Dunfermline Athletic: First Quarter Review – 2026/27 William Hill Championship*
Date: Friday, 23rd Oct 2026Nine games gone, the first quarter complete. Following the weekend fixtures on 17th October, Neil Lennon`s Dunfermline Athletic sit in the Promotion Play-Off mix – and in a markedly stronger position than at the same stage last season.
Review of the opening quarter
The Headline Numbers – 2026/27 vs 2025/26:This Season (after 9 games): W3 D5 L1 – 14pts – GD +2 [7 scored, 5 conceded]
Last Season (after 9 games): W2 D3 L4 – 9pts – GD +1 [10 scored, 9 conceded]
Is Lennon`s side in a better position? Yes, absolutely. Five points better off, three fewer defeats and a defensive record that has been transformed.
Results Analysis:
From streaky to solid. Last season`s opening quarter was defined by extremes:Morton away 0-0, Airdrieonians home 2-0, Raith away 0-2, Ross County home 2-2, Arbroath away 5-0, St Johnstone away 1-2, Ayr United home 0-1, Partick Thistle home 0-2, Queen`s Park home 0-0.
A draw and a win kicked off the campaign, before a Fife Derby loss followed up by a frustrating draw at home to Ross County. A statement 5-0 win at Gayfield didn`t provide the momentum it should`ve, going the remaining four games of the opening quarter without a win, including three defeats in the last four.
This season is the inverse:
Inverness CT away 0-0, Ayr United home 1-1, Livingston away 0-2, Raith Rovers home 1-0, Arbroath away 1-1, Queen`s Park home 2-0, Greenock Morton away 1-0, Ayr United away 1-1, Livingston home 0-0.
Only one defeat – the 2-0 loss at Livingston on 22nd August – and a six-game unbeaten run to close the quarter. The problem has flipped from too many losses to too many draws. Five draws from nine is the highest in the division.
Goals: Scored and Conceded:
Conceded / Clean Sheets – The Big Improvement:
Season 25/26 saw us concede 9 goals in our opening 9 matches, with 4 clean sheets [Morton 0-0, Airdrieonians 2-0, Arbroath 5-0, Queen`s Park 0-0]. For Season 26/27, only 5 goals have been conceded in our opening 9 games, gaining 5 clean sheets in the process [Inverness CT 0-0, Raith Rovers 1-0, Queen`s Park 2-0, Greenock Morton 1-0, Livingston 0-0].
Dunfermline have gone from conceding a goal a game to 0.55 per game. That is title-challenging defensive form.
Scored – The Regression:
Season 25/26 saw us score 10 goals in our first 9 games [1.11 per game], boosted by the 5-0 win at Arbroath. Compare that to now, Season 26/27, in which we`ve only found the net 7 times in our opening 9 games [0.77 per game].Even without the Arbroath outlier, last season the Pars scored 5 goals in the other 8 games. This year they have scored 7 in 9, but never more than 2 in a game. The build-up play, as Lennon referenced after the Partick draw, has been sensational – the final ball is lacking.
Home vs Away Split
This Season:
Home: 4 games – W2 D2 L0 – 4 scored, 1 conceded – 3 clean sheets. Ayr United 1-1, Raith Rovers 1-0, Queen`s Park 2-0, Livingston 0-0. KDM Group East End Park is being turned into a fortress. Two wins and two draws show control, but those stalemates are where four extra points have been left behind.
Away: 5 games – W1 D3 L1 – 3 scored, 4 conceded – 2 clean sheets. Inverness Caledonian Thistle 0-0, Livingston 0-2, Arbroath 1-1, Greenock Morton 1-0, Ayr United 1-1. Night-and-day compared to last year – hard to beat, with 3 draws and a win on the road.
Last Season:
Home: 5 games – W1 D2 L2 – 4 scored, 5 conceded – 2 clean sheets. Airdrieonians 2-0, Ross County 2-2, Ayr United 0-1, Partick Thistle 0-2, Queen`s Park 0-0. Just one home win in the first quarter, with 2 defeats at KDM Group East End Park too.
Away: 4 games – W1 D1 L2 – 6 scored, 4 conceded – 2 clean sheets. Greenock Morton 0-0, Raith Rovers 0-2, Arbroath 5-0, St Johnstone 1-2. A mixed bag with 6 goals, but 2 defeats saw the Pars languish near the bottom of the division after the first quarter.
Improvement
Our home record has become formidable – unbeaten, compared to two defeats last year. Our away form has become resilient – 3 draws and a win on the road compared to 1 draw last season.Regression
In terms of away wins, they are similar [1 vs 1], but goalscoring has dried up both at home and on the road.Verdict: Better, Worse or Similar?
Better. At this stage last season, Dunfermline were 6th on 9 points, already 9 points off top spot, having lost four times. This season they are also 6th after the first quarter, but are on 14 points, five points better off, having lost just once. We may be in the same league position, but a completely different foundation has been built by Lennon going into the remainder of this term.Lennon has fixed the biggest problem from last year – conceding too many and losing too often.
,h4>What Needs To Stay the SameDefensive Structure: Five clean sheets in nine is promotion winning defensive form. The solidity shown to gain hard fought points and the performances put in, that have delivered 0-0s at Inverness and at home to Livingston, is something for the squad to build on as the campaign continues.
Unbeaten Mentality: The players have now managed to extend our unbeaten run in the league to six matches, to close out the quarter. They`ve given themselves a platform: they are not losing games when not at their best and that is always a trait to be proud of.
What Needs to Improve In Q2 ?
Turning Draws Into Wins: At a 55% draw rate, Dunfermline are drawing more than anyone. If two of those 1-1 and 0-0 home draws had been 1-0 wins, they would be on 18 points and 4th.Final Third Cutting Edge: Seven goals from nine games will not sustain a top-four challenge. We are too reliant on individual brilliance from guys like Josh Cooper. He has started off the season well, but we need more goals from more players.
Away Goals: 3 goals in 5 away games is amongst the lowest in the top six. We are creating the chances, we just need to convert them.
In short, Lennon has solved the soft centre that cost the Pars in Q1 last season. The next quarter is about solving the new problem it has created – scoring enough to win the games they now dominate.
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