did notice in the run Up, Ross kept talking about stopping an snp majority and therefore preventing a second referendum... I did wonder if that means that if the snp form a minority gov. Even if there’s an Indy majority with greens and Alba, the line will be snp didn’t get the mandate so no Indy 2
Post Edited (Thu 06 May 20:59)
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Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Thu 6 May 21:01
That will be interesting. I have a feeling that the Greens might benefit from the Alba effect. I think quite a lot of SNP supporters never really thought about `giving` their list vote to another party until now, but more might go to the Greens than to Alba.
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Topic Originator: Leamington_sPAR
Date: Thu 6 May 21:18
Quote:
aaaaaaaaaargh, Thu 06 May 20:47
It could be very interesting, but I can`t help feeling that the results don`t really matter.
An SNP majority could be effectively neutralised by a 25% swing from Labour to the Tories in Hartlepool. If that happens it will just embolden Johnson and Co. and they can continue to ignore Scotland until the next general election.
“Continue to ignore Scotland”? Is that not the point of a devolved Parliament?
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Thu 6 May 21:39
Quote:
aaaaaaaaaargh, Thu 6 May 21:01
That will be interesting. I have a feeling that the Greens might benefit from the Alba effect. I think quite a lot of SNP supporters never really thought about `giving` their list vote to another party until now, but more might go to the Greens than to Alba.
Polling indicates that is likely to happen so will be interesting to see if it becomes reality.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Thu 6 May 22:11
Is there an exit poll ?
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Thu 6 May 22:15
Apparently not according to the Scotsman.
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Thu 6 May 22:28
I think people were discouraged from hanging around Polling Places, so no exit poll.
Turn-out will be interesting.
A low turnout and BJ will say "well, you`re not that fussed".
I`m not sure who would benefit if turnout is high.
I would have anticipated a relatively low turn-out - people are a bit fed up with it all, campaigning has been difficult, and the weather has been poor.
On the other hand, there are reports of queues (although Covid restrictions may be a factor here).
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Thu 6 May 22:59
It took me about 40 minutes to vote today. It usually takes about 5 minutes. The queue was longer when I came out than it was when I went in. Lots of young people I thought but maybe that`s just a reflection of my age! It was a different venue because of Covid and not as conducive to quick processing but it did seem quite busy.
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Topic Originator: Socks
Date: Thu 6 May 23:03
I was working at today`s election, and our turnout was about 53%. This only counts those registered to vote in person rather than by post. About a quarter of people on my list had registered to vote by post and if people have gone to the effort of arranging a postal vote you`d expect that they are probably more likely to vote, so would expect total turnout in my area of 55-60% which is about normal. Given how awful the weather was, that wouldn`t be too bad if repeated more widely.
I wouldn`t take much notice of reported queues. I was in one of the smaller ones with only one station, and even we had queues occasionally, as guidance was to hold people back to only allow two at the booths at any one time as a Covid precaution. And I don`t think we had a single person standing outside today though, again, the weather might have discouraged that.
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Topic Originator: jake89
Date: Thu 6 May 23:09
Queues were bad in Edinburgh West.
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Thu 6 May 23:13
Quote:
Buspasspar, Thu 6 May 22:11
Is there an exit poll ?
Hard to do an exit poll with both a constituency and a list vote
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Thu 6 May 23:24
Hard to do an exit poll with both a constituency and a list vote
Don`t you just ask two questions?
Postal voting is more of an issue
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Thu 6 May 23:36
Quote:
McCaig`s Tower, Thu 6 May 23:24
Hard to do an exit poll with both a constituency and a list vote
Don`t you just ask two questions?
Postal voting is more of an issue
You've just answered your own question because you don't know the postal result.
Post Edited (Thu 06 May 23:38)
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 7 May 07:16
Johnson`s grip on the Conservative Party is now complete. Labour need a complete rethink how they communicate with the working class if they are to regain their footing in their traditional base.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: DBP
Date: Fri 7 May 07:39
Topic Originator: aaaaaaaaaargh
Date: Thu 6 May 21:01
That will be interesting. I have a feeling that the Greens might benefit from the Alba effect. I think quite a lot of SNP supporters never really thought about `giving` their list vote to another party until now, but more might go to the Greens than to Alba.
and that statement pretty much describes me and what i did this time round (for the first time)
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Fri 7 May 09:11
Tories take Hartlepool.
You just have to wonder what its gonna take for Labour and Lib-Dem voters and members in Scotland to realise that Social- and Liberal-democracy in Scotland are threatened by the UK? If this doesn`t do it, there`s no hope for them.
Both parties could be terrific allies in writing the constitution of an Independent Republic but they choose to cling to false hope.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Fri 7 May 11:24
That is a real shocker for Labour H.J.
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 11:40
It wasn't just a win either it was a pumping.
Looks like Fife's election results are predicted to be anniunved late Saturday afternoon.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 7 May 11:56
Won`t most of the constituency results be announced today with the regional list results tomorrow?
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Fri 7 May 12:04
When some of the voters in Hartlepool didn't even know who Starmer was, you have to wonder if the brainwashing is working!🤔🤬🤬🤬
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 12:19
I think the majority are Eck but from what I read Dunfermline was expected to be Saturday. Could be wrong.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 12:20
The ***** side of Fife expected today though 😉
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Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Fri 7 May 13:09
Lochgelly, have you never heard the story of the monkey and the good folk of Hartlepool???
Google it...
:)
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Fri 7 May 13:09
Quote:
LochgellyAlbert, Fri 7 May 12:04
When some of the voters in Hartlepool didn't even know who Starmer was, you have to wonder if the brainwashing is working!🤔🤬🤬🤬
The brainwashing has been working spectacularly for over a year now.
Carole Baskin fed Rasta to a tiger.
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Topic Originator: Parboiled
Date: Fri 7 May 13:09
Not such a shock Buspass, the Brexit party polled over 10,000 in Hartlepool at the 2019 GE. If Farage had withdrawn his candidate, as he had others, the Tories would have taken it then, no way those votes would have gone anywhere else.
Then there was the Labour masterstroke of fielding an avid EU Remainer in a solid Brexit voting area just to make defeat an even more likely!
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Fri 7 May 13:19
Topic Originator: OzPar
Date: Fri 7 May 13:09
Lochgelly, have you never heard the story of the monkey and the good folk of Hartlepool???
Google it...
:)
I have a Hartlepool rugby club tie Oz presented to me after we won the 1990 Grand Slam and it has monkeys hanging from a rope all over it :-))
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 7 May 13:21
Just heard that 48 Scottish constituency results will be announced today and the remaining 25 will be announced tomorrow along with the 56 regional list results.
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Fri 7 May 13:35
Quote:
OzPar, Fri 7 May 13:09
Lochgelly, have you never heard the story of the monkey and the good folk of Hartlepool???
Google it...
:)
Amazing Oz, pity that they didn't do the same to a certain blond haired foreigner!
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Topic Originator: Parboiled
Date: Fri 7 May 13:39
That was a Froggie spy Buspass, as recent events prove you cannae trust them.
Btw, one time Hartlepool MP Lord Mandelson has responded to calls for full scale Corbynism by pointing out Labours record in the last 11 GE’s -
Lost,lost,lost, lost, Blair,Blair, Blair, Lost lost lost lost - ruddy traitor spoiled a perfect record
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 7 May 13:44
First two constituencies declared. Orkeny and Donside. Lib Dem and SNP holds but the Conservatives increased their share by 2 and 8 percent while the snp share had dropped in Donside. Ominous if you don`t want to see the Conservatives doing well.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Fri 7 May 13:57
Possibly seeing some strategy voting from Unionists, away from Labour to tories in that area, and in Clydebank away from others to Labour. Looks like unionists are going for tactical voting no matter their preferred party
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Topic Originator: hurricane_jimmy
Date: Fri 7 May 14:21
Would worry too much about Donside TOWKs - decent proportion of people from RUK in there that work in the oil industry so I`d wait until a few more results are out there.
Always used to find real irony when you spoke to English people in Aberdeen "Oh we pay for all your extra free stuff up here". "So what do you work as up here?" "I`m in the oil mate". SMH
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 7 May 15:04
Big swing to the Tories in Banff and Buchan but not enough to dislodge the snp. Look like the Tories will be picking up seats sooner rather than later.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Fri 7 May 16:20
That made me smile parboiled
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
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Topic Originator: Parplod
Date: Fri 7 May 16:21
Constituency votes returned so far :
SNP - 414,871
Unionist Parties - 430,415
Post Edited (Fri 07 May 17:03)
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Fri 7 May 17:02
Looking like Annabelle Ewing has walked Cowdenbeath constituency with near on 50% of the vote.
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Topic Originator: sadindiefreak
Date: Fri 7 May 17:14
Quote:
Parplod, Fri 7 May 16:21
Constituency votes returned so far :
SNP - 414,871
Unionist Parties - 430,415
You are aware that somewhere between 30 and 40% of Labour voters support independence?
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Fri 7 May 17:19
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Topic Originator: Parplod
Date: Fri 7 May 17:21
Indeed I do and not all SNP supporters would support independence in the next few years.
The electorate were advised that this election would be an indicator as to whether the Scottish people wanted another referendum.
At this early stage it is certainly not a ringing endorsement.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 7 May 17:28
Doesn`t have to be a ringing endorsement. That`s how elections work. An endorsement will do quite nicely.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Fri 7 May 17:33
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 17:33
Quote:
BigJPar, Fri 7 May 17:19
Quote:
Parplod, Fri 7 May 16:21
Constituency votes returned so far :
SNP - 414,871
Unionist Parties - 430,415
They're trying that chestnut on the BBC as well. Would 100% of labour voters vote against independence?
Absolute b*ll*cks!
Got to be honest I was reading that as some achievement by the SNP. Out of 845,286 votes cast they are about 16k behind the three major opposition parties combined. I'd say that is a ringing endorsement of them especially if it continues to translate into seats.
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Topic Originator: DBP
Date: Fri 7 May 17:41
Sorry to burst your 100% of Labour area unionists bubble, but there’s a guy in garvock (my mate), staunch labour voter and still has the big yes signs he installed in his garden during Indy ref
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 17:45
Likewise there are quite a few SNP voters who are No voters. It's a bit of a pointless exercise if that's the inference the media are trying to make.
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Fri 7 May 17:51
Professor Sir John Curtice
There are clear signs of tactical voting by unionist voters in the Scottish results.
In seats where the Conservatives were second to the SNP their vote is up by three points, whereas it is down by two points in places where Labour was second to the SNP.
Conversely, the Labour vote is up by two points in seats where they are second to SNP, but down by two points in seats where the Conservatives are second to the SNP.
The scale of tactical voting by unionist voters clearly should not be exaggerated, but if it does occur in the crucial marginals the SNP are trying to win it could still be sufficient to make a difference.
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 7 May 17:52
2 Constituency gains for the SNP so fat I see; Ayr from the Tories and East Lothian from Labour.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 17:53
Looks like record turnouts in some of the constituencies that have declared which is a pleasant surprise.
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Fri 7 May 17:58
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Topic Originator: BigJPar
Date: Fri 7 May 17:59
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Fri 7 May 18:06
SNP are going to win c 49% of the vote, hopefully sneak over the 50% mark . Astounding for ONE party and a ringing endorsement from the Scottish electorate ... regardless how desperate nasty Brit nats try to spin it...
What an opportunity we missed in 2014.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 18:42
Quote:
BigJPar, Fri 7 May 17:59
Quote:
londonparsfan, Fri 7 May 17:45
Likewise there are quite a few SNP voters who are No voters. It's a bit of a pointless exercise if that's the inference the media are trying to make.
It's exactly what they are trying to infer.
Desperation if you ask me
Yeah they've quite literally just said the no vote was split between the three parties in East Lothian. Tw@s.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 7 May 18:58
Angus Robertson wins Baroness Davidson`s seat in Edinburgh Central!
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 18:59
Angus Robertson just smashed it in Edinburgh Central.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 19:23
Looks like some tactical voting in Edinburgh South with the Tories down 10% and Labour up 14%. Impressive hold.
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 7 May 20:02
Alba look set to sink without a trace. Ironically enough Alba`s biggest contribution will be to bolster the list vote of their ideological opposites in the Scottish Greens.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Rastapari
Date: Fri 7 May 20:07
Quote:
wee eck, Fri 7 May 18:58
Angus Robertson wins Baroness Davidson`s seat in Edinburgh Central!
Excellent she's an erchie.
Carole Baskin fed Rasta to a tiger.
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Fri 7 May 20:10
Angus Robertson`s win may cost the Greens their second seat in the Lothians
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Fri 7 May 20:12
Alba looking to be an absolute disaster for the Indy supporting parties forming a supermajority, who could have guessed that?
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 7 May 20:16
Davidson wasn`t actually standing for election in that seat.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: Buspasspar
Date: Fri 7 May 20:49
Jackie Baillie`s successful defence of her Dumbarton constituency means it is now unlikely that the SNP will achieve an overall majority in the new Holyrood parliament.
Her success looks as though it has been assisted by a squeeze on the third place Conservatives.
Unionist tactical voting seems to have played a key role in denying the SNP their majority in this election.
We are forever shaped by the Children we once were
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Topic Originator: The One Who Knocks
Date: Fri 7 May 21:01
Looks like it will likely be the dame amount of seats as last time for the snp. Fortunately the Greens will come to the rescue and deliver the independence majority in parliament.
And although my eyes were open
They just might as well be closed
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Fri 7 May 21:10
So unionist voters have been gaming the system? Surely not!
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 21:37
I'm actually a bit surprised by the extent of the tactical voting.
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Fri 7 May 21:42
SNP will have gained on the FPTP vote. The very vote that allows Boris’ disgusting government to rule .... If D’Hondt was introduced in WM GE Tory would not have a majority . So when Unionists try to extrapolate the results in their favour they are comparing apples with bananas. FPTP SNP landslide ...
Post Edited (Fri 07 May 21:43)
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Topic Originator: desparado
Date: Fri 7 May 22:40
Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Fri 7 May 21:37
I`m actually a bit surprised by the extent of the tactical voting.
Why ? The Unionists are gaming the system…..
What an opportunity we missed in 2014.
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Topic Originator: Andrew283
Date: Fri 7 May 23:53
Imagine saying you're a Labour voter and actually hating the SNP enough to vote Tories 🤢🤮
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Sat 8 May 09:51
The Unionist parties are already taking the line that, even if there is a majority of independence-supporting MSPs after the election, it should be the percentage of votes casts for independence/Unionist parties which decides whether there is a mandate for a referendum. So, they don`t want a referendum but they think the result of this election should be interpreted as if it were a referendum!
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Sat 8 May 12:14
Quote:
wee eck, Sat 8 May 09:51
The Unionist parties are already taking the line that, even if there is a majority of independence-supporting MSPs after the election, it should be the percentage of votes casts for independence/Unionist parties which decides whether there is a mandate for a referendum. So, they don`t want a referendum but they think the result of this election should be interpreted as if it were a referendum!
Haha, they are clutching at any straw they can. I wonder how they will move the goalposts again if that doesn't fit
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Topic Originator: red-star-par
Date: Sat 8 May 12:40
Some of the swings from Labour to the tories and vice versa are over 10%! Tactical voting from the unionist parties. Makes you wonder what sort of Labour voters would vote for the tories.
It also brings in to question how this has happened, are the parties making agreements between themselves and encouraging their voters to switch. It doesn't seem very ethical to me
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Sat 8 May 13:24
I think folk can vote whichever way they want to get the outcome that they want. There's no difference between someone voting SNP and Green to try and return more pro Indy MSPs than there is someone voting either Lib Dem, Labour or Conservative if they want to return a pro Union candidate so I don't think it is gaming the system.
As I said above though and as you've said putting a figure on the swings, I am surprised at how many voters will swap sides to try and return a Union candidate particularly swaps between Labour and Conservative and vice versa.
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Topic Originator: wee eck
Date: Sat 8 May 13:36
I don`t see what`s wrong with calling it `gaming the system`. People have always voted tactically; I certainly have. `Gaming` is just another modern word that has been invented to describe something that has always existed - like `woke`.
The fact that so many voters have voted tactically rather contradicts the unionist claim that people aren`t interested in constitutional issues and are more concerned with economic and social policies though.
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Topic Originator: londonparsfan
Date: Sat 8 May 15:02
Gaming is normally associated with cheating a system and I don't think voting tactically really is but not going to argue over semantics as ultimately I think we're saying the same thing!
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Topic Originator: Tenruh
Date: Sat 8 May 20:14
The worst gaming is when you stand in both constituency and list , Alex Rowley and Murdo Fraser the best examples.
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Topic Originator: LochgellyAlbert
Date: Sun 9 May 14:15
Speculation how DRoss is going to do Westminster and Holyrood gigs along with his flag waving duties?
First ministers questions are going to be a hoot!!
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Topic Originator: McCaig`s Tower
Date: Sun 9 May 17:32
The worst gaming is when you stand in both constituency and list , Alex Rowley and Murdo Fraser the best examples.
Also Nicola Sturgeon.
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